Mennea also ran on the lines.
Mennea also ran on the lines.
Lemaitre ran his 9.92 with 2.0 m/s wind. As for concentrating on it, what was his career if not sprinting, for a long time? Bolling was close to the best hs sprinter of all time with just one real 100m season. Put him with a top sprint coach for several years and he will surely improve a lot, because he had just started. Sprinters typically improve a lot if they keep at it from high school to college and again from college to the pros.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
the right white lightning please stand up wrote:
Lol...19.8? even though Mennea and Guliyev have run 19.72 & 19.76
Also, I though white lightning was that Devin Quinn guy? Or was it Teeters? Anyway I guess they've both just disappeared?
Looks like someone doesn’t understand the meaning of the word “essentially “.
Not surprising. Please continue.
19.8 and 19.76 are two very different things in the world of sprinting, not that it matters because you said "essentially" while referring to clean sprinters not white sprinters. That said, if you really want to default to semantics for lack of saying anything smarter, which clearly you do, then I would have to say it looks like somebody doesn't understand the meaning of the phrase "in fact".
Your posts are ridiculous. What a life you must live, that you find that sort of thing interesting.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
Your posts are ridiculous. What a life you must live, that you find that sort of thing interesting.
Geezer: Haha!You're a twerp!
I've given it some more thought, and I can see two possible scenarios play out for Boling next year (but of course, this is assuming things open up and meets are held at least largely in the more standard way).
The more conservative scenario sees him improve only moderately from his high school senior year over 100 meters. For arguments sake, lets call his 2019 ability the equivalent to a 10.15 basic 100m Dash (being conservative with it, you could maybe make a case even for 10.13/10.14). Lets say he "stalls" a bit and doesn't really adapt into an overall more "explosive" athlete and he only drops about .05 off his ability for 2021. That puts him at 10.10 basic, and then what his "ceiling" is for 2021 is reliant mostly on competition, health, and weather scenarios. If he had a "perfect" situation of a 2.0 wind in a place like El Paso or Albuquerque or Provo or whatever, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility of him squeezing out a legal 9.99, but it would be a bit of a smoke and mirrors job.
The more liberal/-perhaps fanboyish- scenario would see him dropping a nice chunk of time off his 2019 PR, considering that 2021 is two years after his senior year 10.15 "basic" season. I feel like even saying a number like 0.10 or 0.15 off his 2019 ability would still even be conservative, based on the history of some guys in their 17-22 age seasons, but you never really know until it happens. If he develops a nice pop out of the blocks and some nice acceleration ability through 30/40 meters, it's not really THAT outlandish to say something like 0.15; certainly young talented sprinters drop BIG time off their PRs all the time when they are primed for it. For arguments sake, lets say he cuts off the bigger "0.15" chunk off his basic time. That would theoretically put him at 10.00 just off the "basic" concept; meaning he could just show up somewhere and execute his proper race and he'd be right on the cusp of a sub 10 even without any aid of a tailwind or altitude.
Extrapolate from there, and 10.00 basic with a "perfect" +2.0 wind, even in just your run-of-the-mill altitudes, puts him right at the 9.90 barrier. Get a little extra adrenaline or a great start, and/or some altitude adjustment, and maybe he even squeezes out a 9.89 if everything came together just right. That already gets him into the sub 9.9 group you're asking about (though in the "basic" context, he's not really there). Perhaps that's a big if, but based on the numbers, it's not unreasonable to think possible.
The first scenario I theorize implies he's a very talented runner, but he doesn't have a high ceiling as far as 100m capability. The second scenario implies that running 10.15 basic as a 19 year old after never really competing in the distance prior to that season gives him ample room to make huge gains without running into the bottom of the barrel too much yet. Both are reasonable takes on the situation, as far as I can tell.
You know, he has a similar birth date situation to Lemaitre. Lemaitre was born June 11, 1990. Boling was born on June 20, 2000.
--Lemaitre at 19 ran an official 10.04 with only a +0.2 wind measurement. That's a legit 10.05ish basic at least, without running it through a calculator and checking for altitudes and such.
--Boling at 19 had probably his best 100 when he ran 10.11 with a +0.5 measured wind. A wind calculator calls that 10.13 basic. That's fairly close to Lemaitre, based on age, but it does give a clear edge to Lemaitre.
Interestingly, Lemaitre has official 100m Dash progressions featured on his World Athletics page dating all the way back to when he was 15 years old (he ran an 11.46 at that age, apparently). He had been running the 100 competitively for a WHILE time by the time he was 19. Between his age 18 season and age 19 season he was still able to go from a 10.35ish "basic" to the aforementioned 10.05 basic, but as already noted - that's after having competed in the distance for three for years already (even if he was just a kid, it's useful). After that age 18 to 19 improvement for Lemaitre, he stagnated BIG TIME. Say whatever you want for why, but regardless he honestly never really dropped much from that 10.05 basic ability; I don't think any of his best races even computes to a true sub 10 basic (i.e. a 9.92 with a +2.0 is essentially just a 10.02 basic result).
And so this is why I feel like it could go either way for Boling. Maybe he was just in great overall fitness as a high school senior, and any specialization isn't really going to make a dent on his ceiling. Maybe he loses interest. Maybe he gets hurt. But one could also argue that because he only ran one real year worth of 100s, he's probably apt to drop something in the vicinity of a tenth or more based solely on physical maturation and competition reps, let alone whether or not he obsessively refines his skills in the distance to get every last bit out of himself. And if you're already sitting at 10.15 basic, then any immediate drop from there is a pretty big deal.
Also of note: in Lemaitre's age 19 season, he has a PR progression of 20.68 in the 200m Dash (with a strong-but-legal wind of 1.9 on his back, though wind seems a bit trickier to judge in the 200). Boling ran 20.31 with a measured -0.8 wind recorded for the race last year at 19. Perhaps as a benefit from his years of being a 400 guy, he is actually far and away superior to Lemaitre at the same age. In the two years AFTER his age 19 season, Lemaitre dropped down to his 19.80 PR. You can't just take one guys curve and throw it onto another, but the fact that Boling's 20.31 into a head wind at age 19 probably compares fairly well even to Lemaitre's age 20 PR of 20.16 with a nice tail wind would probably make a case that Boling has a lot of chips in his corner not just in the 200, but probably in the 100 as well.
9.9x for Boling next year wouldn't be unexpected. I'd say if he isn't showing signs of touching that kind of result in just regular weather scenarios next year, that may well indicate that his improvement curve has already mirrored Lemaitre's and his 100 future is pretty limited. Maybe in that scenario it would be wise of him to concentrate more distinctly on the 2, 4, and/or LJ. But if he can pop some 9.95s with 1.0ish type winds, he should consider going all in on the 100 for a while longer.
Why it be "White" lightening?
[quote]gmsmcm wrote:
19.8 and 19.76 are two very different things in the world of sprinting,
No they're not.
moefarah1 wrote:
Why it be "White" lightening?
That is a good question, if indeed someone was lightening already pale skin.
Races 100m tomorrow
I'll guess 10.03
Sameold wrote:
Races 100m tomorrow
I'll guess 10.03
who?
Devin Quinn 10.01 runner.
Kidding, not sure when that guy races again, but Matt Boling Specs town invite. He won Long jump today.
Boling will never break 9.90, and will be more successful at 200m. There a sub 19.90 a very real possibility.
He IS posted as having lane 4 for the 100m dash tomorrow.
If he runs through the line, and the weather is fairly normal, I'm going to go ahead and predict a wind legal sub 10.
He'll go sub 10.1 at the very least, and depending on his weather, his training plan, and his angst over Laird and his 19.81, the ceiling could be "high" as sub 9.95.
I'd like to see him go 9.88 with a +1.9 just to shut someone up around here, but he probably shouldn't even try hard enough to attain that -even if he has the capability-....if he's smart about it anyway. But, with the world we live in today and how much god hates me when I try to predict things? Watch him go 10.24 with a +1.1. Wa waaaaaaaaa...
A sub 9,90 in ........April????
Whatley wrote:
A sub 9,90 in ........April????
A 19.81...in MARCH?!?!
Idiot Savant wrote:
If he runs through the line, and the weather is fairly normal, I'm going to go ahead and predict a wind legal sub 10.
He'll go sub 10.1 at the very least, and depending on his weather, his training plan, and his angst over Laird and his 19.81, the ceiling could be "high" as sub 9.95.
I'd like to see him go 9.88 with a +1.9 just to shut someone up around here, but he probably shouldn't even try hard enough to attain that -even if he has the capability-....if he's smart about it anyway. But, with the world we live in today and how much god hates me when I try to predict things? Watch him go 10.24 with a +1.1. Wa waaaaaaaaa...
God I hate you. For the record I've used bolding to illustrate proper emphasis and ultimate points.
For reference, and further for the record, a 9.88 with a +1.9 is worth about 9.97 or so.
If Symmonds is "The Bison", then Boling is the "Great White Buffalo".
Just to keep on top of things tomorrow:
Laird is scheduled to run the 100m tomorrow at the Crimson Tide Invitational. No 200. Might be kind of interesting; no real pressure on him as he's clearly better over 200, but, he's made such inroads over the 2, maybe he can make a leap in progression over 100.
It doesn't look like Micah Williams is running anything this weekend that I can tell. Has yet to do his 100 debut, and I'm sure the programs in no rush. His debut 200 was pretty good for him, I think.
Fahnbulleh also appears to be off competition his week.
I didn't realize, but Azamati -the guy who run a 9.97 at the Texas Relays- is in Division II. So to an extent, he doesn't really match up with these guys (in terms of NCAA title contentions, anyway). He also ran a 20.5x in the 200 after that sub 10, so I'd like to see what his next few 100s result in to see how that contextualizes that Texas Relays result.
To be fair Micah Williams went 20.4x in his college 200 debut, and that doesn't speak ill of HIS 100 abilities. But, still...I wanna keep an eye on him to see if that sub 10 was a bit flukish.
Depends on what he focuses on. I’m sure he breaks 10 seconds in his career anything below 9.9 only if he focuses on the 100m. He definitely is breaking 20.10 in the 200m tho and I’d be stunned if it’s not this summer. I can see him going 19.8.
He looks like a better 200-400 guy then 100-200. But when the Olympics won’t split the 200m and 400m up enough that the likes of Miller Uibo and Norman won’t even try to double up then who knows.
Why is the Olympics deal with this?! Michael Johnson had to threaten to only run one if they didn’t space them out more. Why won’t the Olympics space the 200 and 400 out?
It’s gets more guys on the teams or more medals for more individuals but you don’t get to see the best race against each other. It’s sucks.
Boling I think becomes the third (I think) person behind Wade and Norman to become the only men to run under 10, under 20, and under 44. Kenny Bednarek could possibly do this and Fred Curley is getting close.