" I agree with your time predictions and I think Jakob will be too fast a finisher for Jacob.
I, however, doubt the 3000m will be Jakob´s best distance in the long term. Jakob himself stated some few months ago that he considered the 5000m to be his best distance at the moment and the HM in the long term!
Remember: Even though Jakob focus mostly on the 1500m in these years his training has from the beginning been more suitable for long distance running."
"Yeah, I suppose I just think he might be under some delusion there. While he is aerobically very strong and doesn't have great 400 speed, that doesn't mean 1500/3000 won't be his best events. El Guerrouj started as a 5,000 runner in the junior ranks. While he was great at the 5,000 late in his career, he was definitely better at the 1,500 despite not being a 1:42 800m performer (yes his 800 PB is probably not his maximal ability for 800). Centro is similar (great 2 miler coming up, not known for exceptional 400 top-end, 1500 still his best event).
Each of Jakob's brothers has strong range but all of them are best at 1500/3000. Henrik has tried moving up, but his best mark remains the 1500 and his 3000 is superior to his 5,000 run in the same season. Filip's best event is 1500/mile by a good deal. I do think Jakob can become a great championship performer in the 5,000, but I disagree that he is ticketed to be better in an overall at it than the 3,000 ~ 3:28 is more than enough speed to have that be your sweet spot (that's what Komen had). Could happen, but it will take a lot to match the aerobic strength of a Cheptegei, Kiplimo or R. Kipruto. "
I think Jakob knows better than the two of us what is his best best distance at the moment and in the longer term!
Jakob knows all the numbers from his training and testing so his opinion is based on facts not on speculation.
When he talks about the HM as his best distance in the long term he is probaly having in mind his theshold pace which is the pace the runner can sustain for an hour without creating more lactate than the muscles can dispose of. As you possibly is aware: Jakob´s treshold pace has been measured by the Norwegian professor Leif I. Tjelta annually from Jakob´s preteens and his numbers have from the beginning been out of the chart high (relative to his age). Last time the number was disclosed he was running 19.3km/hour some few month after turned 16.
One year later his number was rumoured to be between 21-22 km/hour. If this is true Jakob´s treshold pace today could be 22km/hour or higher. I am stating this because Jakob the last few years reportedly has improved his time for the 1000m reps from 2:55 to just below 2:45 (and that at the same effort= at lactate number 3.1-3.2) so he must have increased his treshold pace accordingly.
And this will put Jakob at the same level or at least close to Kipchoge, Kamworor, Cheptegei, Bekele, Mo Farah and more. Speaking about Mo Farah: He just broke the one hour WR running 21,330m! (21.33km/ hour).
To make a long story short: I am postulating that Jakob is in reality is a long distance runner who at the moment has "fallen in love" with the 1500m.
And if it is true that Jakob´s best event a the moment is the 5000m his 1264 points from the 1500m should at least equal 12:45 in the 5000m and 7:26 in the 3000m.
Mohammed Mourhit´s European Records in the 5000m and the 3000m are 12:49.71 (= 1248 points) and 7:26.62 (=1261 points) respectively.
I don´t think that you can compare Jakob to his older brothers, Filip and Henrik. The brothers are more typically 1500m runners. I think Filip could have been a 800m/1500m if his training has been aimed on that.