Post-COVID Predictions: What will be the first mass race to actually take place?

I don't know I just hope Chicago re-opens 2021 registration and it actually happens.

Unfortunately, absent a massive change in the current COVID 19 response, I would not expect any of the big marathons to be able to hold a race until Spring of 2022. A vaccine rollout will probably not be until Fall of 2021. Priority will be to people working in high exposure jobs and people at risk for acute COVID case. So, the general public will not have access to the vaccine until winter. Hopefully, transmission will really start to decline by the end of winter and large gatherings can be held in Spring of 2022.

Precious Roy wrote:

Unfortunately, absent a massive change in the current COVID 19 response, I would not expect any of the big marathons to be able to hold a race until Spring of 2022. A vaccine rollout will probably not be until Fall of 2021. Priority will be to people working in high exposure jobs and people at risk for acute COVID case. So, the general public will not have access to the vaccine until winter. Hopefully, transmission will really start to decline by the end of winter and large gatherings can be held in Spring of 2022.

That is a depressing thought.

I think it is optimistic.

RnR SD

Precious Roy wrote:

Unfortunately, absent a massive change in the current COVID 19 response, I would not expect any of the big marathons to be able to hold a race until Spring of 2022. A vaccine rollout will probably not be until Fall of 2021. Priority will be to people working in high exposure jobs and people at risk for acute COVID case. So, the general public will not have access to the vaccine until winter. Hopefully, transmission will really start to decline by the end of winter and large gatherings can be held in Spring of 2022.

And this presumes the vaccine actually has some efficacy, which is always a crapshoot with viruses.

Precious Roy wrote:A vaccine rollout will probably not be until Fall of 2021. Priority will be to people working in high exposure jobs and people at risk for acute COVID case. So, the general public will not have access to the vaccine until winter. Hopefully, transmission will really start to decline by the end of winter and large gatherings can be held in Spring of 2022.

I'm not sure why you think this, but it has no basis in reality. It's not what is being reported by the media. It's not what my friends at CDC or NIH are saying. It's not what my friends in consulting are advising their clients. There is a consensus that an approved vaccine will be available very early in 2021, if not in 2020. Yes, it will take a while to vaccinate a large percentage of the population, but healthcare workers will probably be getting their doses before the end of February if not sooner.

Vaccine efficacy will be the issue. We may very well have a vaccine or two in the coming months but, if they are not very effective or the virus mutates in a manner that makes the vaccine useless, then we are back to square one. It will take months to see if they work.

As races go, people fail to consider that mass races require three things: permits and road closure protection from local governments (sometimes involving multiple jurisdictions), liability insurance underwritten by a private corporation, and sanctioning by a federation. Failure to obtain even one of those equates to no race. If there are any questions about the safety or effectiveness of the vaccine, then one or all of those entities will not permit mass races to happen.

I predict all of this covid stuff will start to fade away after November 3 (or will be massively ratcheted up depending who wins).

Vaccine is a pipe dream, but therapeutics are getting really good.

If we can treat the virus efficiently enough to drop its death rate to a level comparable with the flu, then there is no further reason to have all these precautions.

At home test kits will also be a game changer and quickly drop the r below 1.

Stage three trials, which are happening now, are what will tell us how effective the vaccines are. Yes, we'll learn more once it's released to the population at large, but we should have a pretty clear picture this year.

Event insurance typically excludes infectious diseases, and at present, they're all excluding it in big, bold letters. Events are proceeding anyway. The risk of liability for catching an infectious disease is pretty tiny, and as long as the event is being put on by an LLC, people aren't worried.

Sanctioning is also unnecessary, and easy to get in any event. Only a small minority of road races are sanctioned. If you want USATF sanctioning today, you just have to waive their insurance and buy it from a third party.

Portland Hobby Jogger wrote:

Vaccine efficacy will be the issue. We may very well have a vaccine or two in the coming months but, if they are not very effective or the virus mutates in a manner that makes the vaccine useless, then we are back to square one. It will take months to see if they work.

As races go, people fail to consider that mass races require three things: permits and road closure protection from local governments (sometimes involving multiple jurisdictions), liability insurance underwritten by a private corporation, and sanctioning by a federation. Failure to obtain even one of those equates to no race. If there are any questions about the safety or effectiveness of the vaccine, then one or all of those entities will not permit mass races to happen.

# 3 on your list is completely wrong. Unless it's a national championship or Olympic Trials or something, sanctioning is completely unnecessary. I'd guess that 95% of the road races I've ever run were not sanctioned, and I've run hundreds (maybe over a thousand) of them. Of the small amount that were sanctioned, I didn't care at all that they were.

Permits are the big thing. What city will have the intestinal fortitude to the be first to permit a 10,000 person race? No one wants to be the first.

Turkey Trots and Color Runs don't need to worry about course certifications or sanctions. Marathons do. If an entrant expects to get a BQ from your event, then it must be USATF or AIMS-World Athletics certified per BAA rules. That certification also entangles you with the federation and any race director not taking advantage of a sanction and the insurance coverage that provides is a fool.

I am sad to inform you that road races are not a New World Order approved activity. Approved activities include and are limited to: wearing masks, zoom calls, burning cities, and committing suicide. Stay Safe tm

Precious Roy wrote:

Unfortunately, absent a massive change in the current COVID 19 response, I would not expect any of the big marathons to be able to hold a race until Spring of 2022. A vaccine rollout will probably not be until Fall of 2021. Priority will be to people working in high exposure jobs and people at risk for acute COVID case. So, the general public will not have access to the vaccine until winter. Hopefully, transmission will really start to decline by the end of winter and large gatherings can be held in Spring of 2022.

2022 is a little ambitious huh Roy? We need more time to get this virus under control. Maybe 2024. Don't mislead the young runners here.

Bumping this based on the news that Boston 2021 has been postponed/cancelled.

Ackley wrote:

Bumping this based on the news that Boston 2021 has been postponed/cancelled.

Right. Pretty much all mid-sized races not in Florida, Texas or Georgia will be cancelled. The great race apocalypse is upon us. Not sure how many races will return after this all said and done.

You forgot looting as an approved activity.

2022 if we don't do something about this lockdown agenda.

Maybe even 2023.

If Biden wins: next summer

If Trump wins: 2025.