John Wesley Harding wrote:
Brazier has looked phenomenal in 2020, but it takes a phenomenal athlete to run 1:42.x, let alone the WR. My wager for Monaco is that he guns for 1:41 and fades to 1:42-high FTW, super impressive considering the circumstances of this season.
He ran 1:42.34 last year at the World Championships after running in heats and semis. I think he is faster now. I predict mid 1:41, which will make him the #3 performer ever behind Rudisha and Kipketer.
I think Brazier is a great runner and should break 1:42 one day, but athletes of his calibre train to be at a peak for the final of a champs, and take rounds into consideration. He was at a peak in Sept/Oct last year, just like Rudisha was in London 2012, running a time which he never bettered in many orchestrated paced race on the circuit. Also remember that Brazier had a purpose made rabbit running at near WR pace (from the start) to follow in Doha, which is rare in championship finals.
I don't know what the 'set up' is for the Monaco race! ? Are they going to have the lights on the inside set for the WR pace, as they did in Oslo (I think it was Oslo)? This is unfair I think, if the case.
You also have to consider that last year and for Monaco, Brazier will be wearing the latest carbon plated Nike spikes, which have been proven to be superior to those worn by Kipketer 20 years ago and certainly those used by Coe and Cruz when running their 1:41s. In addition the Doha and Monaco 'Mondo' tracks are notoriously fast, much faster than the synthetic tracks of 40 years ago.
If Brazier runs a 1:41 in Monaco next month then of course that will put him # 3 on the all time list, but with all the technical advantages (not his fault, obviously) he has at his disposal, it will not make his performance better than those of Coe or Cruz, who were better 800m runners at their peaks, in my opinion. I think he'd have to break 1:41 just to equal the 1:41.7's run on inferior tracks with inferior shoes, almost 40 years ago.
Advancements in technology are part of all sports. You complain about his shoes and tracks being faster than those of Coe and Kipketer, but where is the hate for Coe and Kipketers massive technological advantage over Elliot? Surely they couldn’t be that much faster than him on talent alone?