2021 London Marathon also in October. How does this affect Boston, Tokyo and other majors?

who cares

runawaynow wrote:

who cares

I care. That’s why I asked. Any other rhetorical questions from the peanut gallery?

It's up in the air whether any of these events happen anyway so it is not worth speculating. So in that sense I am inclined to agree with the guy who said "who cares" at this time.

Everything cancelled indeed wrote:

It's up in the air whether any of these events happen anyway so it is not worth speculating. So in that sense I am inclined to agree with the guy who said "who cares" at this time.

Yup

Yeah, the most likely situation is that none of these events happen in 2021.

FLupda wrote:

Yeah, the most likely situation is that none of these events happen in 2021.

I think these are poor arguments. London 2020 seems to be going ahead. I see no reason (other than bureaucratic) why the other races can’t take place also. Especially if their postponed. With the expedited timeline of 12-18 mos for a vaccine, a fall ‘21 marathon seems likely.

Everything is cancelled wrote:

London 2020 seems to be going ahead. I see no reason (other than bureaucratic) why the other races can’t take place also.

Therein lies the rub. Until it has actually happened, safe to assume it won't.

How will elite athletes live that depend on these events for a living?

Everything is cancelled wrote:

Does this set precedent for other spring majors to postpone? Will this dilute the field for the Tokyo/Sapporo Olympic ‘thon?

I don't think so. I think every Marathon is separate and will do their own thing.

For the Olympics, I think the athletes that would skip for a fall London are the athletes that would skip the Olympics with Covid pandemic or nah.

For Boston, since they skipped 2020 altogether, I have to imagine they will stick to the Spring unless we are still under quarentine. They won't announce a postponement until at least next year.

Tokyo already did elite only in the Spring. I'd see them doing that again rather than postponing for a mass participation. May make it Japanese to limit International travel before the Olympics, or may even use it as a dry run for the Olympics. I could see them saying the ran the Tokyo Marathon successfully so they can run the Olymoics successfully.

I don’t think there is any effect, per se, but it is a pretty good indication of the way the wind is blowing regarding the feasibility of these races in ‘21. If I were a betting man, I’d say Boston cancels their mass event for Spring and runs a crit-style pro event like London is doing this fall.

Hopefully sometime in Q1 of next year there is a vaccine, which by Q3 has been administered widely enough to allow bigger races, probably with smaller fields and other modifications (Maybe UK-only participants for London, for instance). So nothing in the spring, but potentially smaller-time races starting to spin up once vaccines circulate. Then a crowded fall calendar of nerfed major fields, finally settling to a near-normal spring of ‘22.

If the pandemic is ongoing, more races may take London's lead and go elites only. I think spring races would seem a bit silly pushing back to the fall again next year, only to cancel. We could see a bunch of fall races reschedule for spring though. Spring race calendar might look packed.

Dur wrote:

Tokyo already did elite only in the Spring. I'd see them doing that again rather than postponing for a mass participation. May make it Japanese to limit International travel before the Olympics, or may even use it as a dry run for the Olympics. I could see them saying the ran the Tokyo Marathon successfully so they can run the Olymoics successfully.

This all hinges, to some degree, on what Fukuoka does this year. I don't know how you prevent spectators from transmitting disease to elites, even on a criterium course. Unless you keep out foreign spectators and have your domestic transmission rates locked at acceptably low levels.