Let’s try to put names on this...
Ethiopia
Birhanu Legese, Mosinet Geremew, Kenenisa Bekele. Possibly Lelisa Desisa
They face a tough decision. They could put in Bekele who has shown flashes of greatness in the marathon, but also might have an awful race.
His dropping out plays a major factor in his selection. His last marathon was Berlin 2019, an amazing race, but already a year ago.
If he doesn’t run at Valencia or a spring marathon and preform amazing, there’s a good chance he doesn’t get selected.
Kenya is an easier selection. Kipchoge, Lawrence Cherono, and now Vincent Kipchumba.
Out of those runners I think Rupp could handily beat Kipchumba, Cherono, Bekele if he has a bad day.
The real battle will be trying to defeat Legese, Geremew (both who are still under 30) and Kipchoge.
Legese is very much bearable in non time trial scenarios, same with Geremew. Kipchoge showed some weakness in London but is still by far the favorite.
The extra year also gives Rupp time to rehab his surgery. In Atlanta he still was not 100% and dominated the field. It will be close, but I do think he stands a chance at gold.