If Mo Ahmed ran 12:47, i'm convinced Cheptegei can run 12:35 in Monaco!!

Bekele split around 5:06 at 2km. He closed solo in 7:31.

Barega closed around the same time, only he had a luxury pacemaker in Kejelcha.

Bekele was the kind of guy who would run his best on small negative splits. Had he split 5 flat (what he would regularly split on his 3km races) he would have likely ran 7:45 for the last 3km. 5:06 was the smart choice.

Who knows what he could have run with pacers until 4k? A guy who could run 10:07 was likely in 5k wr shape himself so he would have to get paid a lot of money to do so.

I can see the logic behind this hot take.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

For sure. But in his WR attempt Bekele ran 7 laps alone. He was probably good for 12:33-34.

^This.

On a similar note, consider Barega’s 12:43.02 in 2018, when the pacer hit 2k in 5:11.5 and Barega himself ran the last 3k in 7:30.x with a 56 last lap—how fast was he capable of in a truly ideal time trial? Sub-12:40 seems likely, which makes 12:37.35 seem less mythical.

I’ll be quite surprised if Cheptegei gets the record, but if the pacing and weather are good I think he could scare 12:40. Remember, he’s only 23 and hasn’t stopped improving yet.

if i recall correctly barega drafted off kejelcha the rest of the race, so not much different than a rabbit

Mo Ahmed would probably beat Cheptegei in a track 5000m.

ex-runner wrote:

Mo Ahmed would probably beat Cheptegei in a track 5000m.

nah

he beat him in rio in 2016 when cheptegei was 19 and moh was 25, but cheptegei has taken leaps since then. i cannot watch cheptegei lead half the time and then crush rhonex and kejelcha in doha and think moh would be close to him in a track 5000 now, with cheptegei 23 y/o.

Guys who underestimate Cheptegei are crazy

He ran 12:51 all by himself on a less than optimal course

From start to finish all alone! 12:51.

On a fast track, with champions all around wanting to break records, he'll go MINIMUM 12:39.

You heard it here 1st wrote:

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

Heard Monaco will be insane, Cheptegei + Gressier, Wanders, Henrik(Jakob either 5000 or 1500) are locked, with some other top africans guaranteed(coming with the same charter flight as Joshua). Mo Ahmed would be a great addition to an already stellar field. 12:37 might really go down this time

You know what flight these “other top Africans” are taking but don’t have any names?

Anyway, Jimmy Gressier 12:36

Lock it in.

Jimmy Gressier 12:36 lmfaoo you're crazy!

He was in peak form in Monaco and had Cheptegei as a rabbit, running at 12:51 pace, and he barely ran 13:18.

Jimmy Gressier won't break 12:50 this year.

NNPower wrote:

Unless bad weather, with the help of 1-2 pacemakers + wavelights, Joshua can't fail in beating the WR. I'd say he runs 12:34 with a ridiculous 57.xx last lap if everything goes well.

I agree too.

He could probably do 12:28.78.

birdbeard wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Mo Ahmed would probably beat Cheptegei in a track 5000m.

nah

he beat him in rio in 2016 when cheptegei was 19 and moh was 25, but cheptegei has taken leaps since then. i cannot watch cheptegei lead half the time and then crush rhonex and kejelcha in doha and think moh would be close to him in a track 5000 now, with cheptegei 23 y/o.

Mo has superior speed. Cheptegei is strong but he can get outkicked.

I think Mo's 12:47 was more impressive that Cheptegei's effort.

Cheptegei is only getting faster. I think with his 12:51 on the roads he realized he was in the WR ballpark, because in that race he ran alone from start to finish, and did not appear to be exhausted at the finish. I agree Chep is more of a strength runner than speed, he has learned that he needs to focus on speed to reach his potential.

I think he'll get around 12:40 in Monaco. He will learn a great deal from that, and will likely go after the record again at some later date.

ex-runner wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

nah

he beat him in rio in 2016 when cheptegei was 19 and moh was 25, but cheptegei has taken leaps since then. i cannot watch cheptegei lead half the time and then crush rhonex and kejelcha in doha and think moh would be close to him in a track 5000 now, with cheptegei 23 y/o.

Mo has superior speed. Cheptegei is strong but he can get outkicked.

I think Mo's 12:47 was more impressive that Cheptegei's effort.

What? Are we talking about the same Mohamed Ahmed who has a 1500pb of 3:39?

You are crazy if you think that Cheptegai is the best distance runner of all time and would easily beat the times of Bekele, Komen and Gebre.

Halvard wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Mo has superior speed. Cheptegei is strong but he can get outkicked.

I think Mo's 12:47 was more impressive that Cheptegei's effort.

What? Are we talking about the same Mohamed Ahmed who has a 1500pb of 3:39?

do we really think that 3:39 is representative of his 1500 ability? He probably ran something like 3:42 in the last 1500 of his 12:47. He also ran a 2 mile PR within that 5k. i think

ex-runner wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

nah

he beat him in rio in 2016 when cheptegei was 19 and moh was 25, but cheptegei has taken leaps since then. i cannot watch cheptegei lead half the time and then crush rhonex and kejelcha in doha and think moh would be close to him in a track 5000 now, with cheptegei 23 y/o.

Mo has superior speed. Cheptegei is strong but he can get outkicked.

I think Mo's 12:47 was more impressive that Cheptegei's effort.

Cheptegei outkicked Kejelcha at WCs in the 10,000m. If he can outkick the indoor mile WR holder, I think he can outkick the dude with a 3:39 1500 PR. His endurance is better than his speed but he has enough speed to crush Ahmed.

I do not think Mo's 12:47 is superior to Cheptegei's solo 12:51 on the roads. Mo had perfect pacing and drafted the majority o the race. Cheptegei was out front the entire race. Also not more impressive than Cheptegei's sub-27 outkicking Kejelcha for a WC in which he led half the time is also more impressive than Ahmed's 12:47. Worth noting he crushed Ahmed in that race as well.

birdbeard wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Mo has superior speed. Cheptegei is strong but he can get outkicked.

I think Mo's 12:47 was more impressive that Cheptegei's effort.

Cheptegei outkicked Kejelcha at WCs in the 10,000m. If he can outkick the indoor mile WR holder, I think he can outkick the dude with a 3:39 1500 PR. His endurance is better than his speed but he has enough speed to crush Ahmed.

I do not think Mo's 12:47 is superior to Cheptegei's solo 12:51 on the roads. Mo had perfect pacing and drafted the majority o the race. Cheptegei was out front the entire race. Also not more impressive than Cheptegei's sub-27 outkicking Kejelcha for a WC in which he led half the time is also more impressive than Ahmed's 12:47. Worth noting he crushed Ahmed in that race as well.

Kipruto did all of the leg work. He led the most distance by far. After him was Mande (Uganda), Cheptegei's personal pacer for this race.

Cheptegei DID lead from 3300-3800m, a few sprinkles around 5k/6k, from 8800-9800m, and 9900-10000m for a grand total of about 2000m (20% of the race).

I wouldn't call Cheptegei beating Ahmed by 10 seconds in a 10k after Ahmed won a 5k medal earlier in the week a 'crushing' either, but maybe that's just me. Also, Kejelcha in the WC's was not the same Kejelcha from indoors - hence his absence from the 5k.

(100m leader splits on the final page)

Time will tell guys, August 14 is soon enough. Addy Ruiter is one of the most intelligent coaches i have ever seen and talked to, he repeatedly said Joshua's talent is unparalleled and if he stays injury free is destined for greatness. Until now, every single major goal Ruiter set, Joshua accomplished. Addy would never advise him to publicly say he is going for the WR unless he thinks Joshua has a far greater chance of breaking it than failing. I'll go with a negative split and a new WR 12:33-12:35. He is on par with Bekele, Komen, Geb regarding talent, with better technology and coaching, very simple.

birdbeard wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Mo has superior speed. Cheptegei is strong but he can get outkicked.

I think Mo's 12:47 was more impressive that Cheptegei's effort.

Cheptegei outkicked Kejelcha at WCs in the 10,000m. If he can outkick the indoor mile WR holder, I think he can outkick the dude with a 3:39 1500 PR. His endurance is better than his speed but he has enough speed to crush Ahmed.

I do not think Mo's 12:47 is superior to Cheptegei's solo 12:51 on the roads. Mo had perfect pacing and drafted the majority o the race. Cheptegei was out front the entire race. Also not more impressive than Cheptegei's sub-27 outkicking Kejelcha for a WC in which he led half the time is also more impressive than Ahmed's 12:47. Worth noting he crushed Ahmed in that race as well.

Moh ran a strong final 2k of which the majority was by himself. That is the kind of finish that Cheptegei cannot manage in a 5k. 3:58 final 1600 is shifting.

To the guy mentioning Ahmed's 3:39 1500m, please go and watch the Doha 5k. He has no problems outkicking the fastest in the world including everyone's favourite 3:30 running Norwegian.

Moh has superior speed and I would put my money on him over Cheptegei in a normal track race over 3k/5k. 10k is different.

Just that Cheptegei will run 3x1600m in 4:01-4:03 + a 200m kick. This is speed endurance at it's best.

Edris and Barega outkicked Mo Ahmed. Kejelcha probably would have a shot too in a 5000m.

But I agree that Mo Ahmed beat Cheptegai most often than not in a 5000m because he has a better finish. The few races were Cheptegai went with the pack at the end of a 5 000 he got soundly outkicked by the ethiopians. He finished between 4th and 7th.

Cheptegai outkicked Kejelcha with a very nice finish in the WC but lets not forget that the pace was quick and that Kejelcha was very stupid to run the whole last lap on the outside lane. He should have waithed the final straight.

Bekele would have outkicked Cheptegai in all his 10 000 races. The Uganda guy is a great 10 000m runner but doesn't have this special kick.