If Bekele was a farmer and didn't train a single time in his life, what would his 5k time be?

Yes the claim that he wouldn’t break 25 the first time out is actually comical, but so is the one that he runs 15. Realistically he could go out and run in the 18-21 range depending on who is there to run with him and how hard he actually is willing to try

DNF.

1. all these random people chiming in with "i'm incredibly cool and never ran until i was 15 and then two weeks later i ran sub 18 and then a month later i broke 16 but whatever i suck" - first of all, no, you didn't. second of all, it is COMPLETELY irrelevant to Bekele.

2. there is no such thing as a vacuum. the world is not divided between the aerobically trained and the non-aerobically trained. it's a scale. yes, specificity is a thing, but an east african farmer (probably living at altitude) is going to be in WAY better shape than the average 25 year old american or european. our culture is sedentary, so people thinking of an average 25 year old's capabilities have a vastly different idea in their minds.

3. if he's a farmer in ETHIOPIA it's practically impossible, unless he has some sort of disability, that he didn't grow up running and doesn't run daily performing tasks on his farm and traveling to other farms/villages. also it is just generally impossible to say a human being has never run in his life. of course he has. even if he played no sports and even if he's the laziest farmer in the history of Africa - he's done some minimal running. we can say he hasn't trained, though.

4. and with that in mind, one of the greatest distance runners in world history, in his prime, working a physical job, probably at altitude - he'd run between 17:00-19:00 his first go for 5k.

5. now, put galen rupp in an average american office, living the average american lifestyle with a car, horrific food, saturated with alcohol, stressed, and sleeping poorly? he'd probably be at least a little overweight if not significantly obese, like the average american, and he'd barely break 30.

goldengraham wrote:

I knew someone in high school who ran a JV cross country race just because the team needed a 5th man. He never ran but just out of sheer intensity to keep up and no knowledge of distance or pacing, he ran a 17: something and came in top 5.

17:xx minutes without any training?! That's insane.

Starno wrote:

If he hasn't run a single mile since a very long period of times, his joints, etc. wouldn't be used to running that much, at an intense speed.

So I will say 20:10.

But after only 8-10 weeks of serious training, I think he could run sub 18min.

Sub 16 min after 6 months.

Sub 15 min after a year.

He'd run sub15 no problem, i was 16 and less than 5 months training when i ran sub 15:30 on the track

i did play other sports so poor example.

i'd guess 14:15

talent go wrote:

I ran 4:55 in 7th grade gym class never having played a sport or running a day in my life.

This is amazing! You could already run faster than me when you were at such a young age without any training at all?!

talent go wrote:

Way too many no talent guys here. The criteria said that he is at race weight and is an African farmer. He is not a 50 year old overweight farmer on a tractor. He is chasing his cows and sheep and dog around the farm. He is walking many miles. The more I think about it, I woukd put him sub 15. I was only a 14:30 guy but did not do a thing for 2 years and gained 15 pounds but was able to run 17:10. If I run 17:10, he runs sub 15. I ran 4:55 in 7th grade gym class never having played a sport or running a day in my life. You guys are clueless.

No you are. Sub 15? wtf GTFOOH.

My guess is no quicker than 20mins, maybe 22mins. BUT it wouldn't take very much training, future attempts etc to get that down significantly, that's where talent shows up - how quickly people respond to training. You seriously think a 25yr old who has never ran before could rock up and run 14x?! Hilarious.

I'm sorry, but do you know how slow 4 minutes per km actually is? He would run sub 15 no problem.

His mechanics would be amazing, he has an amazing engine, and he is in good shape from farming. He's also the most talented distance runner in history. There are probably hundreds of out of shape Americans who run sub 20 for their first 5k.

Really, I've never run over 18 minutes in a 5k, including the first time I ran XC on a whim in 9th grade. 20 minutes is ridiculously slow for that talent level.

There is "base level" talent and "improvement" talent. I know a guy who ran 1:12 half marathon just from cycling. Then he switched to running and ran 1:12 after 1 year. I also know a guy who ran 2:08 HM in his first attempt. A year later 1:30, year after that 1:13, his PB now is 1:05.

So maybe Bekele would have run 20min. Maybe 15 min. The one thing we know for sure is, his improvement would be very rapid.

As I wrote earlier, sub 15 is an insult to Zátopek, Hägg, and other great runners of the past. Is Bekelele so much more talented than those runners that he could run without running training within one minute of their world record times that they achieved through very hard training? No chance.

nonsense wrote:

As I wrote earlier, sub 15 is an insult to Zátopek, Hägg, and other great runners of the past. Is Bekelele so much more talented than those runners that he could run without running training within one minute of their world record times that they achieved through very hard training? No chance.

Yes, he easily could. He is way more talented, has better shoes, better competitors in the race.

Those guys also had no idea how to train properly.

I rounded up 5 guys from the office who had never run before and buoght them dinner after running g a 5k. One ran 18:30, 2 ran 20 minutes, 1 ran 24 minutes and 1 walked 50 minutes. Sub 15 is my prediction.

It actually really depends on someone's unique trainability genes. I went from 21:50 my first race to 19:58 my last race, then, by the next season I had dropped my time down to a 17:20. So 4+ mins in about a year. I've heard of some runners who ran around 30 and dropped to 15.

Amory wrote:

nonsense wrote:

As I wrote earlier, sub 15 is an insult to Zátopek, Hägg, and other great runners of the past. Is Bekelele so much more talented than those runners that he could run without running training within one minute of their world record times that they achieved through very hard training? No chance.

Yes, he easily could. He is way more talented, has better shoes, better competitors in the race.

Those guys also had no idea how to train properly.

Firstly we are assuming that Bekelele has not done any training. Their training was vastly superior to no training.

Secondly, they had plenty of idea of how to train. We know more today no doubt, but 'no idea' is completely false.

Thirdly, your assertion that Bekelele is 'way more talented' is hot air. Did Bekelele win the 5000, 10000, and marathon in the same olympics? Did he break the 5km world record off 25km a week squeezed into job breaks? Talent is a nebulous concept anyway, but let's at least avoid the obvious fallacies of assuming that present day runners must be better in absolute terms than those of earlier times?

nonsense wrote:

Amory wrote:

Yes, he easily could. He is way more talented, has better shoes, better competitors in the race.

Those guys also had no idea how to train properly.

Firstly we are assuming that Bekelele has not done any training. Their training was vastly superior to no training.

Secondly, they had plenty of idea of how to train. We know more today no doubt, but 'no idea' is completely false.

Thirdly, your assertion that Bekelele is 'way more talented' is hot air. Did Bekelele win the 5000, 10000, and marathon in the same olympics? Did he break the 5km world record off 25km a week squeezed into job breaks? Talent is a nebulous concept anyway, but let's at least avoid the obvious fallacies of assuming that present day runners must be better in absolute terms than those of earlier times?

So what was the reason Zatopek only ran 13:57? A time that even elite high schoolers and most collegiate athletes can comfortably beat?

The reason is poor training, poor equipment, and yes, even poor talent (relatively). You cannot argue that the depth of talent in the 30s and 40s is comparable to now. Zatopek could only win those 3 events due to poor depth. Transport him to 2020 and I doubt he even makes the Olympics. Face it, running was not widely practiced back then.

I contend that Bekele is VASTLY more talented than Zatopek.

Posters here often claim that the reason Erhiopians didn't dominate in the 60's and 70's was because of civil wars and instability.

Zatopek actually was a soldier during the most brutal war in history at his physical peak.

What would Bekele have ran if instead of earning riches racing on the European circuit at the peak of the EPO era the year he ran his WRs at his physical peak, he was squeezing in running in the bath tub workouts in-between killing NAZIs in a life and death struggle for his homeland's survival?

A major factor is that Hägg and Zátopek were amateurs. There is absolutely no comparison between that and the modern professional circus.

Another, not unrelated, is that this was pre-Lydiard. The benefits of high, not too fast mileage were not appreciated. Even if they had been, they would not have been able to have been acted upon to anything like the modern degree.

Another is that one stands on the shoulders of others. Once something has been done, it is massively easier to do it again, at the same time as take things further.

Another is that they did not have the benefit of altitude.

Another is the profileration of drugs and legal medicinal aid in the past decades. No idea whether Bekelele is clean or not, but drugs have certainly left their mark on the history of modern running.

Little to none of these things would help an untrained Bekelele.

incredible talent wrote:

15:30 worst case. The people saying 20:00+ are idiots. Fourteen year old American kids can break 20 running like 10 miles a week.

He'd be running under 14 within 6 months.

There's a big difference between "running like 10 miles a week" and "didn't train a single time in his life"

Heck, I’m old with no talent and was raised on crappy American processed food and do white collar work(I sit on my butt all day) and can run a 20 minute 5k with little to no training. I think the GOAT who has could EASILY run under the 18 minutes with no training at 25 yers old after working a physically demanding jobs or years. I’m guessing he would be in the 15-18 Range. That’s pedestrian for a young person with talent.