Rupp or Jager???

There is ZERO chance of either happening. Both are damaged goods and now past their prime. Both could have conceivably accomplished what you propose, but not anymore.

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

50% = 50% wrote:

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

The above is incorrect. This is like saying you have a 50 percent chance of writing something intelligent. You either will or you won’t. This is clearly incorrect.

knowledgeno wrote:

50% = 50% wrote:

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

The above is incorrect. This is like saying you have a 50 percent chance of writing something intelligent. You either will or you won’t. This is clearly incorrect.

Guess you've never taken a statistics class.

Rupp has a 0.1% chance to break the marathon AR.

Jager has a 0.000000000001% chance to break 8.

Both are past their primes, and Evan much so.

50% = 50% wrote:

knowledgeno wrote:

The above is incorrect. This is like saying you have a 50 percent chance of writing something intelligent. You either will or you won’t. This is clearly incorrect.

Guess you've never taken a statistics class.

Well obviously there's a 50% change he has taken a statistics class.

*chance

50% = 50% wrote:

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

So phrase it this way: What is the probably or likelihood of either of these 2 events occurring? Think of it as a discrete choice model where the dependent variable is binary.

What's the probability someone will get married, or become an astronaut, or fail their stats class. You get the idea - it won't always be 50%

I can’t see Jager setting a steeple pr.

I think Rupp can run 2:05. It’s more about the opportunities.

50% = 50% wrote:

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Guess I'm as good as Rupp and Jager, because with this line of logic, I also have a 50/50 chance of breaking the American Record.

Rupp: 28%

Jager: 14%

Feel like LRC is being too negative, which is the norm. Rupp clearly has the potential to do it. Jager would have gone sub-8 if he didn't trip.

Is Rupp confirmed for Valencia or is that still a rumor? That could be one of his last good opportunities to run fast. He won't be close to the AR at the Olympics. Then he likely won't run a fall marathon or will take a pay day in Chicago. Boston in the spring of 2022 could be his next marathon and that won't count for record purposes. He'd be 36 for a fall marathon after that.

Problem is he is coming off of an injury but Valencia will have a good field looking to run fast if he runs it. If not I'm gonna put low odds on him getting the AR. Maybe less than 10% because then he runs Chicago a coupe more times in his late-30s before he retires. One year will be hot. One year will be windy. One year will be good but maybe he's 38 & definitely on his way out.

I feel better about Jager. I would maybe put him right around 50%. There will be plenty of fast races before and after the Olympics. Plus that race usually goes pretty quick.

Has Jager raced in the cheater spikes yet? Seems like that could take him sub-8:00 if he's in sub-8:10 shape with normal shoes.

50% = 50% wrote:

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Haha. I have a 50% of breaking every world record on the books. I’m a star.

If you’re serious and not trolling, you’re confusing binary options with actual probability.

For example, if I race a baby that can’t walk yet, yes, the two binary choices are either I win or lose, but the probability that I win the race is near 100%.

50% = 50% wrote:

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Adding those two up gets you to 100%.

50% = 50% wrote:

knowledgeno wrote:

The above is incorrect. This is like saying you have a 50 percent chance of writing something intelligent. You either will or you won’t. This is clearly incorrect.

Guess you've never taken a statistics class.

In a 100 meter footrace between Usain Bolt and Henry Kissinger there are two possible outcomes (assuming both are able to finish the race). Bolt wins of Kissinger wins.

Thus the odds of either one happening is 50%.

Where did you take that stats class?

What if they tie the record?

50% = 50% wrote:

both have the same chance of doing these things: 50%.

Rupp could either break the record or not. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

Jager could ether go sub 8, or fail to go sub 8. Two possibilities. He will do exactly one of them. Thus 1/2.

There is a 50% chance I could break the AR in the marathon by this logic if I went out and ran one tomorrow. My half-marathon PR is 73 and I haven't trained at that level in a few years.

Why do people keep making analogies to the argument that dummy put forward? He knows the argument he made. You aren’t enlightening him of anything.