COVID 19 resurgence in Spain is a warning to the US

Covidiocy wrote:

when will dummy learn wrote:

The seeds of a fall/winter outbreak have been planted. A lot of people in the US are now very vigilant about exposure, wearing masks and limiting activities. This may save us from a huge explosion of cases this fall. But with many states heading towards relaxing restrictions, it is hard to imagine getting through the fall and winter without another big surge in cases pushing our health care system to the bring again.

https://www.ft.com/content/6a5e61f5-7a35-4ad9-b57d-98f1dfa107ad

Isn’t it possible the seeds were sown when we did draconian lockdowns to begin with, denying people exercise and natural vitamin D via sunlight and oppressing them in poorly ventilated and stagnant indoor spaces? We could’ve spent Apr-Aug protecting our elderly and the morbidly obese while letting everyone else get exposed with minor masking and distancing requirements. If there is a fall reemergence, it’s because we are stupid. So far, it does not look like elementary to college age cases are resulting in hospitalizations.

when will dummy learn wrote:

The argument has been made many times that restrictions should be relaxed on younger age groups who are not as much at risk for acute cases of the virus. But Spain's recent outbreak is showing why that is just wishful thinking and is a warning to the US as we open college campuses. Spain had the virus well under control in June. The central government ended its emergency measures on June 21. The regional governments were left to manage the virus and let things return to normal very quickly. Young people started going to clubs again and having large parties in public parks. The new outbreak started among ages 15-29, but spread to all age groups within about seven weeks (see the chart in the article about 2/3rds down).

Currently in the US, outbreaks are starting on many college campuses with clusters linked to fraternity and sorority parties as well as off campus clubs and parties. These outbreaks will spread to college towns and then fan out across the country as students come home either to try to isolate after getting infected or for weekend and holiday visits. This may also coincide with some states relaxing social distancing after seeing rates drop after the summer surge, high school and middle school returning for face to face instruction and with the potential for increased transmission due to winter indoor heating and colder drier air outside.

The seeds of a fall/winter outbreak have been planted. A lot of people in the US are now very vigilant about exposure, wearing masks and limiting activities. This may save us from a huge explosion of cases this fall. But with many states heading towards relaxing restrictions, it is hard to imagine getting through the fall and winter without another big surge in cases pushing our health care system to the bring again.

https://www.ft.com/content/6a5e61f5-7a35-4ad9-b57d-98f1dfa107ad

when will dummy learn wrote:

The argument has been made many times that restrictions should be relaxed on younger age groups who are not as much at risk for acute cases of the virus. But Spain's recent outbreak is showing why that is just wishful thinking and is a warning to the US as we open college campuses. Spain had the virus well under control in June. The central government ended its emergency measures on June 21. The regional governments were left to manage the virus and let things return to normal very quickly. Young people started going to clubs again and having large parties in public parks. The new outbreak started among ages 15-29, but spread to all age groups within about seven weeks (see the chart in the article about 2/3rds down).

Currently in the US, outbreaks are starting on many college campuses with clusters linked to fraternity and sorority parties as well as off campus clubs and parties. These outbreaks will spread to college towns and then fan out across the country as students come home either to try to isolate after getting infected or for weekend and holiday visits. This may also coincide with some states relaxing social distancing after seeing rates drop after the summer surge, high school and middle school returning for face to face instruction and with the potential for increased transmission due to winter indoor heating and colder drier air outside.

The seeds of a fall/winter outbreak have been planted. A lot of people in the US are now very vigilant about exposure, wearing masks and limiting activities. This may save us from a huge explosion of cases this fall. But with many states heading towards relaxing restrictions, it is hard to imagine getting through the fall and winter without another big surge in cases pushing our health care system to the bring again.

https://www.ft.com/content/6a5e61f5-7a35-4ad9-b57d-98f1dfa107ad

joedirt wrote:

when will dummy learn wrote:

The argument has been made many times that restrictions should be relaxed on younger age groups who are not as much at risk for acute cases of the virus. But Spain's recent outbreak is showing why that is just wishful thinking and is a warning to the US as we open college campuses. Spain had the virus well under control in June. The central government ended its emergency measures on June 21. The regional governments were left to manage the virus and let things return to normal very quickly. Young people started going to clubs again and having large parties in public parks. The new outbreak started among ages 15-29, but spread to all age groups within about seven weeks (see the chart in the article about 2/3rds down).

Currently in the US, outbreaks are starting on many college campuses with clusters linked to fraternity and sorority parties as well as off campus clubs and parties. These outbreaks will spread to college towns and then fan out across the country as students come home either to try to isolate after getting infected or for weekend and holiday visits. This may also coincide with some states relaxing social distancing after seeing rates drop after the summer surge, high school and middle school returning for face to face instruction and with the potential for increased transmission due to winter indoor heating and colder drier air outside.

The seeds of a fall/winter outbreak have been planted. A lot of people in the US are now very vigilant about exposure, wearing masks and limiting activities. This may save us from a huge explosion of cases this fall. But with many states heading towards relaxing restrictions, it is hard to imagine getting through the fall and winter without another big surge in cases pushing our health care system to the bring again.

https://www.ft.com/content/6a5e61f5-7a35-4ad9-b57d-98f1dfa107ad

Your vaccine keeps getting delayed. If a viable vaccine isn't ready for another year, should we stay locked down? How about two years? How about three? How long should we stay locked down and hiding before we resume our life and economy? Or should we take the Russia and Chinese approach and just start inoculating our population with a stage 2 vaccine with a minimal understanding of the side effects?

Precious Roy wrote:

Swaglord_the_real_one_1_1 wrote:

The difference between Spain and the US is that in Spain, young people live at home while going to college.

So they are all spread evenly through cities, going out to common bars etc... then return home after a night out and spread it to their parents etc.

In the US, a lot of colleges are the only show in a secluded town.

So if the kids actually just stay in the towns until Thanksgiving or Christmas... I bet it could actually be a net positive towards "herd immunity" of the active people.

If I was >55 years old, I wouldn't risk it at all.

So far, compliance with coronavirus measures at colleges has been pretty terrible with about half of students refusing to participate in contact tracing and lots of students refusing to be tested. The same problems with disinformation affect college students. Many think that the virus is a hoax. Expecting college students to self-isolate after testing positive and to forgo visiting home on weekends is wishful thinking.

While there are some schools that are isolated geographically, just about every city in the US has several colleges and universities. OSU is right in the middle of Columbus. USC/UCLA, UW, U Tex., BU/Harvard/MIT, NYU/Columbia, Emory/GSU/Ga Tech, U Miaimi, Temple/U Penn, and the list goes on and on. And most college towns aren't very small at all. College Station/Bryan TX has about 150k non-student residents. Athens, GA 120k. Eugene OR 170k.

We are pretty much at the same place we were in May when states opened up bars and restaurants. Everyone thinks that things are under control and nothing bad could possibly happen. But then six to eight weeks later, it all hits the fan. Mid October will probably be when it starts to take off again in the US.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

The second wave is a nonsense fiction not based on science. At this point the majority of the US is on the Sweden Trajectory. The virus cases are coming down with no change in behavior in many states and are going to stay. There are a few exceptions like the bay area but most major metros are almost through this. Spain did not let it spread enough before their lockdown to get herd immunity.

The lockdown method is garbage. Most of the countries who did it are experiencing huge increases except for the ones who locked down after widespread in which case they destroyed their economy for nothing. When Sweden has no second wave the lockdown proponents are going to look even more ridiculous than they do now.

Who cares if college kids spread it around. They will be fine. Let people decide for themselves if the risk is worth it. If you don't want to expose yourself stay at home on your own dime. But don't tell others how they should evaluate the risk, there's enough info out there for us all to make our own decision.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

So far, compliance with coronavirus measures at colleges has been pretty terrible with about half of students refusing to participate in contact tracing and lots of students refusing to be tested. The same problems with disinformation affect college students. Many think that the virus is a hoax. Expecting college students to self-isolate after testing positive and to forgo visiting home on weekends is wishful thinking.

While there are some schools that are isolated geographically, just about every city in the US has several colleges and universities. OSU is right in the middle of Columbus. USC/UCLA, UW, U Tex., BU/Harvard/MIT, NYU/Columbia, Emory/GSU/Ga Tech, U Miaimi, Temple/U Penn, and the list goes on and on. And most college towns aren't very small at all. College Station/Bryan TX has about 150k non-student residents. Athens, GA 120k. Eugene OR 170k.

We are pretty much at the same place we were in May when states opened up bars and restaurants. Everyone thinks that things are under control and nothing bad could possibly happen. But then six to eight weeks later, it all hits the fan. Mid October will probably be when it starts to take off again in the US.

The second wave is a nonsense fiction not based on science. At this point the majority of the US is on the Sweden Trajectory. The virus cases are coming down with no change in behavior in many states and are going to stay. There are a few exceptions like the bay area but most major metros are almost through this. Spain did not let it spread enough before their lockdown to get herd immunity.

The lockdown method is garbage. Most of the countries who did it are experiencing huge increases except for the ones who locked down after widespread in which case they destroyed their economy for nothing. When Sweden has no second wave the lockdown proponents are going to look even more ridiculous than they do now.

Who cares if college kids spread it around. They will be fine. Let people decide for themselves if the risk is worth it. If you don't want to expose yourself stay at home on your own dime. But don't tell others how they should evaluate the risk, there's enough info out there for us all to make our own decision.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

The second wave is a nonsense fiction not based on science. At this point the majority of the US is on the Sweden Trajectory. The virus cases are coming down with no change in behavior in many states and are going to stay. There are a few exceptions like the bay area but most major metros are almost through this. Spain did not let it spread enough before their lockdown to get herd immunity.

The lockdown method is garbage. Most of the countries who did it are experiencing huge increases except for the ones who locked down after widespread in which case they destroyed their economy for nothing. When Sweden has no second wave the lockdown proponents are going to look even more ridiculous than they do now.

Who cares if college kids spread it around. They will be fine. Let people decide for themselves if the risk is worth it. If you don't want to expose yourself stay at home on your own dime. But don't tell others how they should evaluate the risk, there's enough info out there for us all to make our own decision.

You're pretending that Sweden isn't still practicing distancing and acting responsibly as far as gatherings and things of that nature. That is precisely what they are doing. They even don't want to encourage mask-wearing because they think that will make people more reckless.

Florida will be the test case for the USA. No one here could argue that they haven't gotten supposed "herd immunity" as you claim places have (with little evidence). Right now, they're starting to loosen things up despite not really having things that under control (numbers are declining, but still 2,000+ cases/day and an 8-10% unadjusted positivity rate). If it gets worse from here, your theories about herd immunity and such are bunk.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

The second wave is a nonsense fiction not based on science. At this point the majority of the US is on the Sweden Trajectory. The virus cases are coming down with no change in behavior in many states and are going to stay. There are a few exceptions like the bay area but most major metros are almost through this. Spain did not let it spread enough before their lockdown to get herd immunity.

The lockdown method is garbage. Most of the countries who did it are experiencing huge increases except for the ones who locked down after widespread in which case they destroyed their economy for nothing. When Sweden has no second wave the lockdown proponents are going to look even more ridiculous than they do now.

Who cares if college kids spread it around. They will be fine. Let people decide for themselves if the risk is worth it. If you don't want to expose yourself stay at home on your own dime. But don't tell others how they should evaluate the risk, there's enough info out there for us all to make our own decision.

You're pretending that Sweden isn't still practicing distancing and acting responsibly as far as gatherings and things of that nature. That is precisely what they are doing. They even don't want to encourage mask-wearing because they think that will make people more reckless.

Florida will be the test case for the USA. No one here could argue that they haven't gotten supposed "herd immunity" as you claim places have (with little evidence). Right now, they're starting to loosen things up despite not really having things that under control (numbers are declining, but still 2,000+ cases/day and an 8-10% unadjusted positivity rate). If it gets worse from here, your theories about herd immunity and such are bunk.