Realistic marathon goal - sub 255? Sub 250?

In real marathon with competition you could probably run sub 2:50 but i do not know how well will you run solo. So maybe start at 2:52 pace and then try to push in the last 10k

I'm guessing you probably could go sub 2:50 but it's going to be tough but yourself. I'm shooting for 2:50-2:52 in 9 weeks. I'm running threshold runs at 3:4/km pace currently and M pace workouts at 4:02. It seemed like a stretch goal a few weeks ago but I've been gaining confidence lately.

Like the others have said, running a marathon solo is very tough, however being alone may prevent you from going out too fast as is often the case with newer marathoners. 3:45/km threshold runs would indicate that you're right around 2:50 fitness, but yeah, I'd say shoot for a 1:26 first half and then evaluate whether or not you can pick it up.

I should mention i will be having a friend ride a bike with me for this.

run613 wrote:

I should mention i will be having a friend ride a bike with me for this.

Oh just swap out for the friends bike and your golden. 2:50 for sure.

run613 wrote:

Im going to be running a virtual marathon in 6 weeks time. Im trying to figure out a realistic marathon goal.

I have been running up to 113km a week for the past 6 weeks.

This weekend i ran a 29km run with 10km easy and the last 19km in 1:15:31 (3:59km). It didnt feel too hard considering 2 days before the run i did a 24km med/ long run and the day before a 16km general aerobic run.

Threshold pace runs are around 3:45km so far. In spring, i did a virtual half in 1:20:45. Should i aim for sub 250? Or be safe with sub 255??

I think sub-2:50 should be the goal if you're looking to find out what you can do. The half tells me you have more than enough potential but I really like 19km right under 4:00/km in a longer run surrounded by some high mileage days not going to the well etc. I think, with a taper, that you should just start running 4:00 k's & hold for as long as you can. You could probably end up at 2:47-48 on the right day if you feel strong after 30k. With it being virtual I would carefully plan out your nutrition so you take in as much as you can & have exactly what you want along your route.

When I took my first stab at sub-2:50 I went through halfway in 1:25-flat but ran silly to get there. I had some miles in the 6:15-6:25 range in the first 10k & I wasn't ready for that. I settled into 6:30 pace & was able to get through 30k still on pace. Faded to a 2:53. I had an identical half PR at the time to what you have now. The following season I ran 2:47 after a 1:19-high half PR (probably was in better shape by ~ a minute). I also went through halfway in 1:20-high which was not advisable. I didn't respect the distance enough when I was younger. I probably had 2:49 & 2:45 in me on those two days.

Good luck. Long way of saying that I think you're selling yourself short with sub-2:55. Reasonable pacing & good fueling should bring you to a sub-2:50 with your training.

Last year I ran 2:48 off of similar times/mileage, I was a bit slower even during training. I would try to hit 4:10-4:05/km for MP efforts. My prep HM didn't go so well and I ran 1:22 (but I think I could've run 1:20 if I would have paced it properly, huge positive split). I was hoping to run under 2:55 for the marathon, possibly 2:52.

One thing that worked for me is to look at my HR for the long run w/ MP, to find out what my upper limit for "relaxed but fast" running was. Turned out to be 170, and I made sure to run the first half of my race at around 170, then tried to put in a little bit more effort (still controlled) and ran the final 10k with all that I had left (which was basically just trying to stay on pace). I surprised myself by running 2:48.

Thanks for the feedback. Much appreciated.

I just did a 10km TT, 35:41 - 3:34 km.

I see you in the 2:49-2:53 range

Week 10 and a 5km tt in 17:17! Feeling strong. 2 weeks out!

What's your marathon pace plan then? Go out at 4.00 or 4.02min and try to keep it steady or are you gonna blast the first half and try to hold on?

2:50 for sure.

Go at 4:00/km even and adjust from there. That 10k is very fast.

I ran a 1:20:21 half last year and felt right on 2:50 (but did not get a chance to actually try). Ran a 2:56 on a 1:24 half, to give you a sense of scale.

Miles (volume) matter though. Hope you put in sufficient (100km/week or so) volume and the sub 2:50 is yours! Will be following. Good luck!

run613 wrote:

Week 10 and a 5km tt in 17:17! Feeling strong. 2 weeks out!

Daniels has the 10k as just a few seconds stronger than the 5k. So they line up pretty perfectly and it shows you have the strength between the two.

Marathon potential is right around 2:45. I think you gotta aim for (sub) 2:50. Don't neglect nutrition, especially having someone on the bike with you. Have them bring as many bottles as they can (2-3). Plus gels. If you use something like Maurten or an electrolyte drink you can be like Kipchoge in breaking 2 and have someone give it to you in stride every 5k or so.

In some of my earlier marathon attempts I was definitely in good shape but didn't always fuel right. I have nailed some of the more recent ones & have also taken in the most nutrition in those races.

Well.... It worked out to a 2:51:40!! It was about 0 C at the start and warmed up to about 7C by the finish. i was at 4:01km pace through 39.20km, the last 3 km i hit the "wall". Last 3 km splits, 4:31, 4:33, and 4:52. I had achy hips @ 25km and was worried about dropping out. Rough splits below.

5k @20:04

10k @ 40:09

15k @ 60:14

1:20:16 @ 20k

1:40:25 @ 25k

2:00:21 @ 30k - fastest 5 km split - 19:56

2:20:30 @ 35k

2:24:27 @ 36k - 3:57

2:28:31 @ 37k - 4:04

2:33:32 @ 38.20k

2:37:40 @39.20k - avg km is 4:01 with 3km to go.

2:42:12 @ 40.20 - 4:31

2:46:45 @ 41.20 - 4:33

4:52 - 2:51:40 @ 42.2

Im pretty happy with this result as my 3 previous marathons were...

2016 - 3:03:23

2017 - 3:02:12

2019 - 3:18 - blew up