Based on the median age of 80 plus, the fact that 94% of the dead had at least two other life threatening conditions, that in at least New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, 2/3rds of the deaths took place in nursing homes where studies show the median life expectancy from entry is five months....... I believe that a vast majority (90% plus?) of these folks would have died this year had Covid never appeared.
Ahead of the Curve wrote:
Cause of death isn't an exact science so I'd guess we are probably reporting about 1/3rd more or less than the actual number of people that died from COVID. So I assume the 'real' number is probably somewhere between 150k and 300k in the US.
Worldwide, I would guess the number is probably at least twice what they are reporting. There are a lot of countries that are probably hiding deaths.
1/3d of 180k is 60k so the range on your made up scenario would be 120k to 240k, not 150k to 300k.
What evidence or logic do you have for assuming nations have hidden Covid deaths?
YES !! Probably more, friend of Herman Cain and Trump's late brother !!
CorrectorII wrote:
That's how a government that says "we are doing everything we can to control the spread" acts. Not by holding huge maskless rallies after admitting lying to the whole country on tape.
That's how a government proxy-controlled by the US acts. In a completely nazi fashion.
Nobody except the deep brainwashed pyscho wants that.
Covid deaths are minimal which is what they see in Taiwan, but they are mostly seeing the implementation of the control everything police state. It's under way in Australia too.
Are you one those of that screams "maskles rallies" are killing grandma and are selfish, but on the other side of the face saying the BLM riots are perfectly safe and reduce Covid?
"Do you believe the reported 200,000 coronavirus deaths?"
Yes. There've actually been something like 200,000+ more deaths in the last eight months than would have been expected, based on the previous few years; and the only variable that I can see is SARS-CoV-2.
And in attributing a death to the novel coronavirus I apply the but-for test: But for having the virus, would this person probably be alive? After all, hardly anyone dies from HIV itself: Most die from opportunistic infections that overwhelm their weakened immune system. Yet were it not for HIV, those people probably would not have succumbed. Similarly, most of the people who died in the flu pandemic a hundred years ago didn't die from the virus itself, but from their immune systems' overreaction to the virus; yet but for the virus, almost all would have lived.
There's a useful chart on this page, about 45% of the way down; it details, week by week, excess deaths even beyond the *upper* bound of what might have reasonably been expected, based on the last few years. Its case is clearcut:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
pot bellied pig wrote:
CorrectorII wrote:
That's how a government that says "we are doing everything we can to control the spread" acts. Not by holding huge maskless rallies after admitting lying to the whole country on tape.
That's how a government proxy-controlled by the US acts. In a completely nazi fashion.
Nobody except the deep brainwashed pyscho wants that.
Covid deaths are minimal which is what they see in Taiwan, but they are mostly seeing the implementation of the control everything police state. It's under way in Australia too.
Incorrect. That's how you carefully watch your entries into the country to prevent the spread and total under 10 deaths TOTAL for a population of 23 Million people that is right next to China and had ZERO advanced warning when covid was spreading like wildfire in that area.
Has Trump admitting that many deaths yet? If not, no.
Seven months in and still don't know anyone who has even gotten sick, never mind died.
Yes give or take. A better metric would be impact on life expectency.
David Wowie wrote:
Seven months in and still don't know anyone who has even gotten sick, never mind died.
Any of your direct friends have cancer? That's the 2nd leading cause of death in the US
David Wowie wrote:
Based on the median age of 80 plus, the fact that 94% of the dead had at least two other life threatening conditions, that in at least New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, 2/3rds of the deaths took place in nursing homes where studies show the median life expectancy from entry is five months....... I believe that a vast majority (90% plus?) of these folks would have died this year had Covid never appeared.
And the way we'll assess this argument, which I've heard from several, is by looking at the stats for the rest of 2020. If these folks were going to die anyway, then in the coming months we should see a *deficit* in total deaths. Right? I mean, according to you the great majority ("90% plus?") were going to die "this year" anyway; they just died a few months early.
Care to make a wager on whether we'll see that? Care to commit to the idea that total deaths in October/November/December will be *below* what would be normally expected?
200k below!
We can start a pool. Final number for 2020.
In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States
In 2017, a total of 2,813,503 resident deaths were registered in the United States
In 2016, a total of 2,744,248 resident deaths were registered in the United States
In 2015, a total of 2,712,630 resident deaths were registered in the United States
In 2014, a total of 2,626,418 resident deaths were registered in the United States
In 2013, a total of 2,596,993 resident deaths were registered in the United States
DanM wrote:
We can start a pool. Final number for 2020.
Nice idea, actually!
But keep in mind that it will probably be next summer before there's even an approximately accurate number for registered deaths: Some deaths take weeks and even months to be sent to the CDC.
Joedirt's response is the correct one.
Died with Covid. Not died "from" covid.
My guess: 3,117, 221.
Would be higher, but the cut in immigration matters.
Hot Pot Beefpork wrote:
Joedirt's response is the correct one.
Died with Covid. Not died "from" covid.
How about died of HIV? Zero cases?
breitbart fart bag wrote:
joedirt wrote:
Do I believe that people died with COVID in their system? Yes. Do I believe that 80%+ of those people likely died primarily as a result of something other than COVID? Yes
Kind of like how 80% of the people who died on 9/11 did so primarily because a building fell on them and not as a result of terrorists?
You’re an idiot and shouldn’t be allowed an opinion.
Actually, in your analogy, you would be the one ignoring the terrorist and laying the blame on the brick. 99.98% of people that contract COVID survive and gain immunity. In general 99.98% of people in a plane crash or bomb blast don't survive. On average there is 82 years of physical neglect and poor diet that is killing people and you are blaming the virus. Viruses come and go. They thin the herd, the weak fall and the strong survive and the gene pool is better for it.
David Wowie wrote:
Ahead of the Curve wrote:
Cause of death isn't an exact science so I'd guess we are probably reporting about 1/3rd more or less than the actual number of people that died from COVID. So I assume the 'real' number is probably somewhere between 150k and 300k in the US.
Worldwide, I would guess the number is probably at least twice what they are reporting. There are a lot of countries that are probably hiding deaths.
1/3d of 180k is 60k so the range on your made up scenario would be 120k to 240k, not 150k to 300k.
What evidence or logic do you have for assuming nations have hidden Covid deaths?
My statement is 'We are reporting 1/3rd more or less than the actual number.'
Lets dissect that statement I'm comparing two numbers, the number we are reporting, and the actual number.
Per the title of the thread, 200k will be used as the reported number for sake of simplicity. That is the known value. There are two possible options
Over Reporting... Actual Deaths + 1/3 (Actual Deaths) = reported deaths
1 + 1/3 = 4/3 so if 4/3x=200k, x = 150k
Under Reporting... Actual Deaths - 1/3 (Actual Deaths) = reported deaths
1-1/3 = 2/3 so if 2/3x=200k, x=300k
Where in the f did you come up with 180k? You are perfectly justified in disagreeing with my estimate, but it's purposefully done because there is a hard stop at 0 and I'm guessing how far we varied from the actual, not how far the actual varied from our guess. The actual is theoretically a fixed number that exists independent of our classification so the 'error' is in classification.
Also, there are a lot of articles out there indicating Mexico, Russia, India among others are underreporting covid deaths using excess death vs reported death data, but obviously you are welcome to disagree because it's like my opinion man.
