Jo72 wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
So you guys really think that Shelby Houlihan ran 14:24 in traditional, 2017-ish era spikes, and Gidey ran 14:06 in Dragonflies, but the shoes confer a huge benefit on the athlete? You don't think Gidey is 18ish seconds better than Houlihan over 5000?
Maybe. But as the preview pointed out, Gidey has never won a top level 5000m race in the last 3 years. If she can run 14:06 with last night's conditions, I'd think that 2015 Genzebe D., 2016 Ayana, 2017-18 Obiri or 2019 Hassan could have run 13:59. It looked so easy that it is hard to believe how Ayana or Genzebe could miss 14:11 with several tries in good shape (Hassan never tried and I am not sure how seriously Obiri tried).
Ayana most probably. Obiri is a bit of a kicker, she could easily fail to hold pace for that long. She has faded in some races. Hassan a reluctant may be. On her last year's form, she cd have, but again, i think it's more about the athlete's current shape. You saw how some pacers in the 10k were whizzing. If you venture outside your pace for even a bit, you are done for the WR challenge. Happened to Barega in Ostrava, tried to go too fast. Once an endurance over kick type of runner like Cheptegei or Gidey is in peak form, they stand a chance. Everyone knows the pace/lap....it's holding it that is the hard part. Cheptegei can hold same high pace throughout, Gidey started a bit slower then upped it. To each their own tactics, but it's the peak shape that is the determinant.
Of course some capable athletes have been ducking the attempt, usually when you attempt and fail, it's a big disappointment. And some lack the confidence to try, the times looked too out there. Truth is except under perfect conditions, and an unusually fast paced race, most athletes are comfortable running early 27:00s and kicking for the win if they still feel strong in the 10k. 26:50s will always spread out the runners, single file with some getting lapped. So 26:17 has been that far away.