Kilian Jornet will try to break the toughest ultra record in the books

Sage, as someone from that circle of elite ultra runners, I am sure you have analysed Kuros records at some point or another. Do you think they are as unbelievable as they look? Will Kilian crush the 24-hour mark?

S. Canaday wrote:

I know it's obviously quite a bit less than top tier road marathon guys ...

Doesn't that just prove his point? That ultras are wildly less competitive than the marathon on down?

Look at how the marathon has changed in 50 years from money pouring in. Ultra is basically at that point, the best ultra runners are the equivalent to a 2:10 marathoner. That is still faster than 99.99% of people could ever achieve if they dedicated their life to it. But there is another tier of people running those sub 2:05 marathons. Those people don't exist in ultras. Maybe someday they will.

His Instagram following alone in theory should net him 7 figures a year if he plays his cards right. I doubt he has any sponsor pressure to race here, seems like something he just wants to tackle for fun.

magellin wrote:

S. Canaday wrote:

I know it's obviously quite a bit less than top tier road marathon guys ...

Doesn't that just prove his point? That ultras are wildly less competitive than the marathon on down?

Look at how the marathon has changed in 50 years from money pouring in. Ultra is basically at that point, the best ultra runners are the equivalent to a 2:10 marathoner. That is still faster than 99.99% of people could ever achieve if they dedicated their life to it. But there is another tier of people running those sub 2:05 marathons. Those people don't exist in ultras. Maybe someday they will.

Actually Yiannis Kouros was always that "2:05" guy.

Kouros achievements are absolutely remarkable. As an example. Jacob Moss just ran 159 miles/256 k last weekend which puts him into the US team.

Kouros has 26! results over that mark. 16 of them over 270k and 12 over 280k. Only two other runners ever ran over 280k.

Kilian Jornet is probably the best and most consistent trail ultrarunner out there in the 100 mile mountain races. Can he race 24 hours flat? Absolutely.

My best guess is that if things go well Kilian can end up in the 160 mile region, which would be a remarkable result for a 100% trail runner with zero road running experience.

Dudes, Camille Herron just dropped $100,000 on a CV1 van... then again, she is a multiple World and American Record Holder and Champion, so I'm sure those performance bonuses are just straight cash (any good contract would give at least $15,000 for a World title), so these "little" events add up quite well financially.

Jornet is a freak. Like I stated earlier. I could see him giving this a go, failing, learning a ton, and then coming back and smashing it in a 2nd attempt. He has that type of intelligence with his body.

I think he has a (marginally) better chance at beating this record than the Olympic qualifying time, which was what many people thought he was aiming for some months ago.

My point was that "there is money in ultras"....probably a lot more than most road runners think. Of course road marathons (top tier) in general are way more competitive than ultras! That has always been obvious. Sure, a Comrades has like 20,000 runners and a lot of sub 2:15 guys and a few sub 2:10 guys, but it's not as competitive as the Boston Marathon. I can have a "bad race" at Comrades and still get 16th place. - whereas I have to have a "really, really good race" to get 16th at Boston. It's simply a matter of numbers.....way more people do road marathons than ultras (which are usually trail races with limited field sizes). Not that many people want to run 100-miles anyway. Marketing and sponsorship of course play a role in that (more market attention for top road shoes and top road brands for example). And of course Road marathons are an Olympic sport and and a standard distance...which is always a draw. But there is money in ultras...it is easier much to get sponsored as a 2:15 guy on the trails than on the roads. And despite ultra running being a very "niche" part of running, it probably gains most individual athletes way more social media followers and news/media headlines and attention. Look at the following Kilian has for example. 1 Million followers on Instagram.

magellin wrote:

S. Canaday wrote:

I know it's obviously quite a bit less than top tier road marathon guys ...

Doesn't that just prove his point? That ultras are wildly less competitive than the marathon on down?

Look at how the marathon has changed in 50 years from money pouring in. Ultra is basically at that point, the best ultra runners are the equivalent to a 2:10 marathoner. That is still faster than 99.99% of people could ever achieve if they dedicated their life to it. But there is another tier of people running those sub 2:05 marathons. Those people don't exist in ultras. Maybe someday they will.

Standard Setter wrote:

Dudes, Camille Herron just dropped $100,000 on a CV1 van... then again, she is a multiple World and American Record Holder and Champion, so I'm sure those performance bonuses are just straight cash (any good contract would give at least $15,000 for a World title), so these "little" events add up quite well financially.

Jornet is a freak. Like I stated earlier. I could see him giving this a go, failing, learning a ton, and then coming back and smashing it in a 2nd attempt. He has that type of intelligence with his body.

$100,000 for an RV? That are 1000 nights in a $100 hotel room. Looks like World Record holders are not necessarily good with money. Wouldn't it be better to invest this money for the time when the running career is over?

I'd be more impressed if he could run faster than the best women in the 10K. Or if he could beat my time in the marathon.

You should tell him. I’m sure he would be interested to know what ‘the orange state’ from LRC community is most impressed by.

S. Canaday wrote:

My point was that "there is money in ultras"....probably a lot more than most road runners think.

....

It's simply a matter of numbers.....way more people do road marathons than ultras (which are usually trail races with limited field sizes). Not that many people want to run 100-miles anyway. Marketing and sponsorship of course play a role in that (more market attention for top road shoes and top road brands for example).

....

But there is money in ultras...it is easier much to get sponsored as a 2:15 guy on the trails than on the roads.

And despite ultra running being a very "niche" part of running, it probably gains most individual athletes way more social media followers and news/media headlines and attention. Look at the following Kilian has for example. 1 Million followers on Instagram.

You don't need to even be that fast to make money in "ultras". It really is about social media followers and marketing. The vast majority of people either don't run or run for weight loss, do the odd turkey trot etc. and really have no clue about times. Running a marathon in 2:05 is a meaningless concept to them. So when these people hear stories about running 100 miles - now that is impressive. That will get non-runners to follow a guy on Instagram. A good example is Tony Krupicka. That dude is (relatively speaking) slow. A lot of people here would destroy him in a Turkey Trot (even when he could run). But he continues to make a living as some sort of sport ambassador even though he can't even race anymore. How many American Marathoners who can no longer race are making money just from sponsors? I'm not knocking Tony, I think it's fantastic, but Sage is right, there is clearly money in ultras and it's not just based on race success.

Another marketing move by Killian.

At this point is clear is not an alpinist neither a road/track runner.

He's doomed to fail.

totally wrote:

You should tell him. I’m sure he would be interested to know what ‘the orange state’ from LRC community is most impressed by.

Give me his phone number. I'll let him know that we will cheer for him when he runs faster than women.

I'd bet Killian is making at least as much money as Rupp, all-in. (and I'd bet that Rupp makes more than someone like Lelisa Desisa). Most of the money in niche sports such as running come from marketing, and Killian is a lot more marketable than those other two.

The Africans are unlikely to try ultrarunning unless the *prize* money increases a lot. They are smart enough to know that they'll never have access to those marketing dollars. The prize money makes it a fair fight they can actually win.

I highly doubt this. Being an Olympian is a major payday bonus (or at least a should be) and the prize money/bonuses from other major road races is obviously far greater than in ultras. However, it's been like $40,000-$50,000USD in open prize money to win an ultra like Comrades (most competitive and biggest open prize money). So it's not like there's "no money" in ultras. Win Run Rabbit Run and its like $12,000 or so. But prize money is a small part of the picture. Knowing a bit about Salomon (Kilian's main sponsor) they seem to be very generous with travel and travel benefits...so I guess if you're including that in his "all in package" could be valued as a tad higher? But in terms of base salary not even close IMO. How much [little] do you think Rupp makes?! And define "marketable"? There is a fine balance in potential ROI between someone being "famous and active on social media" vs "sheer performance and being an elite athlete"...depends on what a brand may value more... A lot of road runners (Americans or Africans) don't even know about all these niche trail-ultra races. If they did there would be a lot more 2:08-2:15 guys in these races probably. Heck, I didn't even really know about them (i.e. technical mountain running races) until I was running at Hansons (circa 2010) and saw Kilian on the cover of Running Times running on some crazy ridgeline. But it is a very niche part of distance running. Doing some "mountain race" in the Alps has a lot of barriers to entry (travel, gear, etc). It's not like you can just decide "hey I want to do UTMB next year"....you need qualifying ITRA points etc. A lot of these top guys (i.e. like Kilian) come from Skimo...which is even more super niche.

gdm wrote:

I'd bet Killian is making at least as much money as Rupp, all-in. (and I'd bet that Rupp makes more than someone like Lelisa Desisa). Most of the money in niche sports such as running come from marketing, and Killian is a lot more marketable than those other two.

The Africans are unlikely to try ultrarunning unless the *prize* money increases a lot. They are smart enough to know that they'll never have access to those marketing dollars. The prize money makes it a fair fight they can actually win.

I imagine Kilian makes closer to six figures per month than per year... His prize money alone must be 50k + per year and during busy running/skimo seasons at least double. It also wouldn't surprise me if he gets appearance fees at a lot of places he's that much of a name and instantly doubles the credibility of that race and exposure. He's Salomon's undisputed star. Salomon is several times larger than Hoka for example and it wouldn't surprise me if the athletes are on a pyramid equivalent payday with Kilian at the top of Mount Everest.

There is no doubting he is a phenomenon in his sports scene and his marketing power is even greater with all his other ventures. FKTs are sponsored. Climbs, challenges, adventures are all money makers. People want to see it and brands pay well for it. He's sponsored by several sportswear brands, mercedes, watches, equipment, tech brands... book deals, docs add it all up. Over a million followers on IG and climbing as fast as he does. Norway is not a poor country and i'm sure he's not treated to shabby by them or paid poorly for anything he does over there....

Back to the 24hr challenge though. He has the top end speed to match the world's best at this event. Kouros was hardly the marathon speedster (relatively speaking). He has done more 24hr events than people realise. mainly vert focused challenges or HR / UTMB types... btu he's also done longer and multi-stage events. No doubt he has the stamina, speed and experience... But will it all come together, will he go through the adaptations needed to really be a threat in such a short time? Previously I thought he only entered things he would win/set records. But with his recent 10k it shows he's willing to just have fun and come out of his comfort zone. Obviously nobody included him expected him to win or come close but the 24hr record is definitely more in his wheelhouse.

I doubt Kilian makes less money than Galen Rupp.

Mostly, I think Sage is coming at it from the wrong perspective. That is, like people on letsrun, from a distance running perspective, as evidenced by "Heck, I didn't even really know about them (i.e. technical mountain running races) until I was running at Hansons (circa 2010) and saw Kilian on the cover of Running Times running on some crazy ridgeline."

He is really more of an outdoors icon that crosses over into a lot of places. (The fact that you saw him on the cover of Running Times is proof of this, rather than the opposite). He is more popular globally than Rupp, and not only that, those people that recognize him are a lot more enthusiastic about him than those that recognize Rupp. If you walk into any REI store, more people will know Kilian than Rupp. Kilian pushes a ton of Salomon product through his huge social media presence. He's (had ghost)written a few books. He was National Geographic Adventurer of the Year more than once. He had a feature written about him in the NYtimes magazine as "the all-terrain athlete". These are not the exploits of someone who is a "very niche part of distance running."

Alavisca wrote:

I imagine Kilian makes closer to six figures per month than per year... His prize money alone must be 50k + per year and during busy running/skimo seasons at least double.

And who are you and how old are you? I'm not sure how in touch you are with prize money in MUT Running (again like I mentioned above it's not that much).

Six figures a month? You have to be joking or totally not in touch with the realities of the market IMO. But again, this is LetsRun where everybody makes $500,000+ a year, runs sub 14:00 for the 5km and has a super model wife....but I digress....

Yes, I'm aware Kilian is a "great outdoor athlete and brand ambassador". I honestly don' t know much about Skimo (except it is fairly niche and the gear is fairly expensive), but again I highly doubt Kilian is making nearly as much off the sport as Galen Rupp. Salomon skis aren't even that good in the high end skimo market. I do agree he is way more marketable (at least online) and to a much broader outdoor audience and he seems personable then Galen though.

I'm also (somewhat) aware of what kinds of social media followings/numbers will get you paid. Let's hear about your MUT Running prize money and sponsorship and marketing experience though?....

Back to the topic at hand: According to Ian Corless this race is going down pretty soon and there is risk of snow on the outdoor track. It all sounds like pretty rushed timing for a such a stout record attempt (and yes, I'd consider that one pretty "untouchable"...much like Matt Carpenter's Pikes Peak...but again I digress...). And considering Kilian is coming of an injury from that 10km and other "flat training" this summer it is going to be really hard to crack 180 miles....which also would be very top notch. Yes, Kilian is an amazing athlete, but like I always have said his best events are 30-80km in the mountains with technical downhills. At 100+-miles he is more beatable. He's obviously also one of the very best in the world at Skimo and Mountaineering.

I don't even know why I bother posting on here anymore....I'm out on this thread.

Sage , any thought on you attempting to break the US record ?