bengel wrote:
that calculator is completely off shell.
You were all saying the same stuff when Ventolin predicted that Farah would crush that 1500m and run 3:29/3:28.
The reality is that the 3000m record isn't as hard as you all think, even if no one could get close to it because of a lot of circumstances. El Guerrouj in his 7:23 race had a good 2k split but his first 2k was very uneven so he was already really exhausted, but with a good even race and a good attempt, he could have run 7:18/7:19. Even peak shape Farah would have gotten that record. 7:24 is 2 times 3:42 1500m, it doesn't seem THAT insane to me that Jakob could run that in a perfect attempt. I'm sure if Jakob has a shot one day in his life at a world record, it's for sure the 3000m (also the two miles which is way weaker but there are little chances he runs a two miles)
We'll see in the future, I know it seems insane right now but time will tell us.
Here are some predictions that may fit better (if we think Jakob was more in a 3:30 high shape when he ran that early season 800) :
400 0:49.99
800 1:46.44
1000 2:15.67
1500 3:30.7
1-mile 3:47.35
3000 7:26.27
2-mile 8:01.42
5000 12:54.72
10000 27:14.46
It doesn't change the point because even with that I still see Jakob beating Ahmed in Tokyo 2021.