Hardloper wrote:
I could see sub-26, 57:xx, and a legit sub-2:00 happening, but I'm surprised so many people think he can run 12:30. They must think the heat affected him in Monaco, but I don't believe it did, and I don't really see him setting up another perfect 5K attempt like this one.
12:35 is already very impressive, i agree. The track was new, there was no wind, and the pacing was spot on. If he runs another attempt with better weather and on a worse track or with worse pacing, then he might not better his mark.
Human physiology can't be contested, 78F in the air with a dew point of 69F will make it really hard for you. He acclimatised a bit in Uganda and it's only for 12 minutes, but surely it will slow you down. Those conditions might slow an average Joe by 1 minute in his park run, of course it's different for Joshua, but 1" per kilometre is not unimaginable.
If he shows up again on a fast track, with excellent pacing and weather, and a similar or even better shape(if that's even possible) the 12:30 barrier will be broken, i have no doubts, i never doubted Joshua and Addy, they are the perfect mix of talent and knowledge.
Given his resistance, history and past performances, a differential of 5-6"/km as he doubles up in distance is way within his reach. So if we say 12:30 is possible, then surely 25:50-26:00 is possible, 57:00-57:20 and 1:59:10-1:59:30 is achievable in a truly perfect(legal) race.
Also if you can run 12:30 for a 5000m, surely you can challenge 7:20 for 3000m(only a 3.33" for an 80% drop in distance which would allow for a 4-4.8" drop my figures when you increase in distance). Even if he went for the 3000m world record now, he would really threaten it and possibly run 7:20-7:22 without even more specific work.