If the average healthy male runs 50 MPW, how fast would they run a mile?

Go take a walk at your local Walmart and tell me you think the majority of males there could break 5 in the mile

covid45 wrote:

Sliding Scale wrote:

For those that are not injured 4:40. HS boys, the vast majority of which do not average anywhere near 50 miles a week, run in the 4:35-4:50 range all the time. At the HS level many of these guys exemplify average to below average athletic ability.

Of course some will top out in the high 5 minute range, just like a select few will run under 4:05; but with consistency I really do think non obese males would usually run in the mid to high 4:30s.

I've seen a lot of high school boys run 4 years of high school cross country and track and not break 5:15. Those are the average and below average dudes. One guy who never broke 5:05 was actually a good cross country runner, sub-17 cross country, 7th or 8th man on a CA state championship cross country team.

That is devastating and depressing to hear.

0hiaaa wrote:

covid45 wrote:

I've seen a lot of high school boys run 4 years of high school cross country and track and not break 5:15. Those are the average and below average dudes. One guy who never broke 5:05 was actually a good cross country runner, sub-17 cross country, 7th or 8th man on a CA state championship cross country team.

Interesting take. For my HS Division 1 Track Team in Ohio, we had 11 guys on the team one year who could break 5 mins in a meet. I thought those were pretty decent numbers. Most over that 4:45/4:50 barrier. Probably 20-25 total guys on the Distance squad and I consider them all to be average males, no athletic freaks.

For comparison, we ran a ton of quality work, and never got close to 50mpw, if I had to guess. Probably closer to mid 30 mpw.

Jesus. That means most high school track kids aren't even good enough to run D3.

IMO, PE is as exertful as the effort you put into it. You can exert yourself and have fun if you want to.

Somewhere between 3:50 and 9:00.

david45 wrote:

0hiaaa wrote:

Interesting take. For my HS Division 1 Track Team in Ohio, we had 11 guys on the team one year who could break 5 mins in a meet. I thought those were pretty decent numbers. Most over that 4:45/4:50 barrier. Probably 20-25 total guys on the Distance squad and I consider them all to be average males, no athletic freaks.

For comparison, we ran a ton of quality work, and never got close to 50mpw, if I had to guess. Probably closer to mid 30 mpw.

Jesus. That means most high school track kids aren't even good enough to run D3.

By god that has to be one the the smartest things to ever come out of your mouth

squidward wrote:

david45 wrote:

Jesus. That means most high school track kids aren't even good enough to run D3.

By god that has to be one the the smartest things to ever come out of your mouth

It is just depressing to think about that the last time most kids get to run track or XC is in high school

What is average? What is normal? What kind of running are we talking about? These questions have no answers, and don’t really prove anything.

Ruppforgold wrote:

Davis45 wrote:

If you take a group of average males who remain dedicated to training enough to work up to 50 mpw without getting injured (which probably means at least 2 years of training, even more if they start out obese or unfit) and they spend some time focusing on running a fast mile (aka not just slow marathon training), nearly every one of them will break 5.

Go take a walk at your local Walmart and tell me you think the majority of males there could break 5 in the mile

I do believe that almost every one of them could have done it at some point in their lives, and if they are young enough, some of them could still do it. This is no different than I suggested above.

Sure, if the person has allowed them self to deviate from average by becoming exceptionally obese or unfit, then they may have passed the time in their life where breaking a 5 minute mile is possible, or they may take longer to get to the point where they can run 50 mpw without getting injured and train for a mile time trial. The problem with your comment is that those people are not running 50 mpw.

No. There are entire conferences of high schools where nobody breaks 5 minutes.

skin the cat wrote:

No. There are entire conferences of high schools where nobody breaks 5 minutes.

And that is sad.

skin the cat wrote:

No. There are entire conferences of high schools where nobody breaks 5 minutes.

... and you think that they are running 50 mpw?

Davis45 wrote:

skin the cat wrote:

No. There are entire conferences of high schools where nobody breaks 5 minutes.

... and you think that they are running 50 mpw?

Yes. It is extremely common for high school students to run 50 MPW

david45 wrote:

Davis45 wrote:

... and you think that they are running 50 mpw?

Yes. It is extremely common for high school students to run 50 MPW

Milers?

Davis45 wrote:

david45 wrote:

Yes. It is extremely common for high school students to run 50 MPW

Milers?

Yes

david45 wrote:

Davis45 wrote:

Milers?

Yes

How fast would they run a mile?

Let's assume that there are 800 kids per school and 10 schools = 8000/2 = 4000 boys. 500 self select to run track in the conference and the distance runners average 40 MPW and none break 5 minutes. You can bump them up to 50 to get a few guys out of 4000 to break 5 but that puts the average guys out of the 4000 at more like 7-8 minutes.

skin the cat wrote:

Let's assume that there are 800 kids per school and 10 schools = 8000/2 = 4000 boys. 500 self select to run track in the conference and the distance runners average 40 MPW and none break 5 minutes. You can bump them up to 50 to get a few guys out of 4000 to break 5 but that puts the average guys out of the 4000 at more like 7-8 minutes.

Big problems with that analysis:

1. It's entirely based on assumptions and hand-waving.

2. The other 3,500 boys are also humans that are very similar to the 500 self-selected runners.

3. Do you really think that there is a population of 500 male distance runners that run 40 mpw where zero of them can run a mile in less than 5 minutes?

(There are certainly regions and states where nutrition and obesity are major problems and the normalization of poor fitness contributes to lower standards for health and fitness because everyone just observes the behavior of those around them. Let's not think of these humans as a representation of normal or average. Many of those exact same people would be much more fit if they just lived in a different location.)

Then how does anyone become fast enough to run in college?