50% = 50% wrote:
both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.
Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.
Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.
sh!tpost of the week right here
NERunner53 wrote:
Feel like LRC is being too negative, which is the norm. Rupp clearly has the potential to do it. Jager would have gone sub-8 if he didn't trip.
Is Rupp confirmed for Valencia or is that still a rumor? That could be one of his last good opportunities to run fast. He won't be close to the AR at the Olympics. Then he likely won't run a fall marathon or will take a pay day in Chicago. Boston in the spring of 2022 could be his next marathon and that won't count for record purposes. He'd be 36 for a fall marathon after that.
Problem is he is coming off of an injury but Valencia will have a good field looking to run fast if he runs it. If not I'm gonna put low odds on him getting the AR. Maybe less than 10% because then he runs Chicago a coupe more times in his late-30s before he retires. One year will be hot. One year will be windy. One year will be good but maybe he's 38 & definitely on his way out.
I feel better about Jager. I would maybe put him right around 50%. There will be plenty of fast races before and after the Olympics. Plus that race usually goes pretty quick.
I think training with Mike Smith might help him get close to that AR. Jager might have the potential. It's hard to tell how much steeple BTC's been doing
Both have the will power, the spirit. Rupp may have the physical tools more intact at present. But you never know.
Both have stellar examples of older Kenyan athletes who have been at the top.
50% = 50% wrote:
both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.
Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.
Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.
Wow, this is great news! I have a 50/50 chance of breaking the world record in the marathon too. And a 50/50 chance of winning the Mega Millions jackpot.
Neither will but Rupp has a slightly better chance. Alberto had to better dope formula so Galen should have some residuals running through his veins. Jager likely overdid it with the dope and poisoned his blood. You don't get that ripped on your own.
WhoYouGot? wrote:
Who do you think has the best/highest chance to do the following, with however long they got left in the sport,:
Rupp break American Marathon Record or Evan Jager running sub-8min steeple?
Galen has the better chance, but obviously breaking the record is not important to him. If it was he'd be racing Berlin, London, etc. He is choosing to compete - and take the big paydays - in Chicago and Boston, which also seem to have more historical significance to him. Nothing wrong with that.
lost in Kansas wrote:
50% = 50% wrote:
both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.
Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.
Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.
So phrase it this way: What is the probably or likelihood of either of these 2 events occurring? Think of it as a discrete choice model where the dependent variable is binary.
What's the probability someone will get married, or become an astronaut, or fail their stats class. You get the idea - it won't always be 50%
Why. Just why?
This is some of the most blatant trolling I've ever seen. Perhaps it's so obvious and ridiculous that people start to wonder if it isn't trolling.
It's going to come down to age and motivation.
Rupp is 34 yrs-old and has accomplished everything in running except for a gold medal and world record. If I were Galen Rupp I'd retire and spend my Sunday afternoons in my recliner drinking IPAs while watching Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers, not out on some 20 mile run in the Oregon rain.
Jager is younger at 31 yrs-old and he also has an Olympic and World medals, but not gold. Being so close to sub-8 might be the motivation that keeps him going.
My vote goes to Jager.
Your thoughts on Rupp retiring and living a sedentary lifestyle is probably why you were never a great runner
With the significant and obvious doping that has taken place this year, and the new shoes, I predict 2:03 for Rupp and 7:55 for Jager in 2021.
NiceTrollJob wrote:
Galen has the better chance, but obviously breaking the record is not important to him. If it was he'd be racing Berlin, London, etc. He is choosing to compete - and take the big paydays - in Chicago and Boston, which also seem to have more historical significance to him. Nothing wrong with that.
Yeah I sort of wonder when the next time Galen will run a fast marathon. Assume he doe the olympics next year, that is going to mess up the chances of a fast spring or fall marathon. And then if you wait a year, he is starting to get old. Of course we have no real clue to how well he has recovered. That trials marathon was nice but a 2:09:20 is about 4 mins too slow.
Evan Jager was OK this year after his foot injury. Another year and potentially he gets back to being that 8:01 guy we have seen and it isn't much of a gap to have that one outlier race where things line up and he runs 7:59.
I sort of think they are both in the 5% camp but I might favor Jager a bit more because he might actually try. Just not sure when Rupp is going to show up on a course where he can run 2:05 in the next couple years. If the olympics get cancelled and he runs like London, I would revise my choice.
TubbyTitsManBoobs wrote:
Your thoughts on Rupp retiring and living a sedentary lifestyle is probably why you were never a great runner
+1
Gnarshralper wrote:
Neither will but Rupp has a slightly better chance. Alberto had to better dope formula so Galen should have some residuals running through his veins. Jager likely overdid it with the dope and poisoned his blood. You don't get that ripped on your own.
Gotta love the people still trying to claim that Rupp, the American Distance GOAT, cheated. Cognitive dissonance is painful. Like realizing that Coronavirus is not that big of a deal.
According to Erwin Schrodinger and his famous cat, both Rupp and Jager will get the records. They will also not get the records.
Furthermore, this thread does not exist.
Jager ran 13:12 and 3:36.3 in time trial races this summer. He had been running maybe 8mo after a lot of time off. His PRs are 13:02 and 3:32.97. Given those, he could probably was in 8:06 steeple shape this summer. It seems reasonable that he is getting faster and might have a decent shot at another Olympic medal and sub 8:00.
Rupp is an amazing runner and a real competitor. He should not be counted out of the AR, but may not get the chance in a fast race.
JagerProbably wrote:
Jager ran 13:12 and 3:36.3 in time trial races this summer. He had been running maybe 8mo after a lot of time off. His PRs are 13:02 and 3:32.97. Given those, he could probably was in 8:06 steeple shape this summer. It seems reasonable that he is getting faster and might have a decent shot at another Olympic medal and sub 8:00.
Rupp is an amazing runner and a real competitor. He should not be counted out of the AR, but may not get the chance in a fast race.
I am thinking more like 8:10 but that is quibling. He was in decent shape but obviously not all the way back. How much of that was taking it slow after the olympics were delayed and how much is struggling to regain form is something you would have to be an insider to answer. Rupp is pretty much in the same boat. 2:09 is decent. It is also a long way from 2:05... People also tend to age a bit better in the marathon than the steeple.
I am hoping they stay healthy and get that last one hurrah.
JagerProbably wrote:
Jager ran 13:12 and 3:36.3 in time trial races this summer. He had been running maybe 8mo after a lot of time off. His PRs are 13:02 and 3:32.97. Given those, he could probably was in 8:06 steeple shape this summer. It seems reasonable that he is getting faster and might have a decent shot at another Olympic medal and sub 8:00.
Rupp is an amazing runner and a real competitor. He should not be counted out of the AR, but may not get the chance in a fast race.
Jager was 26 when he ran his best time. Jager will be 32 the next time he contests a 3000m steeplechase. Jager has ZERO chance, the same as Galen.
50% = 50% wrote:
knowledgeno wrote:
The above is incorrect. This is like saying you have a 50 percent chance of writing something intelligent. You either will or you won’t. This is clearly incorrect.
Guess you've never taken a statistics class.
If I roll a 6 sided die, what're the odds of getting a 6? I'll either get a 6, or I won't, so obviously 50/50.
themanontherun wrote:
50% = 50% wrote:
Guess you've never taken a statistics class.
If I roll a 6 sided die, what're the odds of getting a 6? I'll either get a 6, or I won't, so obviously 50/50.
LOL, just when I'm about to give up on letsrun I see posts that give me hope.
Probably Rupp more than Jager. Jager I think peaked with his Paris run. Next year, it will have been three years since he last ran a steeple -- a long time. Rupp is older, but his event doesn't require the skill and explosiveness that Jager's does.