douglas burke wrote:
Brazier VS Burgin Should be interesting,
Burgin racing against professionals should be interesting.
Him vs Brazier? Not quite there yet.
douglas burke wrote:
Brazier VS Burgin Should be interesting,
Burgin racing against professionals should be interesting.
Him vs Brazier? Not quite there yet.
Fasterer wrote:
2. As good as he is, Jakob will not beat Cheruiyot in the Mile/1500 as long as Cheruiyot is competing in those races.
Little early to say this. Jakob is about to turn 20 and progressing every year. I'm sure someone would have looked at a young Hicham El Guerrouj in 1995 getting smoked by Noureddine Morceli at the World Finals and said he would never beat him. But by 1997 Morceli's dominance was abruptly over. I don't think that precipitious decline will happen to Cheruiyot, but Jakob is far from a finished product and can get a lot better.
Probably gorging on tainted beef? Doesn't look like Brazier is getting a lot of it lately...so she seems not to be the sharing kind.
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Fasterer wrote:
2. As good as he is, Jakob will not beat Cheruiyot in the Mile/1500 as long as Cheruiyot is competing in those races.
Little early to say this. Jakob is about to turn 20 and progressing every year. I'm sure someone would have looked at a young Hicham El Guerrouj in 1995 getting smoked by Noureddine Morceli at the World Finals and said he would never beat him. But by 1997 Morceli's dominance was abruptly over. I don't think that precipitious decline will happen to Cheruiyot, but Jakob is far from a finished product and can get a lot better.
No need to feed trolls. Obvious to anyone now that there is no significant gap between the two. I would extremely surprised if Cheriyut wins more than 50% vs Jakob next year.
jakobo wrote:
I would extremely surprised if Cheriyut wins more than 50% vs Jakob next year.
Says the guy posting under “jakobo”.
Jess Hull in the 800 is interesting coming off her 14:43 NR in Monaco. Would like to see her in a 1500 at the moment - maybe she could run around 3:57?
I assume she's got a 1500 lined up elsewhere anyway, and in some ways this is more interesting - not many athletes race 5k one week and 800. Sub 2?
Men's 1500m: I'm not too optimistic they will hammer the pace again. Maybe this serves well for Cheruiyot running a 3:26/3:27, but I think he'll want to get some experience against Jakob in a 3:30-3:31 type race race. Look for Kijelcha to possibly mix it up. Really wish Jake W was in this race. Maybe Lewandowski could put together something if it doesn't get out blazing fast, but he was just 3:33.9 in Monaco. McSweyn has ran 3:31, didn't look fantastic Monaco, but heard he was in great shape.
Men's 800m: I don't see anyone but Arop committing to a 49 first lap. If Brazier isn't going to go for time, he'll just pull his usual "get behind the first racer and kick with 200-250 to go". No one else in this field besides maybe Arop (Rotich only 1:45 SB) can contend with him so maybe this an opportunity to just go for it. Excited to see what the youngster Max Burgin could do.
Women's 1500m: Kipyegon vs Muir will be very exciting with Mageaan who ran very well over the last 200m of the Monaco 1k (3:58 last year in Doha). Hellen Obiri with her 1500m background is obviously in good shape. Excited to see Weightman after she ambitiously went with the lead group in the Monaco 5k and held on for 14:35. Rowbury/Nanyondo/Chebet/McColgan make this a fairly stacked field. Would be more stacked with Reekie and Hull who are in the 800m. Nonetheless, a 2:29 1k opener from Kipyegon is no joke.
Women's 800m: Looking for the defending silver medallist Rogers to rebound from the 1k, but she's more of 600m type anyways. I don't think she's in PR form, but maybe a hair under 2. Reekie on the other hand beat Muir in a 1:59 race and split 1:59 in the Monaco 1k. After running 1:57.9i, a 1:57 wouldn't surprise. Certainly the favorite based on 2020 outings. Hedda Hynne was right behind Reekie weeks ago in 1:59.9.
Predictions: 3:29 Cheruiyot, 1:42.6 Brazier, 3:55 Kipyegon, 1:57.7 Reekie.
Nike Australian Project wrote:
Jess Hull in the 800 is interesting coming off her 14:43 NR in Monaco. Would like to see her in a 1500 at the moment - maybe she could run around 3:57?
I assume she's got a 1500 lined up elsewhere anyway, and in some ways this is more interesting - not many athletes race 5k one week and 800. Sub 2?
1500 in Göteborg and Berlin.
jakobo wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Little early to say this. Jakob is about to turn 20 and progressing every year. I'm sure someone would have looked at a young Hicham El Guerrouj in 1995 getting smoked by Noureddine Morceli at the World Finals and said he would never beat him. But by 1997 Morceli's dominance was abruptly over. I don't think that precipitious decline will happen to Cheruiyot, but Jakob is far from a finished product and can get a lot better.
No need to feed trolls. Obvious to anyone now that there is no significant gap between the two. I would extremely surprised if Cheriyut wins more than 50% vs Jakob next year.
Troll??
FakOff doosh.
Obvious to anyone??
Jakob's great, one of the best ever, but has never beaten Cheruiyot.
Objectively, Cheruiyot is not in top form yet, started the first 400 in 52 seconds, slowed for the next 600, hung on for another 400 while the chase group caught him, then despite Jakob's best form ever, perfect pacing and perfect set-up and kicking hard, Cheruiyot still seperates from him with 50 to go and continued to separate through the line.
Jakob might go faster yet, but Cheruiyot can go 3:26 now and being young himself, has not shown his peak yet.
That is why, objectively speaking, Jakob isn't beating Cheruiyot in the foreseeable future.
at the same time wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
though no Hoppel. Hopefully, he's just taking some well-earned rest.
Well earned rest? It was 1 race. How long do you think he will need to recover from this?
Keep in mind that it was recently insinuated that Moh Ahmed would spontaneously combust if he ran one more hard step after his 12:47 and 3:34. Just imagine what would happen to a poor fellow that ran 12:35!
Fasterer wrote:
Jakob ran a perfect race but still couldn't match Cheruiyots speed down the stretch despite Cheruiyot running horrible pacing (:52 first lap!).
Two things this tells us:
1. Cheruiyot can break 3:26 with better pacing.
The pacer went through in 52.6 in Monaco and Tim was in 3rd place - 53.0/53.1.
Still too fast, but had the common sense to slow it down dramatiaclly on 2nd lap - 58.5 (for 1:51.5 - probably the ideal 800 split for a 3:28).
It wasn't ideal for Jakob either, leading the 2nd pack, would of been better if the pace was about 2 seconds slower so jakob and Tim Cheruiyiot could have drafted off the pacers.
According to IAAF TV was 52.98
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Fasterer wrote:
2. As good as he is, Jakob will not beat Cheruiyot in the Mile/1500 as long as Cheruiyot is competing in those races.
Little early to say this. Jakob is about to turn 20 and progressing every year. I'm sure someone would have looked at a young Hicham El Guerrouj in 1995 getting smoked by Noureddine Morceli at the World Finals and said he would never beat him. But by 1997 Morceli's dominance was abruptly over. I don't think that precipitious decline will happen to Cheruiyot, but Jakob is far from a finished product and can get a lot better.
I just don't see where Jakob can cut down much on his time from Monaco within only a week. He paced it pretty much perfectly and had just about the best kick of his career. At the moment, Cheruiyot is just the better miler.
And that's not a knock on Jakob, 3:28 is ridiculously fast. I genuinely believe that Cheruiyot may be in WR form.
Jakob with even just another few months of growth and training might improve even more. But simply looking at what he has shown us this year I don't think he can shave more than a couple tenths off of that 3:28.68 on Friday.
Come to think of it, Jacob is somewhat reminiscent of El Guerrouj, both are strength based runners notorious for lacking a bit in raw speed.
Yeah I can’t see him running faster this season. Maybe some day he’ll knock a .1 or so off.
Tim is just in a different ball park really. I think the 2k really threw people off about what kind of shape he was in. At 5,800 feet, rainy, first lap in 55, overdistance for him, and on three weeks of training
I think given the conditions in Oslo he would’ve ran closer to 4:50. His speed is still ridiculous
macdaddy wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
Brazier VS Burgin Should be interesting,
Burgin racing against professionals should be interesting.
Him vs Brazier? Not quite there yet.
Prediction for Burgin - 1:44.05 51/53 sub 1:43 for Brazier but no AR.
cmon man wrote:
Yeah I can’t see him running faster this season. Maybe some day he’ll knock a .1 or so off.
Tim is just in a different ball park really. I think the 2k really threw people off about what kind of shape he was in. At 5,800 feet, rainy, first lap in 55, overdistance for him, and on three weeks of training
I think given the conditions in Oslo he would’ve ran closer to 4:50. His speed is still ridiculous
Yes, Tim is definitely in a different ballpark. However, that 0.2 second difference between him an Jakob means that the ballpark is really small. I think they have the technology to make nanometer size ballparks now.
Seriously? 53/58.5 for 1:51.5 is in no way ideally placed to run 3:28. 55.5/56 for 1:51.5 is a far better position to be in.
To be clear for Jakob I was referring to him having a chance in the next couple years. Obviously this year it’s hard to envision a change unless Tim runs even crazier splits.
cmon man wrote:
Yeah I can’t see him running faster this season. Maybe some day he’ll knock a .1 or so off.
Tim is just in a different ball park really. I think the 2k really threw people off about what kind of shape he was in. At 5,800 feet, rainy, first lap in 55, overdistance for him, and on three weeks of training
I think given the conditions in Oslo he would’ve ran closer to 4:50. His speed is still ridiculous
+1
Yeah, Jakob has definitely, finally, absolutely, definitively, guaranteedly peaked this time.
He'll likely never run more than 0.1 second faster in his life. Only extremely biased racists like Coevett still deny it. Quick teens don't get faster. Ask Amos.
I see Tim braking the WR this year or next. It will be great to see him and Manangoi race to be the first sub 3:25 man in 2022 when Elijah is back from his unfortunate layoff. Maybe little George will be under 3:25 by then too. You never know, Kiprop is back in 2022 as well, so who knows what kind of gas he's still got left in that svelte tank of his? If he links up with the Rongoi group I can see Tim front running a 3:23 in Monaco 2022 and Asbel, Elijah, and George all under El G's times with Jakob a distant fourth in 3:28.7..