Rojo, the IFR is not static. If we were not mitigating the spread, hospitals would get overloaded and the death rate would skyrocket. Something like 5% of cases need critical care, which wouldn’t be available. So predicting an IFR of 3% in a Trump dream world where no one wears masks and bars and schools are all open is not crazy.
In summary, you are dumb and uninformed.
rojo wrote:
Statman Caruthers wrote:
The MSNBC tweet is indeed false. Based on the available data, the actual number of deaths in the US would have to exceed 8 million to reach herd immunity. My explanation and calculations follow.
There exists a formula to determine what percentage of a population need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity. That formula is: 1 - 1/R where R is the reproductive rate. As of September 17, the R value for the US is 2.26.
1 - 1/2.26 = 55.8%
The population of the US is approximately 328 million, so assuming that infection leads to immunity in survivors, the number of infected Americans would need to be:
0.558 x 328,000,000 = 183,000,000
According to this morning’s data from Worldometer, approximately 4.6% of closed cases in the US are deaths based on 203,185 deaths and 4,192,774 recovered:
203,185 / (203,185 + 4,192,774) = 4.6%
So, if we accept that 183,000,000 Americans need to become infected to achieve herd immunity and 4.6% of those infected will die, then the total number of American deaths would need to be...
183,000,000 x 0.046 = 8, 418,000
So nearly 8.5 million American deaths would be required for the country to achieve herd immunity.
The post above is what I'm talking about. Here we are 4 pages into a thread and someone clearly doesn't understand the basics of Covid-19. I'll take your word for it. 4.6% of people who test positive for Covid may have died from it. That doesn't mean that Covid-19 kills 4.5% of the people who get it. The vast majority of people who have gotten Covid-19 didn't know it and didn't test positive for it as they were asymptomatic or the symptoms were so low they never bothered to get tested (or tests weren't available). Don't take my word for it. Take Johns Hopkins. Covid-19 "kills about one in 200 infected people."
So again multiply 183 million x .005 and you get 915,000.
Yet people are saying I sound like a crazy person. I'm a former math teacher. Clearly many people on here are not but what is scary to em is they are triggered by me pointing out basic math and saying I'm a crazy person who should not allow pollitical discussion on my own website.
That's what I'm scared about in 2020. Truth no longer matters and yes Trump is guilty of ignoring truth all the time. I'm just pointing it ou here.
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/questions-and-answers/
The post you quoted is basic math. Your reply is an assumption that most people infected by Covid did not test positive for it. While that may be true, there is no proof. Meanwhile there are experts suggesting the death count has been under reported. Again, no proof.
The poster you quoted used verifiable facts. You want to use guesses. The former is basic math; the latter is voodoo math.
[
It's a borderline case because the tweet literally states "based on the current 2.7% fatality rate". The tweet is factually correct based on the stated assumptions. Is it misleading? Yes, because the stated assumption is very unlikely to be true based on the reasoning you propose, but usually twitter only adds these things in non-borderline cases, that are blatantly, provably false. Predictions are always uncertain and are therefore not facts that are easily proven or disproven.
Rojo. Thank you for keeping letsrun an open forum and allowing people to post contrary ideas. I think this is a perfect example of what we've seen repeatedly in the past few years. Someone expresses a view that people dont like and they attack the person viciously and dont even address what you are saying or actual facts in their attack. Truth has absolutely stopped mattering and it has become scary. I think the silent majority is afraid of getting torn down by the angry mob.
And Covid has been the worst because anytime something is expressed people do not like even if it is factual people go on a vicious attack. People continue to intentionally misuse the death rate, or IFR or whatever rate suits them to weaponize it for their purpose. They continue to trot out a line of "experts" who will support their view or they control. It is clearly no longer about the virus because anyone with half a brain can see the damage we are doing to ourselves is far worse than what the virus could have done if we did nothing. I'm not sure what people want the endgame to be but it is clear that a lot of our constitutional freedoms are being taken away and it looks like it could get much worse.
Daniel Son wrote:
You’re right, you’re not for stopping false information, just for pointing out the perceived hypocrisy of “the other.”
Also, Twitter is a private organization, they don’t answer to you or anyone else trying to regulate them. Sorry!
Bullspit.
Twitter, youtube, facebook, google are the new media.
They are oligarchies and need to be regulated or broken into pieces.
Too much power in too few hands does not a democracy make
Primo Numero Uno wrote:
Rojo. Thank you for keeping letsrun an open forum and allowing people to post contrary ideas. I think this is a perfect example of what we've seen repeatedly in the past few years.
....
It is clearly no longer about the virus because anyone with half a brain can see the damage we are doing to ourselves is far worse than what the virus could have done if we did nothing.
rojo, the horde of quacks that applaud you is quite telling, ...the kind of quacks that both call predictions of 200k deaths 'fake news' in March, then turn heel and claim a million or two American deaths as acceptable colatteral damage.
I think the reason people reject your posts is the history of them.....this post is posted in a vacuum.
You posted preposterous expressions of anger that some minor college meet was canceled in
the face of a growing pandemic back in March.....and rather than admitting fault for that post or apologizing, you double down with posts like this. If you dramatically understated the threat of the virus early on, you just aren't a person well positioned to whine when the media overstates it.
You run a website that plays host to dozens of Covidiots routinly spouting non sense that COVID is just the flu and preventive measures should be ignored, yet you find the need to quibble with the distinction between exactly how many millions would die if it would run wild.
Overestimating the possible high end death toll from 1 million to 6 million seems far less egregious than downplaying one million death as near zero, like your website allows.
Your whining protest that 'leftists' aren't lining up on here to say 'Yeah, Rojo, you're right' displays your utter and complete lack of self-awareness.
Is there some truth in your post? yes, ..but it's like a small pebble in pile of pig sht. I'm not going to applaud the pig for pooping out a clean pebble.
Sharkz Jamp wrote:
Primo Numero Uno wrote:
Rojo. Thank you for keeping letsrun an open forum and allowing people to post contrary ideas. I think this is a perfect example of what we've seen repeatedly in the past few years.
....
It is clearly no longer about the virus because anyone with half a brain can see the damage we are doing to ourselves is far worse than what the virus could have done if we did nothing.
rojo, the horde of quacks that applaud you is quite telling, ...the kind of quacks that both call predictions of 200k deaths 'fake news' in March, then turn heel and claim a million or two American deaths as acceptable colatteral damage.
I think the reason people reject your posts is the history of them.....this post is posted in a vacuum.
You posted preposterous expressions of anger that some minor college meet was canceled in
the face of a growing pandemic back in March.....and rather than admitting fault for that post or apologizing, you double down with posts like this. If you dramatically understated the threat of the virus early on, you just aren't a person well positioned to whine when the media overstates it.
You run a website that plays host to dozens of Covidiots routinly spouting non sense that COVID is just the flu and preventive measures should be ignored, yet you find the need to quibble with the distinction between exactly how many millions would die if it would run wild.
Overestimating the possible high end death toll from 1 million to 6 million seems far less egregious than downplaying one million death as near zero, like your website allows.
Your whining protest that 'leftists' aren't lining up on here to say 'Yeah, Rojo, you're right' displays your utter and complete lack of self-awareness.
Is there some truth in your post? yes, ..but it's like a small pebble in pile of pig sht. I'm not going to applaud the pig for pooping out a clean pebble.
Post of the year
rojo wrote:
Working Stiff wrote:
[
Keep it to running and do what you can to decrease the amount of conspiracy nonsense on your boards if you'd like to improve your site's reputation and get more business for your very good running related stories and products. The other stuff here is loony and makes most normal people feel uncomfortable.
It's conspiracy non-sense to point out that a major night time host has no idea how Covid-19 works now 6 months into the pandemic? What's non-sense is how people like you have a narrative in your head that you are set on an d won't budge from.
There was nothing loony about my post.
If you want just running news, please become a Supporter's Club member. With a click of a button, you can see only running related news.
Yes, the front page is a running site. The messageboard is a forum for runners. Here, I like to say people talk about the type of stuff they'd talk on during a group run. I can totally see the guys saying, "Hey did you see that false tweet that *** Donald Trump /Rachel Maddow*** put out- that's some crazy shi*. How did twitter not realize it's false? Do they not understand the difference between IFR and CFR?"
Oh stop playing dumb buddy. You know this website harbors users who post political information, false or not, to further their agenda. Many other users are also racist, homophobic, and sexist. Some of these users are even REGISTERED. Still you don’t ban any of them.
This is (or should) be a running forum. But let’s be honest, you must be halfway smart. You know that if this board exclusively discussed running that you wouldn’t get enough traffic to support it and you’d shut it down.
The overt incendiary attacks on athletes on these boards is actually quite insane. Have you ever listened to the citius mag podcast? At the end of every episode Chris Chavez (who you personally ridiculed for supporting Mary Cain saying it was inappropriate to make fun of a couple of pacers) asks “what is the worst thing you’ve read about yourself on letsrun?”
Doesn’t that irk you? Your legacy on this board is despicable. The fact that you tolerate this crap means you either support it, or you’re too scared to do anything about it.
And your response of course is...Just join our subscribers club and all the trolling and harassment goes away!
Grow up. Act like a man. Get rid of all this political crap and make this website what it should be. You’re getting called out by your users for what a lousy job you’re doing. Do something about it.
Remember true "herd immunity" effectively eliminates the virus from existence. This is unlikely to ever happen as the virus is to widespread geographically, and as time passes people will likely lose there immunity from previous infections and people will likely get repeat infection, although mostly likely they will be more mild than the first (though changing health conditions would also have an impact) .
However, as we get closer to "herd immunity" the spread of the virus will dramatically slow, and with better treatments the IFR will continue to fall. The oldest people that are vulnerable to death from the virus will die out, and the disease will become like one of the other four common coronavirus that cause common colds.
Realistically, NOW, in most locations the number of infections is such that the disease will spread slow enough on it's own that it will not overwhelm the medical system and we are now just kicking can down the road with any preventative policy. Should be full stadiums, full flights, full XC races.
It amazes me how much some people hate this site and continue to come back again and again. They seem to be envious of the brojos and there success and they try to tear them down. Since they know so much about running and business then start their own site and do it right. That would put the brojos out of business and prove how smart they are.
James Madison wrote:
It amazes me how much some people hate this site and continue to come back again and again. They seem to be envious of the brojos and there success and they try to tear them down. Since they know so much about running and business then start their own site and do it right. That would put the brojos out of business and prove how smart they are.
it's amazing how often this old trope is trotted out by brojo apologists....when in reality it makes about as much sense as chiding people for writing letters to the editor when they are disappointed in their local paper.
"If you don't like it, don't ask it o be better......start your own newspaper!"
I have no interest in running a 2-bit newspaper, but I am interested in local news.
Sharkz Jamp wrote:
James Madison wrote:
It amazes me how much some people hate this site and continue to come back again and again. They seem to be envious of the brojos and there success and they try to tear them down. Since they know so much about running and business then start their own site and do it right. That would put the brojos out of business and prove how smart they are.
it's amazing how often this old trope is trotted out by brojo apologists....when in reality it makes about as much sense as chiding people for writing letters to the editor when they are disappointed in their local paper.
"If you don't like it, don't ask it o be better......start your own newspaper!"
I have no interest in running a 2-bit newspaper, but I am interested in local news.
Exactly.
rojo wrote:
I'm all for stopping false information in theory but the reason why it's a controversial is because it's hard to implement.
The push back isn't because you're incorrect about MSNBC getting the statistics wrong, it's that THIS is suddenly an issue after the multiple daily COVID disinformation thread on this forum.
Clean up your own house before bitching about Twitter's. Consolidate COVID discussion to a single official thread.
rojo wrote:
I'm not deleting anything of substance. I temporarily deleted a few posts that included all of my links in their reply as it was annoying and making the thread too long. I then edited those posts so only their replies showed up.
I did delete a post about Trump supporters being happy if 1 million died as long as he was re-elected and removed a line in my original post about how if Trump put out a tweet like MSNBC everyone would be ripping him for spreading obvious false information as I don't want this turning into Trump talk. I want it turning into media failure/bias talk.
As for our own site, I've never said we were going to put warning labels on stuff. If someone posts, " Covid is a hoax" and I see it I'll delete it as everyone with a brain believes that be false.
But if someone says, "Hey I think the Swedish model is the best here is why." I"m not going to delete that. Or if someone posts, "Might Covid is less dangerous to kids than the regular flu" I'm not going to delete that either. Or even posts a link talking about whether t-cell immunity might mean herd immunity comes much sooner than we think.
Technically, the “facts” say 2.97% people that have gotten Covid have died. So the article is right.
The 0.6% you propose is nothing more than a theory and could be anyone’s guess.
You could be right that the number is too high, but that number would be at a minimum, just as incorrect as the current one.
Monkeys typing wrote:
rojo wrote:
I'm all for stopping false information in theory but the reason why it's a controversial is because it's hard to implement.
The push back isn't because you're incorrect about MSNBC getting the statistics wrong, it's that THIS is suddenly an issue after the multiple daily COVID disinformation thread on this forum.
Clean up your own house before bitching about Twitter's. Consolidate COVID discussion to a single official thread.
Boom. Nailed it
boaster wrote:
rojo wrote:
I'm not deleting anything of substance. I temporarily deleted a few posts that included all of my links in their reply as it was annoying and making the thread too long. I then edited those posts so only their replies showed up.
I did delete a post about Trump supporters being happy if 1 million died as long as he was re-elected and removed a line in my original post about how if Trump put out a tweet like MSNBC everyone would be ripping him for spreading obvious false information as I don't want this turning into Trump talk. I want it turning into media failure/bias talk.
As for our own site, I've never said we were going to put warning labels on stuff. If someone posts, " Covid is a hoax" and I see it I'll delete it as everyone with a brain believes that be false.
But if someone says, "Hey I think the Swedish model is the best here is why." I"m not going to delete that. Or if someone posts, "Might Covid is less dangerous to kids than the regular flu" I'm not going to delete that either. Or even posts a link talking about whether t-cell immunity might mean herd immunity comes much sooner than we think.
Technically, the “facts” say 2.97% people that have gotten Covid have died. So the article is right.
The 0.6% you propose is nothing more than a theory and could be anyone’s guess.
You could be right that the number is too high, but that number would be at a minimum, just as incorrect as the current one.
So it sounds like Rojo is the one spreading fake news? Huh
Sharkz Jamp wrote:
You posted preposterous expressions of anger that some minor college meet was canceled in
the face of a growing pandemic back in March.....and rather than admitting fault for that post or apologizing, you double down with posts like this. If you dramatically understated the threat of the virus early on, you just aren't a person well positioned to whine when the media overstates it.
I didn't dramatically do anything. The only time I remember being very upset was when the Ivy League cancelled its basketball tournament but was going to allow it's champion to go to NCAAs (and at the time was going to allow spring sports to happen). That made no logical sense. If you think it's so dangerous that you can't hold the ivy tournament - even though the ivy league teams were very much self contained teams that had only been playing each other for months - then you have to cancel all sports. Now eventually they did do that but at the time I felt it was logically inconsistent and I felt like the Ivy League basketball tournametn could have easily been held with no fans. As for NCAA indoors,
Sharkz Jamp wrote:
You run a website that plays host to dozens of Covidiots routinly spouting non sense
How do we know what is nonsense? When Fauci said in march we shouldn't be wearing masks, should I not allow people to disagree with that? When the WHO said it couldn't be transferred from people to peole, should I just accept that? What about when people iN NY were encouraging us to use mass transporation or Nancy Pelosi was encouraging everyone to go to China town?
rojo wrote:
Sharkz Jamp wrote:
You posted preposterous expressions of anger that some minor college meet was canceled in
the face of a growing pandemic back in March.....and rather than admitting fault for that post or apologizing, you double down with posts like this. If you dramatically understated the threat of the virus early on, you just aren't a person well positioned to whine when the media overstates it.
I didn't dramatically do anything. The only time I remember being very upset was when the Ivy League cancelled its basketball tournament but was going to allow it's champion to go to NCAAs (and at the time was going to allow spring sports to happen). That made no logical sense. If you think it's so dangerous that you can't hold the ivy tournament - even though the ivy league teams were very much self contained teams that had only been playing each other for months - then you have to cancel all sports. Now eventually they did do that but at the time I felt it was logically inconsistent and I felt like the Ivy League basketball tournametn could have easily been held with no fans. As for NCAA indoors,
Sharkz Jamp wrote:
You run a website that plays host to dozens of Covidiots routinly spouting non sense
How do we know what is nonsense? When Fauci said in march we shouldn't be wearing masks, should I not allow people to disagree with that? When the WHO said it couldn't be transferred from people to peole, should I just accept that? What about when people iN NY were encouraging us to use mass transporation or Nancy Pelosi was encouraging everyone to go to China town?
You always have to be right about everything, don’t you?
zinger wrote:
Oh stop playing dumb buddy. You know this website harbors users who post political information, false or not, to further their agenda. Many other users are also racist, homophobic, and sexist. Some of these users are even REGISTERED. Still you don’t ban any of them.
We ban TONS of people. Please give me an example of a reigistered poster who is posting racist/homophobic content on a regular basis. The reality is when people complain about stuff it often is cases like Leah O'Connor. They end up citing posts that were deleted.
zinger wrote:
The overt incendiary attacks on athletes on these boards is actually quite insane. Have you ever listened to the citius mag podcast? At the end of every episode Chris Chavez (who you personally ridiculed for supporting Mary Cain saying it was inappropriate to make fun of a couple of pacers) asks “what is the worst thing you’ve read about yourself on letsrun?”
Doesn’t that irk you? Your legacy on this board is despicable. The fact that you tolerate this crap means you either support it, or you’re too scared to do anything about it.
Does it irk me? No, it doesn't irk me. It shouldn't bother a pro when someone says, "I think th ey are a B teamer and never going to make it to the top." Why can't people have that opinion? Now if they something like 'They are a **ggot or ugly' I'll delete it. But why can't fans have opinions about runner's ability?
zinger wrote:
And your response of course is...Just join our subscribers club and all the trolling and harassment goes away!
Grow up. Act like a man. Get rid of all this political crap and make this website what it should be. You’re getting called out by your users for what a lousy job you’re doing. Do something about it.
Ok. YOu got me on the subscribers comment. I was trolling there. I've actually thought about making the ability to filter it to only running content available to all.
But I love the political talk and think it's important to allow it
The reality is in the day and age in 2020, people live in silos. They never see the other side's argument. Here they do. For some reason, you can't handle seeing the other side's view. Why not? I think it's really important to allow free discussion.
Most people don't have the guts to say, "Allowing a transgender runner to compete in girls HS sports without treatment is insane." I do.
rojo wrote:
zinger wrote:
The overt incendiary attacks on athletes on these boards is actually quite insane.
Doesn’t that irk you?
Does it irk me? No, it doesn't irk me.
Most people don't have the guts to say, "Allowing a transgender runner to compete in girls HS sports without treatment is insane." I do.
lol
Jakob Ingebrigtsen has a 1989 Ferrari 348 GTB and he's just put in paperwork to upgrade it
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
How rare is it to run a sub 5 minute mile AND bench press 225?
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
Mark Coogan says that if you could only do 3 workouts as a 1500m runner you should do these
Strava thinks the London Marathon times improved 12 minutes last year thanks to supershoes
Move over Mark Coogan, Rojo and John Kellogg share their 3 favorite mile workouts