First marathon goal setting

2:45

Everyone's different, but this is what worked for me. The higher mileage will certainly help. Another thing is to do at least one high-quality long run, build up to at least 32km, more if possible. See if you can do a long run with a large section (16km or more) at goal marathon pace.

For myself, running 2:40 off of that training would be close to impossible. I ran 2:45 a few weeks ago on a sandy course, and like to believe that I'm at least in 2:40 shape, maybe 2:35. I ran 34 minutes flat for 10k and 1:16 for a windy HM.

I do think that 2:45 could be realistic if you actually have the time, put in the miles and prepare well. You might know this, but beware: the first 30k should feel easy. In my mind, running the final 12km well is what the marathon (preparation) is all about.

Enjoy the training!

Thank you both for your thoughts. I thought I'd update with an overview of my training last week, the first week of working towards the marathon. If it affects people's opinions of what might be possible, I'd be happy to hear it; any other feedback is also welcome!

I had not taken any significant downtime before this week, in fact I had run a tough (500m elevation with several quite steep climbs) cross-country half marathon on the Saturday, though I took this more as a training run than a true race.

Monday: 14.34km steady, 57:08 minutes, 3:59 / km pace average, 171m elevation.

Tuesday: 20.1km easy, 1:23:52, 4:10 / km average, 197m elevation.

Wednesday: 5 x 5 x 200m road, 200m jog rest, 400m jog rest between sets, 15.62km, 1:10.10, averaging about 36s, range 33 - 39.

Thursday: 30.45km easy, 2:11.35, 4:19 / km average, 368m elevation.

Friday: 14.87km steady, 1:00.46, 4:05 / km pace average, 205m elevation.

Saturday: Travelling.

Sunday: 7 x 2000m road, 400m jog rest (walk first few metres), 20.99km, 1:33.21, averaging about 7:22, range 7:18 - 7:25.

Total: 116.3km (in singles), average pace 4:16 min / km, 1357m elevation.

Some notes:

1. Steady means around the aerobic threshold: staying aerobic, thus quite easy and comfortable, but flowing well and at about the limit of not pushing into more anaerobic running.

2. Easy means a degree below steady, i.e. a degree below the aerobic threshold. Very comfortable, not trying to keep up a pace at all.

3. With regard to Wednesday and Sunday, this was the first time I was running these kind of intervals on the road, using watch GPS for distance. On Wednesday it varied where the 200s took place: sometimes uphill, etc. On Sunday I ran backwards and forwards on the same stretch of road, and all the 2000s involved climbing gently about 20m then descending. The intensity on Wednesday was intended to be about 1500/mile intensity, on Sunday a degree below anaerobic/lactate threshold intensity, though with the elevation and conditions it felt closer to actually this intensity, despite the heart rate still indicating a degree below. I would usually run the 200s a little faster on the track; the 2000s are about what I would have aimed for on the track, just a touch slower, but would have typically felt quite a bit easier on the track.

4. To the extent its relevant, all of the runs are after 9pm in the dark (and no street lights, i.e. very dark, on Sunday).

5. I also did a brisk walk of about 6km in the afternoon of Monday and Thursday.

Basically I'm doing something like a Lydiard base phase, but keeping up some aerobic, or at least not too hard, intervals. I plan to keep it up for the next 2-3 weeks, after which, as mentioned in my original post, my circumstances will change and I plan begin to change some days to doubles.

Too fast average training paces for sub 02:45. My opinion: high chance to be overcooked.

I agree with Canefis, either you are running you easy run to fast or you are in much better shape than you think. Easy pace for you should be around 4:30-40/k

Thank you both for the thoughts. I actually do not know precisely what shape I'm in. In these runs I run by feel, not aiming for any particular pace; these paces feel natural and easy for the distance, staying aerobic. As Lydiard advocated (though I do it because it feels natural, not because of the advocation) I do approach the aerobic threshold on the steady runs, but it does not feel too hard. My heart rate is in the low 140s on average on these runs.

In general, I think my cardiovascular fitness is very good. As mentioned, I did a lot quality cycling over the summer, alternating with quality running days. My guess is that I am still in the process of transferring that fitness to running specificity.

I have done various sessions which might suggest better shape, e.g. 5 x 1000m with 400m jog rest average 3:15. I have not been able to run a race equivalent, but I think this is due to lack of specific preparation/lack of freshness/lack of anaerobic conditioning/etc; I think the fundamental aerobic fitness is good. In particular, I think that with good preparation, the marathon might actually be the best distance for me.

If we suppose that my training paces actually are correct, what sort of marathon goal time would people feel they would typically indicate?

Since you are planing to run marathon in april it doesn't really matter what shape you are in right now. I suggest that you do a halfmarathon cycle right now, race it towards end of the year and take that time to predict your marathon performance.

Might nudge under three if you keep cool.

My first was at Petaluma ca 1969. Had several of my xc boys with me. We planned to basically complete the thing without hurting ourselves. Had been doing 6-8 mi runs w fartleck, some hills 5 days per wk for three months prior.

All finished with out incident under 3:,30. One guy and I did 3: 15. Some walking.

No problem. We improved a lot in subsequent marathons

Run the first half as warm up and start "bearing down, to maintain" the second! Lol.

Kipchoge fan wrote:

Since you are planing to run marathon in april it doesn't really matter what shape you are in right now. I suggest that you do a halfmarathon cycle right now, race it towards end of the year and take that time to predict your marathon performance.

Absolutely! It's mainly for motivation: if someone says 'you might be able to run such and such if all goes well', it gives some motivation/confidence/inspiration :-).

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think that I'll have the opportunity to run a half marathon before the marathon. Though I'd like to run somewhere near my potential, I'm also partly viewing the next months of training as base building for next year, with the marathon providing a definite goal for that rather than being the be all and end all.

jamese1045 wrote:

Might nudge under three if you keep cool.

My first was at Petaluma ca 1969. Had several of my xc boys with me. We planned to basically complete the thing without hurting ourselves. Had been doing 6-8 mi runs w fartleck, some hills 5 days per wk for three months prior.

All finished with out incident under 3:,30. One guy and I did 3: 15. Some walking.

No problem. We improved a lot in subsequent marathons

Run the first half as warm up and start "bearing down, to maintain" the second! Lol.

Cool anecdote, but though I certainly take the point about it being the first marathon and that one can expect to improve in subsequent ones, I guess you were not being entirely serious about nudging under three! Given that I ran 30km at about 3 hour pace (without food or drink) last week and the pace felt easy, I'd be somewhat disappointed not to break 3 if I ran a marathon next week, never mind in six months :-).

Not sure how long I'll post these updates, but here is last week's training.

Monday: 15.37km steady, 1:02:23 minutes, 4:04 / km pace average, 274m elevation.

Tuesday: 19.85km easy, 1:23:58, 4:14 / km average, 284m elevation.

Wednesday: 2 x (10 x 100m + 5 x 400m) gravel road with some, mostly gentle, downhill on all reps apart from a couple of 100s, 35s jog rest in first set of 100s, 45s in second, 400m jog rest between 400s, 400m jog rest or so between the first set of 400s and the second set of 100s, roughly 1km easy uphill between the 100s and 400s; 20.09km, 1:33.45, 311m elevation, averaging about 15.9s on first set of 100s, 1:08.8 on first set of 400s, 15.3s on second set of 100s, 1:09.9 on second set of 400s. The 100s were 'relaxed fast', and I was aiming for about 5km intensity on the 400s, though they may have ended up a little faster than that.

Thursday: 25.39km easy, 1:49:35, 4:20 / km average, 440m elevation.

Friday: 13.79km steady, 54:29, 3:57 / km average, 119m elevation.

Saturday: 12.13km steady, 50:05, 4:08 / km average, 241m elevation.

Sunday: 15 x 800m pavement, 400m jog rest, 19.67km, 1:27:22, 189m, repetition average 2:46.4, fastest on last few repetitions (2:42.2 last one). Around lactate threshold intensity. All repetitions in a slight 'valley': slightly down, slightly up, sharp 180 degree turn around a little circle (pace dropped here), slightly down, slightly up/flat . Net slightly down.

Total: 126.3km (in singles), average pace 4:17 min / km, 1858m elevation.

First goal should be to finish the first marathon in good style. Run a real 10k and HM before the Marathon and plan your pacing accordingly with a race pace calculator.

Also keep in mind the Strava is overreporting and makes you look faster than you actually are.

https://lukehumphreyrunning.com/hmmcalculator/race_equivalency_calculator.php

You seem capable of 2:45, but I would caution like one poster above that the last 12K is what the prep is all about. Also, the mental factor is bigger in a marathon than any other race. I’ve felt amazing at the half mark and then destroyed 4-5 miles later.

My advice would be to go out closer to 2:50 pace and if you are still feeling great at mile 16, gradually put the hammer down.

You are a Lydiard guy therefore you should know that predicting your finish/goal time this far out shouldn't be a question right now. Get through the training. When you enter into the coordination phase approx 8 weeks out you'll start to have a better idea of what your fitness will allow you to aim for on race day.

parkerjohn wrote:

You are a Lydiard guy therefore you should know that predicting your finish/goal time this far out shouldn't be a question right now. Get through the training. When you enter into the coordination phase approx 8 weeks out you'll start to have a better idea of what your fitness will allow you to aim for on race day.

I agree. As touched on in an earlier post, it is just that it can be helpful/motivating to hear what people think might be possible at this point.

Thank you to Rainy Day too for the advice!

Thank you too to 'Frank Shorter here'.

This will be the last training update, at least for a while. I mainly just wished to mention that I did 21.6km on the track this week at 3:47 min / km average, consisting of 1600m easy, 16km tempo at what I think should be 'marathon intensity', and the rest easy. The 16km tempo timed manually (so the distance is accurate :-)) came to 59:44, i.e. 3:44 min / km average. It felt comfortable, a little fatigue over the last couple of kilometres, but nothing severe. The km splits were very consistent, all between 3:41 and 3:46, and the last four km were the quickest.

Strava gave a half marathon time of 1:19:37 including the easy stuff, but I didn't time that manually, as it wasn't a goal of the session. I had done 21.7km or so km the day before at about 4:12 min / km average (a mixture of 'steady' and 'easy', with quite a bit of elevation), and did 18km easy (4:14 min/km) the day after, also with quite a bit of elevation.

Later in the week I also did a 32.7km long run at 4:20 min / km pace with 376m elevation.

GPS on the track is garbage. Especially at that sort of distance. It is likely many minutes faster on Strava than it actually was.

As others have insinuates but not explicitly said... you are likely undervaluing 2:40-2:45, especially for someone who has never run a marathon.

More than anything right now you need some sort of a baseline to gauge your current fitness and set paces for different sorts of efforts. Why not just do a mini build up to a HM TT before doing a real marathon plan starting in 2021? If you can run 1:15 or so then 2:40 starts to become a realistic target.

Hey! Thanks for this thread. My friend was looking for related information. Him being an amateur, this helps to start things off.

Well if you did 16k in under 1h (as a training MP paced run) you should be able to run sub 2:45 with no problem. But i also agree with others that this probably isn't your marathon pace. The easiest way to predict that would be to run an all out TT or race preferably HM or 10 miler or at least 10k.