Spain/France COVID Cases are Up, Deaths are Wayyyyyy Down

End the BS wrote:

For the last two months, France and Spain have a big resurgence of cases, but practically no deaths. So what's happening? Some options:

1. Covid has mutated to a less deadly form (scientists can't seem to agree if this is true or not)

2. Covid is affecting a less vulnerable segment of the population (seems unlikely to explain massive differences in cases vs. deaths)

3. Treatment has improved dramatically (probably explains some fraction of change, but certainly not all)

4. Deaths are being counted differently (e.g., initially any infection at the time of death was coded as a Covid death, now only if it is clearly the primary cause of death). To me, this seems like the most likely explanation.

1. Broad scientific consensus is that there is no such thing as a "natural" weakening with a virus. Michael Levitt is the new darling of the COVID 19 deniers. He is a biophysicist who won a Nobel prize in chemistry. His work is in using computers to try to predict the course of chemical reactions that create new molecules. Up until COVID 19, he never did any work in epidemiology/infectious diseases. He teamed up early on in the epidemic with John Ioannidis and others at Stanford to be COVID contrarians. His latest BS is claiming that a recent Lancet article analyzing a mutation in the COVID 19 DNA shows that lockdowns are bad because they prevent the inevitable weakening of the virus into a less dangerous form. There are so many things wrong with that assertion that I just have to refer to the twitter thread by Carl Bergstrom and the very good post by Lior Prachter. Bottom line is that the really bad things that a virus does to the body is usually an accident and not a feature of the virus. That feature of the virus is independent of the evolution of the virus's ability to transmit and reproduce.

2. This is partly accurate. The recent outbreak in Europe did begin in the 18-35 demographic with lots of spread when clubs reopened in vacation destinations over the summer. Madrid is the best/worst example of this. But as time has gone by, the virus has spread to older age groups. So, the people who were first infected en masse were younger. Deaths lag infections by about 20-30 days. The outbreaks in Europe started hitting highs about at the end of August. Deaths will start peaking late in September into October, assuming that measures put in place to slow the outbreak are effective. Deaths are already increasing in Spain with the seven day average moving up to well 100 a day after being well below 100 for a long time.

3. This is also true. Back in March, emergency room physicians were grasping at straws and were overwhelmed and forced into triage situations. Health care providers are much better prepared and have much better information on what works this time around. We will not see the same mortality that we saw in the spring of 2020. But keep in mind that these hospital interventions are not preventing people from having very long hospital stays and suffering both while in hospital and long thereafter. People are not just getting a shot and going home within 24 hours. It is still a very dangerous virus.

4. Nice try. This COVID lie doesn't become true just through persistence. Death counts from COVID are very much on the low end due to lack of testing of people who die at home and who die shortly after being admitted to the hospital. The number of debatable cases of "death with COVID" is very, very low. The excess death statistics have shown that COVID is clearly a killer in at least the magnitude being reported by government statistics. You can find twitter threads cherry picking data from Germany and recent trends in Sweden (both countries have gold standard COVID 19 treatment capabilities) all day and it doesn't change the fact that COVID 19 is a killer.

Anyone in Spain (and Italy) that is hospitalized NO MATTER the reason and tests positive for dead or inactive non infectious "SARSCOV2" RNA fragments is then labeled as a Covid patient. The data is not only a mess, but also total BS.

David Wowie wrote:

CircusClown wrote:

Oh, and you can tell the BS posts by the people who 1) brush off death like it doesn't matter and 2) act as if being asymptomatic and death are the only 2 options with COVID.

Anybody who tries to minimize the death toll absolutely hasn't had anybody close to them die. And there are tens of thousands of people who haven't died that take MONTHS to recover. The long term consequences of the battle with this virus is still obviously very unclear.

You need to give it up.

It's over.

This has been BS from day one

Very convincing argument!

Allen53 wrote:

What is happening has more to do with the tests.

They are using crap protocols and amped up cycles for desired effect= false positives.

Take a look at overall mortality figures for France over the last 40 years. This year is not an aberration.

Covid is not an epidemiological event it is a business model.

It's a business model? Look, I'm all for saying you think the threat of Covid is vastly overstated and that overall deaths aren't up or something like that. But to say it's a business model? A business model from whom? Big pharma?

WHy in the world would politicians like Trump or those in Europe then go along with it? Based on how the economy was rolling, Trump had a real good shot at reelection. But you think he's in on some grand conspiracy to tank the vacation sector (he's in the hotel business) and his re-election chances so big Pharma can make money?

That might be the dumbest take I've ever since I heard a national radio host say he thought the Patriots were tanking this year. Why would the Patriots sign Cam Newton if they were tanking?

People that buy into conspiracy theories really need to think this through. Please answer my questions.

Good to see someone on these boards who knows a bit about what they are talking about.

Allen53 wrote:

Anyone in Spain (and Italy) that is hospitalized NO MATTER the reason and tests positive for dead or inactive non infectious "SARSCOV2" RNA fragments is then labeled as a Covid patient. The data is not only a mess, but also total BS.

Glad you have boots on the ground in Spain and Italy to report the FACTS!

(Can you pick me up some real parmesan while you are there?)

Allen53 wrote:

As of Sept 6th: In 2020 the total death number in the US versus 2017’s total death number was 952,398 shy of hitting 2017 death toll. That amounts to 33.9% left of the total to equal the 2017 numbers. With 118 days left in the year which is 32.3% of the year left it looks like a similar outcome to 2017.

Where are you getting these numbers from?

Using data from the CDC link below shows a US death total less than 600,000 short of 2020 reporting through week ending 9/5 and with the caveat that data in recent weeks may be incomplete.

First off quit using the term "conspiracy theory" unless you understand that conspiracy law is one of the most widely used methods of prosecution.

As you use it you appear to be dismissive and discount the possibility of how these things are planned at the highest levels of finance. You think they consolidate their fortunes by accident?

This evening I will illustrate it for you. Do you want a separate thread?

I'm guessing you have not examined the history of "pandemics" in the 21st Century. Is that so?

Answer the following four questions before we go into further detail:

1) How much of the WHO's funding comes from private business? Which industry is the largest contributor?

2) Which industry is the largest lobbying group (twice as much as the US MIC) in DC?

3) Which industry is the largest revenue stream in the US MSM?

A Scientist wrote:

Here (the US) college kids are all infected (ok, not literally) but lots and very few even seem to have symptoms. I think this IS the main driver. Old people are hunkered down. The older folks I work with are super careful and some are taking zero chances.

That makes no sense. Infected with what? The test is for human genetic material that everyone has, so everyone will eventually test positive for being human at least once. However, that is NOT a test for a virus, and since there is no test for a covid19 virus, that means no one has ever been verified to have died from it, and all the deaths attributed to a covid19 virus have been false diagnosis.

Regarding ages, I'm in my 70s, go out in public all the time with NO MASK and I'm fine.

David Wowie wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

What do you mean by "practically no deaths"?

For the last two months deaths have been significantly increasing on both Spain and France.

Since beginning of August, deaths have increased in France by around a factor of 4, and in Spain by a factor of 8.

Complete horsespit. Deaths way down since April

Try again. OP said "for the last two months" -- not "since April".

David Wowie wrote:

Why do Covid Believers just out and out lie?

I often find that what people consider and allege is a lie is really their own misunderstanding of what was said.

CircusClown wrote:

Oh, and you can tell the BS posts by the people who 1) brush off death like it doesn't matter

You have been brushing off death like it doesn't matter your whole life and never knew it. Or did your mourn for every death in the world?

ship sailed wrote:

interested reader wrote:

Don't worry wiggy, we all remember what you predicted. 2600 cases, and not one more! I'm sure you've got some good mental gymnastics to convince us all that the currently reported 6.8 million is entirely made up, and the real count remains below 2600.

Baddie - here's your prediction:

https://imgur.com/a/W9ZZ7rV

You're the jackwad you started the call out thread, aren't you? Get a life loser.

It's a business model? Look, I'm all for saying you think the threat of Covid is vastly overstated and that overall deaths aren't up or something like that. But to say it's a business model? A business model from whom? Big pharma?

WHy in the world would politicians like Trump or those in Europe then go along with it? Based on how the economy was rolling, Trump had a real good shot at reelection. But you think he's in on some grand conspiracy to tank the vacation sector (he's in the hotel business) and his re-election chances so big Pharma can make money?

That might be the dumbest take I've ever since I heard a national radio host say he thought the Patriots were tanking this year. Why would the Patriots sign Cam Newton if they were tanking?

People that buy into conspiracy theories really need to think this through. Please answer my questions.[/quote]

First off quit using the term "conspiracy theory" unless you understand that conspiracy law is one of the most widely used methods of prosecution.

As you use it you appear to be dismissive and discount the possibility of how these things are planned at the highest levels of finance. You think they consolidate their fortunes by accident?

This evening I will illustrate it for you. Do you want a separate thread?

I'm guessing you have not examined the history of "pandemics" in the 21st Century. Is that so?

Answer the following four questions before we go into further detail:

1) How much of the WHO's funding comes from private business? Which industry is the largest contributor?

2) Which industry is the largest lobbying group (twice as much as the US MIC) in DC?

3) Which industry is the largest revenue stream in the US MSM?[/quote]

Actually, the CONSPIRACY THEORY is worse than that. Trump is actually playing some sort of three dimensional chess where he simultaneously walks in step with COVID deniers by having his political appointees edit CDC guidance (just today they pulled the guidance stating that COVID 19 is transmitted via aerosols that had only been posted on Friday), make lots of statements claiming the virus going away, cured by Hydroxychloroquine, etc., holds rallies indoors without masks, and has a following that is highly antivaxxer/COVID denier ALL WHILE secretly working with Big Pharma to get everyone so afraid of the virus that they will risk taking an experimental vaccine before the election so he can get reelected.

Logic vs false beliefs wrote:

A Scientist wrote:

Here (the US) college kids are all infected (ok, not literally) but lots and very few even seem to have symptoms. I think this IS the main driver. Old people are hunkered down. The older folks I work with are super careful and some are taking zero chances.

That makes no sense. Infected with what? The test is for human genetic material that everyone has, so everyone will eventually test positive for being human at least once. However, that is NOT a test for a virus, and since there is no test for a covid19 virus, that means no one has ever been verified to have died from it, and all the deaths attributed to a covid19 virus have been false diagnosis.

Regarding ages, I'm in my 70s, go out in public all the time with NO MASK and I'm fine.

Nice, a data sample size of one!

Now, if claims had been made that COVID has infected 100% of the population then your single point counterexample would be relevant. As it is, your single data point is irrelevant.

I would say, as per the medical genius Trump--after all he knew it was airborne

back in Jan (and could have saved us all!) whereas the CDC just realized that

now--that viruses often 'just go away'.

It's a combination of resistance in the population and 'the dose makes the

poison'.

The thinking at the start was that there was no resistance to this 'novel' virus.

That is clearly not true and there is a large percentage of the population with

at least some resistance.

Since the dose makes the poison, resistance doesn't mean immune; if you inject

enough live virus into someone they are going to die. On the other hand, if

you inject a small enough amount, they will get an asymptomatic case and some

more resistance.

So children, for example, are pretty resistant to this: unlikely to get it, if they do get it

will most likely be asymptomatic, and they are extremely unlikely to pass it on.

Child to child is transmission is exceedingly rare because of that (small dose to

resistant recipient).

So when the virus first moves in to a region the most susceptible are going to get it first

and pass it along among themselves, which is the most likely to generate

deadly cases (big doses of virus into the less resistant). Once that least resistant

population has basically been worked through, further outbreaks are going to be less

severe in terms of symptoms--it just goes away.

Spain and France had severe first outbreaks, covering, I believe good percentages

of the country. So any further outbreaks are going to be less deadly.

The opposite example would be Australia. They had a first, very small outbreak. Their

second, recent outbreak has been at least as deadly, case percentage wise, as the

first.

Monkeys typing wrote:

[quote]Allen53 wrote:

Where are you getting these numbers from?

Thin air.

Same place he finds most of his "data".

Real Obvi wrote:

Now, if claims had been made that COVID has infected 100% of the population then your single point counterexample would be relevant. As it is, your single data point is irrelevant.

Nice, another anti-logic false belief!

rekrunner wrote:

David Wowie wrote:

Try again. OP said "for the last two months" -- not "since April".

Still a lie. A Big Lie