COVID 19 resurgence in Spain is a warning to the US

LIFE SUCKS, LET ME FREE wrote:

Be smarter fella wrote:

[quote]suree wrote:

A 6% death rate for a virus alone is absolutely massive.

6% means that of the 190k people that died with COVID, only around 12k died solely from COVID with no other exacerbating factors.

Stories like this are why people are skeptical of that 190k figure:

"PORTLAND, Ore. — Fred Creasy was diagnosed with stage 4 colon cancer at the end of June. Doctors gave the 81-year-old just 30 days to live...(his daughter) Rhonda McCrary said her father tested positive for COVID-19 around the same time of his cancer diagnosis. McCrary said her dad died from advanced cancer. A few days after his death, Lincoln County Public Health reported Creasy as the county’s ninth COVID-19 death."

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/questions-over-the-accuracy-of-how-the-state-tracks-covid-deaths/283-0b1b7b6c-695e-4313-92cf-a4cfd7510721

The manufactured "Covid excess deaths" are from the elderly with co-morbidities that are routinely killed when they contract flu and pneumonia. This was compounded and accelerated by aborted end-of-life care as policy- those are crimes.

Take 500,000 deaths, divide by 40 PCR cycles, subtract database matches, subtract nursing home slaughter, subtract deaths of despair and delayed care, subtract the lives ventilators destroyed- aka medical malpractice, net out a typical flu season… anything left?

No, it's not "resurgence". It's a normal patter for the south.

If you want to learn about seasonal ups and downs go here:

https://thefatemperor.com/viral-issue-crucial-update-sept-8th-the-science-logic-and-data-explained/

Not being a troll. You’re actually stupid. When were we denied exercise and sunlight?

Honestly, that never happened in America and most of the world.

Why do people like you just make stuff up?

What delusional world do you live in? So dumb.

Insecure wrote:

Covidiocy wrote:

Isn’t it possible the seeds were sown when we did draconian lockdowns to begin with, denying people exercise and natural vitamin D via sunlight and oppressing them in poorly ventilated and stagnant indoor spaces? We could’ve spent Apr-Aug protecting our elderly and the morbidly obese while letting everyone else get exposed with minor masking and distancing requirements. If there is a fall reemergence, it’s because we are stupid. So far, it does not look like elementary to college age cases are resulting in hospitalizations.

Not being a troll. You’re actually stupid. When were we denied exercise and sunlight?

Honestly, that never happened in America and most of the world.

Why do people like you just make stuff up?

What delusional world do you live in? So dumb.

Exercise (outdoors) and sunlight (other than what you could get from your home) were not available for months for millions of people in Spain, Italy and France.

Pajac wrote:

And the cases in Spain are going up while deaths remain very low.

Funny how the usual suspects ignore this.

https://scontent.flis9-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/118986117_1534002263464105_7076328976811178542_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=mR9Ce26ZpTsAX-bgDHq&_nc_ht=scontent.flis9-1.fna&oh=c678e3433c081b442621eb54cfaa4c30&oe=5F7D0671

The good news is that death rates are going down, while case counts are going up, because we are getting better at managing the disease, with drugs to reduce inflammation.

While death rates in Spain have remained low, and also in Sweden, they remain fairly high in the USA, even when correcting for total new case rates.

In terms of total death rate per capita, USA's higher death rate means they passed Sweden about a week ago, and just passed Spain yesterday.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Covid cases in Florida have gone steadily down as have deaths. Yes, there were spikes the last two days because of the reporting mess around holidays. Despite their elderly population Florida is only a little above Sweden in deaths per million and is well on the way to herd immunity.

What makes you say "well on the way to herd immunity"?

With Covid-19, we can talk about achieving herd immunity when 50-83% of the population has developed immunity, either through getting the disease, or a vaccine.

Latest figures show:

USA is currently at around 2%.

Sweden is almost at 1%.

Florida is about 3.5%.

Spain is around 1.2%.

rekrunner wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Covid cases in Florida have gone steadily down as have deaths. Yes, there were spikes the last two days because of the reporting mess around holidays. Despite their elderly population Florida is only a little above Sweden in deaths per million and is well on the way to herd immunity.

What makes you say "well on the way to herd immunity"?

With Covid-19, we can talk about achieving herd immunity when 50-83% of the population has developed immunity, either through getting the disease, or a vaccine.

Latest figures show:

USA is currently at around 2%.

Sweden is almost at 1%.

Florida is about 3.5%.

Spain is around 1.2%.

You're a moran. Confirmed cases are not total cases. Total cases are much higher because most people are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms and either were not tested due to strict testing criteria when they were infected or they just didn't bother getting tested. Sweden, the US, Florida and Spain are probably closer to 25% . New York and New Jersey are likely closer to 70% (which is why their death rates fell off a cliff and haven't bounced back up). Sweden is probably a bit higher, because more of their young people have likely had it since they didn't really close schools and the US is getting higher as college kids and elementary kids get it. Places like New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey are pretty much already at herd immunity. Places like Florida and Texas will start to see their numbers drop as their commercial air conditioning systems transition back to economizer mode and they get sufficient outside air in their buildings to control the spread of the virus indoors.

joedirte wrote:

New York and New Jersey are likely closer to 70% (which is why their death rates fell off a cliff and haven't bounced back up).

You have zero proof for this claim. Antibody studies etc. do not back it up at all. There are I'm sure a few small areas in NY that have close to herd immunity, but to paint with a broad rush basically the entire Northeast is stupid.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

joedirte wrote:

New York and New Jersey are likely closer to 70% (which is why their death rates fell off a cliff and haven't bounced back up).

You have zero proof for this claim. Antibody studies etc. do not back it up at all. There are I'm sure a few small areas in NY that have close to herd immunity, but to paint with a broad rush basically the entire Northeast is stupid.

CDC estimate is that at least 10x as many people have had it compared to known infections.

I'm a moran because you can make up numbers?

True, confirmed cases are not total cases.

Yet I'm not sure how you can arrive at Spain, US, Florida, and Sweden "probably closer to 25%" while New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey are closer to 70%.

Anders Tegnell recently estimated Sweden's immunity might be 30%, but others say that, even accounting for asymptomatic spread, this is wildly optimistic.

But even then, 30% is nowhere near close to herd immunity.

Furthermore, corona viruses are not like other viruses -- immunity seems to last a few years rather than a lifetime.

This puts into doubt whether herd immunity could even work.

Is this a joke. Sweden T-Cell studies showed over 30% had an immune response in May. They are definitely in the herd immunity range. NYC showed antibody positivity in over 20% of the population in a random sample done in April, since many never develop detectable antibodies the real number of infected was likely around 2X or more. Remember this was April a month and a half into the pandemic which has now been spreading in the US for over 6 months.

You are correct Coronaviruses are not like other viruses. They are far more stable than viruses like the influenza strains we call the Flu. The closest known virus we have seen, SARS, patients showed a robust T-cell response more than a decade after the infection in later studies. There is no reason to believe this will be a virus that impacts society longterm once herd immunity is reached.

I would actually say Joe went conservative on the infected % in the US. Based on where the deaths trailed off in Sweden, UK, Italy we are getting close. There are some jurisdictions and rural areas that are not there due to stricter measures. But outside of the Bay Area, and Seattle most US Metros are through the worst of this and some like NYC are staying shut down for no reason.

Looks promising -- they say it needs more work.

Skimming through the comments, and I saw comments that some of the results were excluded without explanation, the seroprevelance was only 13.5%, and that should have been 7.2% if all the results were included, and that the correct factor according to the data was 1.35x, rather than 2x.

Nevertheless, I agree that immunity is larger than confirmed case counts, but "herd immunity" still sounds optimistic if not premature.

Regardless, in my opinion, I also agree that staying shut down is not necessary if the public takes reasonable precautions to social distance, wear masks, and wash hands. Most countries that shut down, only shutdown for about 4 weeks, then gradually re-opened, with guidelines for protecting the public, and testing to quickly detect and confine new outbreaks.

It was only necessary for regions who ignored early warnings and let it spread out of control, saturating hospitals, and generally becoming unmanageable.

The Swedish model, if they had managed nursing homes better, looks like a good model to me, but would never work in the USA as there is too much resistance to CDC guidance.

Is this an expose? Quite impressed. It’s amazing to think that you learned all this just by watching TV. What’s more amazing is you thought it incumbent to add to the already prodigious stream of manufactured fear. If your soccer mom mother were still alive today she’s be so proud to know that you still don’t think for yourself.

There is a lot of data in that FT article that is relevant to the current US situation. Outbreak starts with young people and moves to older adult populations. A rational human being that cares about the health and safety of his fellow man would be concerned about the current state of the pandemic in the US given what a chorus of experts have been saying. But COVID deniers just have insults and some guy on a bit coin youtube channel talking about how the coronavirus is actually good for you.

Covidiocy wrote:

Isn’t it possible the seeds were sown when we did draconian lockdowns to begin with, denying people exercise and natural vitamin D via sunlight and oppressing them in poorly ventilated and stagnant indoor spaces? We could’ve spent Apr-Aug protecting our elderly and the morbidly obese while letting everyone else get exposed with minor masking and distancing requirements. If there is a fall reemergence, it’s because we are stupid. So far, it does not look like elementary to college age cases are resulting in hospitalizations.

We never went through a real lockdown. We should have. It should have been 2 - 3 weeks where all of us were forced to stay inside (with those essential working), but we had this half-a** attempt at a lockdown. Since we didn't take it seriously enough early, we are dealing with the lingering consequences now.

Masks alone would probably knock the prevalence rates down way below 5% in a short time, while the current policy of putting kids and college students back in school is seeding the virus silently throughout society, which will lead to a lot more deaths as it inevitably spreads beyond the youth to the elderly over the next month to six weeks.

+1

Who is actually shutdown? Other than drink at bars, go to concerts or sporting events, you can pretty much do whatever you want as long as you wear a mask at least where i live in northern virginia.