Will COVID be Worse in Winter?

douglas burke wrote:

It is a Respiratory Virus which usually are Worse in Winter? I haven't heard much talk on this, If it is Worse in Winter/Cold Weather, Than this might be the calm part.

Of course.

Began in the spring, got no better in the summer, will get worse in the fall, and worse again in the winter and spring. No better in the summer. The worse in the fall of 2021.

That's the narrative

Its magic wrote:

douglas burke wrote:

It is a Respiratory Virus which usually are Worse in Winter? I haven't heard much talk on this, If it is Worse in Winter/Cold Weather, Than this might be the calm part.

Of course.

Began in the spring, got no better in the summer, will get worse in the fall, and worse again in the winter and spring. No better in the summer. The worse in the fall of 2021.

That's the narrative

Agree, plus it appears be mutating which will add another wrinkle to the whole mess.

Yes it will be worse in the winter

In SoCal, I expect people to finally stop crowding beaches in the winter.

This will slow the spread and maybe get us to numbers where races can be held for a while. In cold places, I expect the opposite to happen with people congregating indoors.

Yeah I mean:

1. peoples' habits change, they're inside more --> transfers much easier in a contained air space

2. drier air allows the virus-containing respiratory globules to stay afloat longer

3. drier/colder air cracks the nasal membranes, allowing easier entry

4. less sunlight -> less vitamin d which is a risk factor once you get it

Definitely going to be a terrible fall and winter because people couldn't just sack up and wear a mask when outside the house.

Look at Italy, they locked up and now they have a very very low number per day. They even have some parties going on!

It didn't go away with the heat like Trump suggested, so maybe the cold will make it go away.

Current evidence is that infections almost never occur outdoors.

People typically spend more time indoors and in close quarters in winter, so it's likely that the disease will be more of a problem, yes.

Flu disappears in the summer because the air is more humid, making it harder for the virus to transmit as it attaches to moisture in the air and falls to the ground. Also, our nasal cavities are nice and moist in the summer. In the fall/winter, the air is drier and our nasal cavities dry out. This allows the flu virus to transmit from person to person.

Coronavirus has not been affected by summer heat like what we see with the flu. Logically, you would expect infection rates to go up as barriers to infection come down. So, it may be that in the fall/winter we will see the virus become even more contagious such that the amount of viral load that is needed to catch the virus can be transmitted faster in the winter. Now, it is believed that it takes about 10 min of exposure to airborne droplets to catch the virus. It is possible that it would take less time in the winter. It could also be that a higher viral load is transmitted in the winter with people having more severe cases. We really won't know until we get there, but it is hard to come up with a theory why transmission will not increase other than the virus is so contagious that weather conditions do not matter (which could be the answer).

The real threat for the fall and winter is the reemergence of the flu and lockdown fatigue. In the states seeing the current coronavirus surge, the health system is on the verge of collapse. Elective procedures have been cancelled. ICUs and ERs are full. Additional doctors and nurses are being flown in from the Northeast and are being sent in from the armed services. If you add the typical strain on the health system from the flu to this, you will see a complete collapse of the health system wherever there is a bad outbreak of the coronavirus.

Absolutely. As above plus the fact that the Pubs refuse to wear masks. By next March, over 1 million Americans will have perished. Most of the deaths would avoided if inceles would quit watching Fox news and watch more science based networks.

formerly present wrote:

Current evidence is that infections almost never occur outdoors.

People typically spend more time indoors and in close quarters in winter, so it's likely that the disease will be more of a problem, yes.

In large gatherings or so does. Obviously not as badly as indoors though.

Yea all of those 20-30 year olds out protesting or going to bars and restaurants are watching Fox News. Not everything that you dislike can be pinned on Fox News.

And right now it’s spreading in places where it’s too hot to spend much time outside so people have been spending more time inside in the AC.

Of course, when you get the flu you are actually sick. Quite sick.

Unlike Covid-19 where it seems the vast majority of these "cases" are asymptomatic.

What %?

Who knows.

That's being hidden from us.

Wonder why?

Best I could find mixes mild cases with asymptomatic cases.

80%

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/01/asymptomatic-patients

For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation

clarence burkes wrote:

Absolutely. As above plus the fact that the Pubs refuse to wear masks. By next March, over 1 million Americans will have perished. Most of the deaths would avoided if inceles would quit watching Fox news and watch more science based networks.

For the past two months we've held steady at a little under 1,000 U.S. deaths per day from this, this includes the past few weeks when we've supposedly had a spike. 1,000 deaths per day for a year is 365,000 deaths. Maybe I'm rusty with my math, but I don't think that's very close to 1,000,000. So roughly 1 out of 1,000 people will possibly die from coronavirus in the United States this year, even though we all really know most of the people dying are already in poor health and many would die in the next year anyway. Things could get twice as worse and we're still pretty far under your 1,000,000 number.

Can asymptomatic people give the disease to others?

And if they do, will those others have symptoms.

Experts claim not to know.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/11/transmission

Seeing the hole in this whole people who feel fine should wear a mask nonsense, "experts" are now claiming, with no evidence of course, that most of the disease is being spread from asymptomatic people! Just today!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/top-hhs-official-says-most-of-the-coronavirus-transmission-is-from-asymptomatic-people.html

It all depends on the banks and the policy they deem most expedient