7 weeks to go. What pace should I race? (marathon)

if you ran 34:32 in 10k you should very easily run sub 2:50.

Train at 3:57/4:00 pace.

When 2:49:59 is the goal, go out 4:03/k. After 15 you go 4:00. At 32 re-evaluate. Drop the Hammer and go 2:48/49 or cruise it in 2:50+.

Pikachu

2:49:xx looks very realistic on paper, but I learned the hard way that on a race day it can be all different. Why don't you start just a touch slower than that and see how your hr/effort level is after a few miles? Noone can tell you if your taper will be successful and what the conditions will be on a race day.

Ok thank you I needed these confirmations!

I must say the 10k was without any taper in a big trainingsweek.

They day before the 10k I ran a 15k and road 50k on the bike.

I will try to go out at 4:03/km and gradually work towards 3:55/km.

I'm sure that you will manage to fix it. If you have been training you have nothing to wory about. Good luck!

Thank you!

I have been training consistently 50 mpw since January 2020.

2:50 should be no problem if you don't do something crazy pace-wise at the beginning of the race. I ran a 18:3x 5K halfway through marathon training, and a 1:26 half about 6 weeks out from the marathon. My marathon mileage peaked at around 55 miles/week, and I did a 3:02 for the marathon.

dantestruyve wrote:

Thank you!

I have been training consistently 50 mpw since January 2020.

Just a little caution ... your TTs totally line up, but 50 mpw is a little light for a 2:50 marathon. Make sure you do stay conservative with your pace early on, because things might get gnarly past mile 18 with a low-mileage build if you overcook it. Good luck!

dantestruyve wrote:

Hi,

As i'm overthinking my race strategy (always want negative split) I don't know what marathon pace to shoot for. 2 weeks ago I ran a 10k in 34:32. Last weekend I did a half marathon in 1h21 (1:18 PR one year ago) on training with 159 BPM (max is +- 192).

I really want to go sub 2h50 but I don't know if it's possible for me?

I do around 60 mpw/ 100km week on average and will peak at 75mpw / 130km week in a few weeks.

Anyone has a realistic pace (min/km - km/h) for me?

The 10k lines up with a 1:16 half/2:39 full. Was the half marathon an actual time trial? 159 BPM looks closer to marathon pace than half marathon pace. Well trained runners can push into the 170s. It doesn't look like mileage is too much of an issue. 60-75 range is decent. I'd say sub-2:50 should be very attainable. Focus on strength workouts & your long runs since you're better at the shorter stuff. No clue what your training looks like but make sure your weekly workout is marathon specific (longer reps and/or high volume reps at threshold-marathon pace). I would take your long run day as a workout day and do some harder running mixed in. Long tempos. Alternating miles. Fast finish. Etc.

I would guess most people with your 10k would be asking how to turn it into sub-2:40. You can get well under 2:50.

dantestruyve wrote:

Anyone has a realistic pace (min/km - km/h) for me?

Yes. Run an even pace to finish in 2:46. You should be able to run twice your half marathon time + 10 minutes = 1:18*2 + 10 = 2:46

davethecanuck wrote:

I ran a ... 1:26 half about 6 weeks out from the marathon. My marathon mileage peaked at around 55 miles/week, and I did a 3:02 for the marathon.

This is the formula I follow: Full marathon = your half marathon time + 10 minutes = 1:26*2 + 10 = 3:02

gregmacd wrote:

davethecanuck wrote:

I ran a ... 1:26 half about 6 weeks out from the marathon. My marathon mileage peaked at around 55 miles/week, and I did a 3:02 for the marathon.

This is the formula I follow: Full marathon = your half marathon time + 10 minutes = 1:26*2 + 10 = 3:02

In my best marathon prep, I ran a 1:27 half and then a 3:04 marathon

With a 1:18 half, sub 2:50 is definitely in the cards, but I am a little concerned that your 10K time is a lot better than your half-marathon time. It might be that you did not get a chance to run a good half-marathon, but it is possible that you perform better at short distances. Also, looks like this is your first attempt at the marathon distance, and it is rare to get a perfect race on the first attempt.

For these reasons I would be conservative when marathon day comes: go out at 2:50-2:52 pace and then reassess at 20 miles. If you still feel very good, you can still break 2:50 by negative splitting even if you are a minute behind at 20 miles.

You should have no issues running sub 2:50, that 10k times points to way under 2:50.

Just one useless data point but I ran 1:17 half and 2:48 marathon (within a month of each other) on 55mpw average (12 week average). My 10k PR (35:56) is way slower than yours, and it was in a race not a TT like you.

If you actually ran a 34:32, you should be able to break 2:50 in your sleep. Especily with the mileage you're doing. It shouldn't even be close unless you go out way to fast or overtrain.

I don't understand your 1:21 half recently. I'm assuming you weren't actually racing? Just a workout? That's a terrible half marathon time compared to your recent 10k.

Hi, thank you for your answers!

The half marathon was just a training, so no time trial, no competition, just a 'tempo' run.

I know my average mileage of this year of 50mpw is a little low for marathons.. But last year i did a 2h53 marathon on a +- 40 mpw training block. This year my average is 50 mpw through the whole year. My average mileage this training period is 55-60 mpw with a peak of 70-75.

Excuse me for my english!

kind regards and thank you!

thank you! this gives me confidence! I hope to go under 2h50, I dream to go 2h45. I will do the specific workouts you adviced.

mid D guy wrote:

With a 1:18 half, sub 2:50 is definitely in the cards, but I am a little concerned that your 10K time is a lot better than your half-marathon time. It might be that you did not get a chance to run a good half-marathon, but it is possible that you perform better at short distances. Also, looks like this is your first attempt at the marathon distance, and it is rare to get a perfect race on the first attempt.

For these reasons I would be conservative when marathon day comes: go out at 2:50-2:52 pace and then reassess at 20 miles. If you still feel very good, you can still break 2:50 by negative splitting even if you are a minute behind at 20 miles.

Actually my marathon PR of 1:18 was from last year (1.5 years ago) when I ran 2h53. I didn't have the chance to race a new half marathon. In normal conditions, i am better at longer distances instead of shorter.

runnER/DR wrote:

If you actually ran a 34:32, you should be able to break 2:50 in your sleep. Especily with the mileage you're doing. It shouldn't even be close unless you go out way to fast or overtrain.

I don't understand your 1:21 half recently. I'm assuming you weren't actually racing? Just a workout? That's a terrible half marathon time compared to your recent 10k.

yes indeed, just a tempo workout. I mentioned it because of my heart rate zone/tempo.