I agree 100% with Working Stiff.
I agree 100% with Working Stiff.
It's 2020, who cares about Twitter?
+1
Big part of the reason I go elsewhere for running content discussion anymore. I clicked on this thread out of morbid curiosity, admittedly. But at the expense of time reading and discussing running related topics on other threads. Ultimately, I don't really care about news outlets or social media and just wanted to see what Rojo was going on about now. But I would have done that to most any bonafide running thread he might have started. Now I'm less likely to see and participate on those. But that's okay with me.
Working Stiff FTW. Rojo end the thread here.
rojo wrote:
There is a difference between unfounded and false. The MSNBC statement is simply false by anyone who understands statistics, admittedly which is a small percentage of the population.
The MSNBC tweet is indeed false. Based on the available data, the actual number of deaths in the US would have to exceed 8 million to reach herd immunity. My explanation and calculations follow.
There exists a formula to determine what percentage of a population need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity. That formula is: 1 - 1/R where R is the reproductive rate. As of September 17, the R value for the US is 2.26.
1 - 1/2.26 = 55.8%
The population of the US is approximately 328 million, so assuming that infection leads to immunity in survivors, the number of infected Americans would need to be:
0.558 x 328,000,000 = 183,000,000
According to this morning’s data from Worldometer, approximately 4.6% of closed cases in the US are deaths based on 203,185 deaths and 4,192,774 recovered:
203,185 / (203,185 + 4,192,774) = 4.6%
So, if we accept that 183,000,000 Americans need to become infected to achieve herd immunity and 4.6% of those infected will die, then the total number of American deaths would need to be...
183,000,000 x 0.046 = 8, 418,000
So nearly 8.5 million American deaths would be required for the country to achieve herd immunity.
I will hate when Rojo realizes he has laid too many of his cards out on the table and needs to delete the thread.
It's always the threads that make me say "See! That's how LRC really is. I'm not crazy!" that get deleted.
I end up feeling like I lived a fever dream, and rojo can confidently say "point to the thread where I lost my mind", knowing full well he deletes those.
I agree Rojo. The level of misinformation and deception coming from networks branding themselves as news has been disgusting. There is clearly an intent to mislead and create a hysteria and it has been disappointing. This has been extremely damaging to America and to me it is a borderline crime. I know we have freedom of press but it does not protect Libel. This is not Libel against a person but it is publishing of information everyone knows is false to drive misinformation and at the very least they are very unpatriotic for doing this.
At this point, there really are no consistently honest and truthful sources of national media I can see. I feel like we need an organization like the ACLU with no government of media affiliation that only reviews media outlets for honesty, accuracy, and thoroughness. This organization would grade them on how well the public could trust them and would review individual key articles or reports. I've known for a long time Fox News was entertainment. This pandemic has brought out how much many of these other outlets are the same for the left-wing. Yet a lot of people get their news from these sources. The Dems always call out the Republicans for falling for fake news, which to an extent is true, but the level of fake news left wing outlets have duped the public with is stunning.
The level of misinformation and deception coming from this board is disgusting. But instead of doing something about it, Rojo wants you to call him. But if you called him he wouldn’t actually do something about it.
Is there any way we can make his phone number go viral on 4chan?
This wasn't bad until you got to the predictable "What disturbs me is so many left-leaning people can't just come on here and say, "Rojo, you are right. "
In what way did adding that little slam help your cause? It, as you know, is divisive. Your afterthought disclaimer does nothing to mitigate it. The truth is that no one wants to admit being wrong, whatever their political leaning and you calling out the left only amplifies your bias.
I don't think many of you read this post, or understood it.
What we really need is the 'herd mentality' that Drumpf commented on last week. Beyond that, COVID will just go away according to our science-heavy and common-sense-gifted Grand Grifter.
But hey, let's focus on a possible minor mistake made by a major news outlet.
Ivy league education, for shame...
David S wrote:
I agree with you Rojo, it should get a warning label. These people have got to be numerically illiterate.
I think you hit the nail on the head. Many of our societal issues today would have more sober discussions if more people were mathematically literate.
CancelllLRC wrote:
What we really need is the 'herd mentality' that Drumpf commented on last week. Beyond that, COVID will just go away according to our science-heavy and common-sense-gifted Grand Grifter.
But hey, let's focus on a possible minor mistake made by a major news outlet.
Ivy league education, for shame...
yup
Working Stiff wrote:
[
Keep it to running and do what you can to decrease the amount of conspiracy nonsense on your boards if you'd like to improve your site's reputation and get more business for your very good running related stories and products. The other stuff here is loony and makes most normal people feel uncomfortable.
It's conspiracy non-sense to point out that a major night time host has no idea how Covid-19 works now 6 months into the pandemic? What's non-sense is how people like you have a narrative in your head that you are set on an d won't budge from.
There was nothing loony about my post.
If you want just running news, please become a Supporter's Club member. With a click of a button, you can see only running related news.
Yes, the front page is a running site. The messageboard is a forum for runners. Here, I like to say people talk about the type of stuff they'd talk on during a group run. I can totally see the guys saying, "Hey did you see that false tweet that *** Donald Trump /Rachel Maddow*** put out- that's some crazy shi*. How did twitter not realize it's false? Do they not understand the difference between IFR and CFR?"
By that logic, on my runs, I love to talk with my friends saying “hey did you see the latest stupid thing the Mods pushed on LRC” and they all agree with me.
The post above is what I'm talking about. Here we are 4 pages into a thread and someone clearly doesn't understand the basics of Covid-19. I'll take your word for it. 4.6% of people who test positive for Covid may have died from it. That doesn't mean that Covid-19 kills 4.5% of the people who get it. The vast majority of people who have gotten Covid-19 didn't know it and didn't test positive for it as they were asymptomatic or the symptoms were so low they never bothered to get tested (or tests weren't available). Don't take my word for it. Take Johns Hopkins. Covid-19 "kills about one in 200 infected people."
So again multiply 183 million x .005 and you get 915,000.
Yet people are saying I sound like a crazy person. I'm a former math teacher. Clearly many people on here are not but what is scary to em is they are triggered by me pointing out basic math and saying I'm a crazy person who should not allow pollitical discussion on my own website.
That's what I'm scared about in 2020. Truth no longer matters and yes Trump is guilty of ignoring truth all the time. I'm just pointing it ou here.
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/questions-and-answers/Sorry/Not Sorry. Just locker room talk!
Why should we trust anything you say? You don’t even know how to properly construct a sentence
I’m glad you seem to have taken the correct message from my post and... nope, you’ve decided to double down on the crazy. Great!
Mercifully, none of my running friends look at Twitter or LRC, or at least they have the sense to never admit it and always find better things to banter about. I think the last thing a running buddy said to me about LRC, and this was many years ago, is that the founders reminded him of "everything [he] disliked back home on the east coast."