CHEPTEGEI - SUB 26MIN 10K

no way sub 26.

I would be already shocked with sub 26'10

26:10 seems about right, but with perfect weather 55-60F and even better shape(Is that even possible?) you can't rule out a first 25:59, i doubt it will happen, but never going to underestimate Cheptegei.

Cheppy's run was impressive. Yep. No doubt about it. Whatever people say about lights or doping controls in Covid or spikes.

However, he bettered the 5k world record by (almost) 2 seconds. Why would you think he can take more than ~5 seconds off the 10k record? Bekele's records are insane, there's a reason Cheppy breaking this is such a huge deal. There's no guarantee he'll even break 26:20. I thought 12:37 was forever unbeatable too, so maybe 26:17 is beatable somehow, but I don't think I'll live to see a sub-26:10 (and I'm young).

Sub 26 no way!! The best usually add 30 to 35 seconds to their 5k and double it to get potential 10k time

What you say it's true fror athletes preparing 5000m but not 10000m in specific way.

I show you the difference between 5000 and 10000m in athletes I coached, depending on their goal at the moment :

Athletes with specific preparation for 10000m :

Nicholas Kemboi : 13'01" - 26'30" (difference between double 5 k and final time : 28")
Ahmed Hassan Abdullah : 12'56" - 26'38" (46")
John Korir : 13'09" - 26'52" (34")
Geoffrey Kirui : 13'16" - 26'55" (23")
Wilson Kiprop : 13'15" (estimated) - 27'01" (31")

Athletes with specific preparation for 5000m :

Mark Bett : 12'55" - 26'52" (1'02")
Paul Kosgei : 13'05" - 27'21" (1'11")

Athletes with preparation for both (but not finalized) ;

Moses Mosop : 12'54" / 26'49" (1'01")
Imane Merga : 12'53" / 26'48" (1'02")
Benjiam Maiyo : 13'02" / 27'07" (1'03")

Among some of the all-time best in 10000m (not my athletes), prepared for the distance :

Abebe Dinkesa : 12'55" / 26'30" (40")
Paul Koech : 12'56" / 26'36" (44")
Zersenay Tadese : 12'59" / 26'37" (39")
Boniface Kiprop : 12'57" / 26'39" (45")

An athlete as Cheptegei who, don't forget, is also the WR holder of 15 km on road, if wants to attack the WR of 10000m with two months of specific preparation, can stay in the range of 40"/45". This means under 26'.

Cheptegei vs. Rhonex is going to be the gift that keeps on giving in the coming years.

Renato hit it on the nail. It's about the approach and preparation.

Remember when everyone was saying Cheptegai couldn't break the 10k record because he was more of a 10k guy? I still think he is, and as mentioned he has the 15k WR. He's just so impressive that has the speed to be able to run 12:35 for 5k. I've found strength based 5k runners can typically run up to around their 5k+25*2 or 5k*2+50. This puts him right at 26:01. I think the more critical factor here will actually be the pacing, and then the weather since the 10k race is longer.

The other poster's logic of, "he only broke 5k record by 2s so he'll only beat the 10k record by 4-5 is stupid". People have been saying for years the 5k record is clearly superior to the 10k record and it is, but the opportunities for fast 10k's is limited. 12:37 and 26:17 weren't equivalent to begin with and Bekele already had the record by a margin so what was his incentive to run another fast one?

Rheonix Kipruto has already ran 26:24 on the roads and Cheptegai beat him handily at World XC and Doha. Not the best logic, but Cheptegai ran 16s faster than his road WR, 32 seconds faster than the road 10k WR would be 25:52 (I think 26:24 road is superior to a 12:51 though).

Cheptegai couldn't break the ^5k record because he was more of a 10k guy

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VA Runna wrote:

Rheonix Kipruto has already ran 26:24 on the roads and Cheptegai beat him handily at World XC and Doha.

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Starno wrote:
I think with pacers he can do it. However I don't think he will try it right away because it's more prudent to easily get the new WR, than to burn out trying to reach a very hot time.

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We can say the opposit and assume those with less than 1' difference when doubling 5k pr are those who did not work on speed and did not prepare 5k.
I'm sure most most of the athlete you named had a better 5k potential but were simply not very interested in that distance.

Cheptegei, despite having a 10k-HM profile. has worked a lot on speed for more than one year and has fully trained specifically for this WR during 6 months.

So unless he had more in the tank in Monaco and can run sub 12:30 which I doubt (but maybe not impossible with cooler weather and top level pacers that bring him to 3000m) I don't see how he can break 26'.

Probably somewhere in the middle, he can go sub-26 but in a perfect race. For now, 'only' the 10,000m WR would be amazing for him. As for pacers, who the hell can go through 3000m in 7:30-7:32 from the front? Maybe 4-5 guys in the world but they'd rather compete for themselves, unless huge financial incentives.

Same profile athlete that prepared both distances :
Bekele 12:37 26:17 >1'03
Geb : 12:39 26:22 > 1'04

I don't see why Cheptegei would be able to do something different.
And he won't have 6months to prepare one race again in a no championship year.

there are several pacers so the third (best one) races like a normal 3k with pacer giving up at 2k
But we would still need somebody like Barega or Kejelcha and with a lot of money so that he accepts and find enough motivation to make this time possible.

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Impala31 wrote:
Same profile athlete that prepared both distances :
Bekele 12:37 26:17 >1'03
Geb : 12:39 26:22 > 1'04

I don't see why Cheptegei would be able to do something different.
And he won't have 6months to prepare one race again in a no championship year.

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Bekele and Geb never prepared the 10,000m specifically. If Joshua races the 10,000m now in 2-3 weeks, then yes, 26:10-26:15 sounds appropiate. If he prepares the same he did for this 5,000m, then 25:5x sound possible in a perfect race..

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George213 wrote:

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Impala31 wrote:
Same profile athlete that prepared both distances :
Bekele 12:37 26:17 >1'03
Geb : 12:39 26:22 > 1'04

I don't see why Cheptegei would be able to do something different.
And he won't have 6months to prepare one race again in a no championship year.

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Because you left out a new variable - pacing light. The 10k was almost impossible to get the pacing right. Even Bekele's WR splits were pretty uneven from 4k onwards. Now they have the Wavelight thingy, which makes it much easier to lock on pace. And compared to Geb and Bekele, Cheptegei is also more of a strength-based runner. Doubling the 5k time + 50s is not unheard of for runners like him. Also, as you've already acknowledged, the weather wasn't perfect for his 5K WR (dew point 68C), he should be able to shave 2-3 secs with cooler weather. So let's assume the weather is good, he will "only" need to double his 5K time + around 55s to go sub-26 (incidentally, his 10k road PR is his 5K PR*2 +56s ). Anyway, it's highly unlikely he'll break 26 first time out, (Sub 26:15 would be a good goal for him), but he definitely has the potential to do it.

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Mzungu in Iten wrote:
Bekele and Geb never prepared the 10,000m specifically. If Joshua races the 10,000m now in 2-3 weeks, then yes, 26:10-26:15 sounds appropiate. If he prepares the same he did for this 5,000m, then 25:5x sound possible in a perfect race..

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Mzungu in Iten wrote:

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George213 wrote:

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Impala31 wrote:
Same profile athlete that prepared both distances :
Bekele 12:37 26:17 >1'03
Geb : 12:39 26:22 > 1'04

I don't see why Cheptegei would be able to do something different.
And he won't have 6months to prepare one race again in a no championship year.

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Because you left out a new variable - pacing light. The 10k was almost impossible to get the pacing right. Even Bekele's WR splits were pretty uneven from 4k onwards. Now they have the Wavelight thingy, which makes it much easier to lock on pace. And compared to Geb and Bekele, Cheptegei is also more of a strength-based runner. Doubling the 5k time + 50s is not unheard of for runners like him. Also, as you've already acknowledged, the weather wasn't perfect for his 5K WR (dew point 68C), he should be able to shave 2-3 secs with cooler weather. So let's assume the weather is good, he will "only" need to double his 5K time + around 55s to go sub-26 (incidentally, his 10k road PR is his 5K PR*2 +56s ). Anyway, it's highly unlikely he'll break 26 first time out, (Sub 26:15 would be a good goal for him), but he definitely has the potential to do it.

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Couldn't have said it better, good objective analysis.

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