London will be put into tier 2 lockdown on Saturday at midnight it was announced yesterday, which means a ban on household mixing indoors and discouraging people from travelling or using public transport. Health Secretary Matt Hancock told MPs this was due to an “exponential” growth in infections.
It’s not surprising that the Health Secretary has singled out rising cases as the key metric since the number of Covid hospitalisations in London was 51 on October 10th, with three deaths. That’s three out of nine million, or 0.00003%.
From Business Insider:
Speaking in Parliament on Thursday morning, the UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock said more localized restrictions were necessary in London and elsewhere to stop the “exponential” growth in infections.
“In London, infection rates are on a steep upward path, with the number of cases doubling every ten days,” Hancock said.
But are cases doubling every 10 days? Here’s the graph by specimen date.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/London-Cases-201015-1024x518.jpg
Looks to be peaking around October 8th, even allowing for the lag in reporting. The Mail has also spotted that it appears to be slowing down. Here’s further confirmation from GP data.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/RCGP201015-1024x422.png
What about Liverpool, placed in tier 3 on Wednesday? Here’s the graph by specimen date. Daily cases appear to have peaked around October 7th there, too.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/LiverpoolCases201015-1024x520.jpg
What about Madrid, the erstwhile “second wave capital” of Europe? Here is its hospital occupancy graph, in sustained decline.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/MadridHospitals201015.jpg
Despite the continuing accumulation of evidence that lockdowns aren’t needed to control the virus, the Government’s new best friend, the many-headed WHO, was calling for lockdowns again yesterday after a brief spell of discouraging them. Reuters has the details.
Urging governments to “step up” swiftly to contain a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the WHO’s European director Hans Kluge said the current situation was “more than ever, pandemic times for Europe”.
New infections are hitting 100,000 daily in Europe, and the region has just registered the highest weekly incidence of COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic, with almost 700,000 cases reported.
“The fall (autumn) and winter surge continues to unfold in Europe, with exponential increases in daily cases and matching percentage increases in daily deaths,” Kluge told an online media briefing.
“It’s time to step up. The message to governments is: don’t hold back with relatively small actions to avoid the painful damaging actions we saw in the first round (in March and April).”
Kluge’s been looking at some “reliable epidemiological models”, apparently.
“These models indicate that prolonged relaxing policies could propel – by January 2021 – daily mortality at levels four to five times higher than what we recorded in April,” he said.
But taking simple, swift tightening measures now – such as enforcing widespread mask-wearing and controlling social gatherings in public or private spaces – could save up to 281,000 lives by February across the 53 countries that make up the WHO European region, he added.
Kluge does not identify these models, so we do not know if they are published or peer reviewed. (Ferguson’s infamous March 16th model has still not been peer-reviewed). But it’s okay because Mr Kluge has seen them and he can assure us they are reliable. So on that solid scientific basis he is telling the world’s governments to take “swift tightening measures now” such as masks (for which the WHO admits there is no reliable evidence) and “controlling social gatherings”. Just like that. But do such measures work, are they necessary, and are they worth it? What does the actual data say? These questions, as always, go unanswered.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/10/16/latest-news-164/#comments