rekrunner wrote:
My opinion of 1% wouldn't be a general population figure, but more like my upper bound estimate for elite athletes in their current top shape. This leaves open the possibility that it can be less, like 0.5%, or 0%, or -1%.
It does leave the possibility that it could be less (low responder) as well as the possibility it could be higher, especially if combined with other PEDs for the synergistic effects (e.g. androgens, HGH, SARMs, etc.). It also could be higher with females as their baseline hematocrit is significantly lower then males.
As I've said many times, the evidence from these doping ring busts shows the aforementioned PEDs discovered as well as EPO and in some cases blood transfusion paraphernalia. A popular stack with dopers over the decades is EPO or transfusions combined with androgens and/or HGH (There was even a recent bust where an Ethiopian tested positive for both EPO & testosterone in the same sample). None of the EPO/blood transfusions studies have ever been conducted with the administration of these other substances. It would be very interesting to see the outcome of such a trial.
And going with your "1%" general figure for EPO alone that would be a ~2 second drop for a 3:30 1500 runner (3:30 - 3:28) and an ~8 second drop for a 13 min 5000 runner (13.00 - 12:52). This is very significant at the elite level. A 3:30 guy going to 3:28 changes a lot in and easily puts him in medal contention at major events. And a 1% improvement is on par with some of the altitude training studies conducted with elites. Altitude training raises Hct and O2-vector doping raises Hct - same outcome different methods.