Joshua Cheptegei's solo 3000m TT before Monaco. Is he ready to break Bekele's WR?

douglas burke wrote:

Cheptegei is a GREAT Runner, probably will be top 5-10 ALL TIME in the 5000, 10000, Half Marathon and Marathon, I could see him running UNDER 12:45, But just like Miruts Yifter did to Craig Virgin in the 1981 World Cup, Jakob Ingebritsen will stay right behind him until the last lap and then leave him in the dust in the Final 400, whatever Cheptegei runs J. Ingebritsen will be 2 or more Seconds ahead of him, so if Cheptegei wants the 5000 Record he better hope J. Ingebritsen is not in the race.

J.Ingebritsen can t follow a quick pace.

He also has a bad kick in a 5000 race.He has yet to win a 5000m against international competition.

Lion belt wrote:

douglas burke wrote:

Cheptegei is a GREAT Runner, probably will be top 5-10 ALL TIME in the 5000, 10000, Half Marathon and Marathon, I could see him running UNDER 12:45, But just like Miruts Yifter did to Craig Virgin in the 1981 World Cup, Jakob Ingebritsen will stay right behind him until the last lap and then leave him in the dust in the Final 400, whatever Cheptegei runs J. Ingebritsen will be 2 or more Seconds ahead of him, so if Cheptegei wants the 5000 Record he better hope J. Ingebritsen is not in the race.

J.Ingebritsen can t follow a quick pace.

He also has a bad kick in a 5000 race.He has yet to win a 5000m against international competition.

Dumbest post of week. As if no one watched Jakob nearly beat one of the best 5000 kickers in Geb last year. ...in basically just as fast a race as the WC final.

It's Cheptegei that has no chance in a world 5000 final. He has not won a 5000 against intl opposition and most definitely has no kick. Jakob is a 3:30 runner and closes a 5000 in 53. Cheptegei is far behind. Almost like a JV kid compared to Jakob in the 1500. Only way Cheptegei does well in a 5000 is in a time trial.

A fairly unbiased write up of what happened in the WC final. Basically Jakob committed a rookie mistake. Surely he has learned and gotten faster.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_World_Athletics_Championships_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_5000_metres

"On the final lap, Jakob Ingebrigsten made an early, aggressive (and consequently, fatal) move to the front. As he asserted his 1500m footspeed, Chelimo attempted to stay with him. Ahmed, Barega, and Edris were all wise to this error, and did not challenge Jakob as aggressively as Chelimo did. Barega and Edris passed Ahmed as they began winding up their pace in preparation for their final attack. As Jakob and Chelimo began running out of steam off of the final bend, Barega passed them first, with Edris coming wide on the outside. Edris sprinted past Barega to defend his title, with a final lap of 55 seconds. Ahmed and Bekele passed Ingebrigsten and Chelimo for the third and fourth place, respectively. Evidently suffering from his early move, Jakob Ingebrigtsen was slowing rapidly, and dove at the finish line for a very close fifth place. He then laid on the track, looking visibly exhausted."

j Cobb wrote:

Lion belt wrote:

J.Ingebritsen can t follow a quick pace.

He also has a bad kick in a 5000 race.He has yet to win a 5000m against international competition.

Dumbest post of week. As if no one watched Jakob nearly beat one of the best 5000 kickers in Geb last year. ...in basically just as fast a race as the WC final.

It's Cheptegei that has no chance in a world 5000 final. He has not won a 5000 against intl opposition and most definitely has no kick. Jakob is a 3:30 runner and closes a 5000 in 53. Cheptegei is far behind. Almost like a JV kid compared to Jakob in the 1500. Only way Cheptegei does well in a 5000 is in a time trial.

Didn't take you very long to forget about the DL final 5000m. Also Cheptegei did already outkick the likes of Barega or Kejelcha (unlike Jakob who lost vs Gebrhiwet who ran a sub27 10000m like 3 days prior), if anything his ability to close is is underrated

j Cobb wrote:

Lion belt wrote:

J.Ingebritsen can t follow a quick pace.

He also has a bad kick in a 5000 race.He has yet to win a 5000m against international competition.

Dumbest post of week. As if no one watched Jakob nearly beat one of the best 5000 kickers in Geb last year. ...in basically just as fast a race as the WC final.

It's Cheptegei that has no chance in a world 5000 final. He has not won a 5000 against intl opposition and most definitely has no kick. Jakob is a 3:30 runner and closes a 5000 in 53. Cheptegei is far behind. Almost like a JV kid compared to Jakob in the 1500. Only way Cheptegei does well in a 5000 is in a time trial.

Cheptegai does not have a great kick for 5000m but would decimate Jakob Ingebrigsten in a fast (sub 13) 5000m anytime, anywhere.

Jakob kick for 5 000 is average. He needs a slow race. He completely imploded at Doha and crashed because he attempted to kick strong in a sub 13 race. He finished over 13 because it is his ceiling.

Jakob can run a 53.7 second lap in a 13.03 race, but his kick is greatly diminished if the past goes faster.

He is a schoolboy compared to the best kickers like Edriss, who outkicked Mo Farah and then blew the field in Doha.

Not only Jakob can't run a very fast lap in a sub 13 race, but also he probably can't run a sub 2:25 last km in a 5000m.

His 1500 speed does not translate into a fast last 400 nor a fast last km. It's basically useless in the 5000m because he is neither fast after 4km nor has a better 400 than his opponent.

He is better than them at running 1500m with fresh legs but collapse if the pace is quick in a 5000, if there is a better last lap man or if someone decide to run a very fast last km.

He should stick to the 1500m where the field is weaker and the kenyans who are better than him are injury prone while the others who beat him are old (Maklhoufi, Lewandowski)

Would love to see Cheptegei"decimate" Jakob in a wr challenging 5000. You know why? Because Cheptegei would only pull Jakob to a 12:40 PR, and in turn likely falter and lose to him.

Jakobs speed does just nicely for him. Just ask Gebrihwet.

I wish he would stick to the 1500 as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 5000 is something you move up to once you get slower. If he could stick to the 1500& 3000 for the next few years I think he could go 3:26 & 7:25

If the pace is properly set, Cheptegei will defeat Jakob. He is stronger aerobically. Jakob might have a nice PB in him ~ 12:55?, but I do not think he is on par with the aerobic powerhouses of Barega, Kejelcha, Cheptegei and Edris just yet. A slower race, he might have a shot but when these guys (and that includes Chelimo) are on a ~54ish type close to run 13:02 isn't going to do it.

j Cobb wrote:

Jakobs speed does just nicely for him. Just ask Gebrihwet.

I wish he would stick to the 1500 as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 5000 is something you move up to once you get slower.

I wish Lyles would stick to the 100 as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 200 is something you move up to once you get slower.

I wish Norman would stick to the 200 as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 400 is something you move up to once you get slower.

I wish Korir would stick to the 400 as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 800 is something you move up to once you get slower.

I wish Lewandowski would stick to the 800 as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 1500 is something you move up to once you get slower.

I wish Kejelcha would stick to the 5K as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 10K is something you move up to once you get slower.

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

Quote Post wrote:

I'd take these results with a grain of salt. Altitude adjusted athletes don't necessarily run crazy fast once going down to sea level.

Not sure, but i believe is Mandela national stadium in Kampala.

True, it might be less than 4-5"/km, but also you have to note that Joshua now is at peak mileage, and this was a test before tapering(3 weeks to go). I assume when ready to go 100% he could have kept this pace for 5000m.

What this translates to a sea level race, i don't know, but pacing and weather will matter a lot, it will close and fun for sure.

Google says Kampala is 1200m altitude, not 2000m. So that is 3900ft for our American friends.

History shows that well adjusted East Africans do not run significantly faster at sea level than altitude, perhaps this 7:41 is worth 7:33 at sea level. Not 7:25 like someone posted.

We would need to know more details about the effort to know if he is in WR 5000m shape, but 7:41 is 12:48 pace. 7:33 would be 12:35 pace. 2000m is a long way to go.

j Cobb wrote:

Would love to see Cheptegei"decimate" Jakob in a wr challenging 5000. You know why? Because Cheptegei would only pull Jakob to a 12:40 PR, and in turn likely falter and lose to him.

Jakobs speed does just nicely for him. Just ask Gebrihwet.

I wish he would stick to the 1500 as that is where the big dogs are and where the truly fast runners reside. The 5000 is something you move up to once you get slower. If he could stick to the 1500& 3000 for the next few years I think he could go 3:26 & 7:25

If Cheptegai run in 12:40, then Jakob will finish in 13:05 because he can not follow a quick pace. He was dropped by Cheruiyot in the Doha 1500m at the stard and could not follow him.

Jakob has poor stamina, he can't follow a quick pace, he will suffocate, drop and give up.

Why would I ask Gebriwhet? He smoked Jakob and outkicked him. Jakob has never won a 5000m race against the Ethiopians. His record is loss, loss and loss.

You think Jakob could run 3:26? I laugh. He can't run 3:26 and can't run a fast 5000 neither.

5000m record is one of the toughest ones out there. Ugandan start might get close to it, but still seems a bit too much for anyone, we will see. Hopefully he will get good pacing. Remember Bekele ran on his own right after 2K that’s tough, but we all know Bekele was a Monster. I would say the greatest long distance we will ever see. The only reason he doesn’t have more 5k medals is because he left it open for his fellows teammates to get an opportunity for glory. He was unbeatable in the 5k too. Diamond league always running sub 13, big margin winning. Anyways that’s the reason you don’t see more golds on him impressive career.

Whether he gets the WR or not, to me it's just exciting that he is making a declared attempt on it. Has anybody done this (stated they were going for Kenny's 12:37) other than Kenny himself in 2005, when he ended up with a 12:40 after going out too fast? I'm not aware of anyone else seriously gunning for this WR since Kenneth.

Holy smokes. I first read that as 2,000 FEET and thought how that wouldn't change much of anything. But 2,000 METERS and running 7:41 in a time trial? That's impressive. He'll definitely have the world lead (Mo's 12:47), I think he'll give the WR a scare, but not quite get it.

Jakob couldn't hang/didn't have the stamina because he was 19 years old. It's easier to be at your best as a sprinter at a younger age, but we all know for distance running you have a long way to go still at 19 for most people. Didn't Jakob run right around 13 flat last year at world championships? I bet he'd be around 12:55 this year, maybe better in a perfectly paced race.

Had to look twice wrote:

Holy smokes. I first read that as 2,000 FEET and thought how that wouldn't change much of anything. But 2,000 METERS and running 7:41 in a time trial? That's impressive. He'll definitely have the world lead (Mo's 12:47), I think he'll give the WR a scare, but not quite get it.

Looks like it's actually 1,200 meters -- 4000ft.

So the NCAA conversion would make it about 7:32. Still, if it was solo and less than 100% I think he has a good chance at sub 12:40, and agree he will get the world lead.

Europe hosting sports making the United States look like a bunch of collective aholes.

Jakob is 19 folks. He will get there and already has a higher ceiling than Cheptegei since he's much faster at 1500. Everyone knows Cheptegei's best events are the 10000 and up. He hasn't shown anything yet in competition that indicates he can get the WR. He has to take over 20 seconds off of his track pb to get this record, I don't see it happening. That is a great run flat out and very impressive at that altitude but running history has no shortage of guys that put up ridiculous times in workouts and then wilt away on race day. As for Gressier I don't agree that he has no shot at ever getting the French record. He's young and I think capable eventually but if I had to bet I'd say over 13:05. If he goes for the French record I think he might blow up and run closer to 13:15 or so.

Bit harsh on Cheptegei. Things you are not mentioning about him:

12:51 solo 5K on the roads (yes I know the shoes)

Beat a 12:45 (Kejelcha) and 26:24 road guy (Kipruto) resoundingly in the 10,000 last season

World XC Champ (more pointing out that clearly this guy doesn't wilt on race day, his competitive record is excellent ~ 2/2 in Diamond League last season, double Commonwealth gold, World junior title)

His speed is the limiting factor, but between the 12:51, and the 8:07 win at Pre which didn't have ideal pacing I suspect he can run 61s.

You seem confused as to what letsrunners refer to when mentioning "runners"

100-400 are sprinters

800 are a hybrid

1500-10000 are runners