Solomon on Brazier: “I know eventually he’s going to break the world record”

Why do you think even splits are the way to go for 800m?

Agree about the pacing lights. Pacing lights of 25.25 exactly for each 200m

1.5 seconds to improve from his time as a (lightly trained) 22 year-old. I’m confident he would take more time off this season as a 23 year-old if there were races. Shame that we are losing a season in Brazier’s prime.

ex-runner wrote:

I still think Amos is more likely to break the WR than Brazier.

Amos last season, before he got injured, showed exactly the kind of balls Kipketer showed. He went out way too fast but still held it together for a 1:42.

In the 800 you need the confidence and lack of fear to go out fast and see what happens.

Sometimes, on a particular day, you will hold on to a decent pace after a fast first lap and run a crazy time.

It is not hard for me to imagine Amos going out in 49.0, splitting 1:14 at 600 and then holding on for a sub 27 to break 1:41.

If he didn't pull his hamstring in London and need a couple of weeks off we might have seen it last year.

I really agree with you here on the mindset. Really the key to 800m WR, as it was with Kipketer, is really committing to the 3rd 200m after getting as close as you can to the red line in the first 400m. Whoever does this needs to be 1.14.2 at 600m so figure your math from here.

It's interesting because I don't think Amos is quite as gifted at this point in his career as Brazier, but you make a good point that we know for a fact that Amos is prepared to lay it out there and we don't know this yet about Brazier who 1) hasn't even tested running low 49 through the bell and 2) hasn't committed to hammering the 3rd 200 after doing so.

Without the mindset to break the WR the physical ability means nothing and not every 800m runner just has "it". The odds are Brazier is going to have to try some insane splits like 48.9, 1.14.XX and then explode in a blaze of glory (unless he magically get's it right first time which would be incredible) - and how he mentally deals with that will be the essence of his potential.

Where perhaps we can agree to disagree is Amos's ability now. I would be stunned if he has another run in him close to the WR, even under 1.42 again. 1) even the greats only have a limited number of efforts at that level in them. Of the 5 athletes ever that broken 1.42, Rudisha did it 7 times, Kipketer 4, Coe and Cruz did it once and Amos twice. When you look at that list Amos is the least decorated of them all and the least talented (obviously we are talking of some all-time elite talents in the history of the sport though), so he's probably tapping his limits having run sub 1.42 twice. He just doesn't have the mechanics to support a low 1.41 race because his form is still atrocious under intense stress - especially compared to Rudisha and Kipketer who are two of the greatest movers in the history of running.

On the topic of running form it's interesting to note how crucial this is to the 800m at a sub 1.42 level. Kipketer to me is the greatest mover of all time and I know many pro's who saw him up close and personal agree with that - even in the era of El G. Rudisha a different type of runner more in the Juantorena mold of long, powerful and sustained striding and Coe of course had the moniker of "poetry in motion". Cruz similar to Rudisha with a massive stride that was a bit ungainly but sustainable under pressure. It is interesting that the two best guys right now, Brazier and Amos aren't really on that level. I don't know where I sit with Brazier tbh - maybe it's the hunched shoulders and overly bouncy gait that make him appear choppy? As I mentioned earlier I am still stunned and perplexed by how fast Amos has actually run because he is so awful in the last 120m. I mean I have my thoughts about athletes who can overcome and fight cr@ppy form in latter stages of races and still run incredibly fast (example Rashid Ramzi) but that's a different topic I guess.

Back to Brazier - what do I think he will run then? Well he has the physical ability to run very fast - the mental mindset I have no idea. So let's make it simple - if he has the mental aspect he can run 1.41.2, 1.41.3 - if not I think he can maybe take another 3/10ths off his current level and run 1.42.0

No, that isn't what he said to me when I asked him about it at a book signing in 2012. I told him that he would have run 1:41.5 in Firenze had he not had to run wide on penultimate bend. I then asked how fast he thought he could have run that season, 1981, had he had a few more attempts at it later in the year. He stated, '1:41.2'. When I then added what this would have been on 'today's (2012) tracks like the Olympic London one, he said, 'then a few tenths faster'.

That is not the same as saying he would have front run a sub 1:41 like Rudisha. He was just making the point that the tracks today are faster than those he ran on in 1981, which to me is pretty obvious.

I would suggest that the tracks in 2020 have probably not moved on in any significant way since 2012, but the shoes certainly have. It remains to be seen how quick the latest carbon plated and energy return soles propel Brazier over 800m.

Now may be the time to go after it. With these training groups setting up their own time trials Pete Julian can set it perfectly and Brazier in the right mindset with perfect pacing and Oregon weather.

Runner10287 wrote:

Now may be the time to go after it. With these training groups setting up their own time trials Pete Julian can set it perfectly and Brazier in the right mindset with perfect pacing and Oregon weather.

I see his best bet as hitting 25 second 200m splits on the dot, come through 600m at 1:15 exactly then see what he can do. Who says no?

ex-runner wrote:

I still think Amos is more likely to break the WR than Brazier.

Amos last season, before he got injured, showed exactly the kind of balls Kipketer showed. He went out way too fast but still held it together for a 1:42.

In the 800 you need the confidence and lack of fear to go out fast and see what happens.

Sometimes, on a particular day, you will hold on to a decent pace after a fast first lap and run a crazy time.

It is not hard for me to imagine Amos going out in 49.0, splitting 1:14 at 600 and then holding on for a sub 27 to break 1:41.

If he didn't pull his hamstring in London and need a couple of weeks off we might have seen it last year.

I do not know about Amos going forward, but he was extremely fit last summer. I am intrigued by Amos' 400m p.b. as it relates to his 800m potential. With Amos, his first 400m split is not as import as his first 200m split. If Amos arrives at 49.0 1st lap by splitting first 200m, 23.25, the 800m race will not go well. I agree with splitting 600m, 74 seconds.

Emma Stoned wrote:

I see his best bet as hitting 25 second 200m splits on the dot, come through 600m at 1:15 exactly then see what he can do. Who says no?

Basically every WR and every elite PR ever run.

Of the 3 fastest times in history 1.40.91, 1.41.11 and 1.41.73 (runners best performance - Rudisha, Kipketer, Coe and Amos together) the only two real candidates for possible improvement, in my opinion, are Kipketer and Coe.

Popular consensus is that Rudisha, in a paced one off race (like Zurich, Rieti, Brussels) could have run even faster but I disagree with that. Rudisha was at his absolute best dictating his own pace and rhythm - something that rarely happened with this buddy Sammy Tangui doing the pace (side note - Tangui was an ATROCIOUS pacemaker, who despite training with Rudisha never seemed to be able to run a controlled or even 48.8-49.0 and rarely went more than 430m without rigging badly - not exactly great to see in front of you). In London Rudisha had the perfect combination of weather, incentive, form and ultimately ability to control his tempo and stride unimpeded. His splits in the London final were as optimal as possible - 24.0, 25.3, 25.0, 26.6 - even with a pacemaker running around these numbers I wonder if the draft benefit would be negated by the impeding of stride (which simply happens no matter what). In great weather like London, the benefit of drafting especially over an event as short as 800m is kind of unknown but I would guess is at the point of diminishing returns.

Amos too is at his limit having had the benefit of the same track conditions and incentive as well as having Rudisha's back to look at the entire way. In London he passes Kaki down the back straight (no real distance disadvantage) and has to run maybe 25 on the outside of lane 1 to pass Aman on the final curve. That tiny disadvantage is offset by the stimulus of having to pass those guys which probably springboards him in that final 300m after Rudisha. He is at breaking point and there isn't much more he's getting out of himself.

Coe is more interesting having run on an extremely weird looking track of which the condition is totally unknown and in a low key meet on a Wednesday night in Florence. He does get a nice pacemaking job (but again nice weather over 800m = a big unknown) but definitely suffers from passing Konchellah over 400-500m which is right on the curve. I do agree that in a different atmosphere and not having to have run that curve in lane 2 that Coe runs in the vicinity of 0.5 seconds faster.

But Kipketer is the great "what if" - not from Koln but from Zurich 11 days earlier. To put into perspective the madness of going through 400m in 48.4 seconds, just think about what happened to Amos going through 400m at the same speed almost 22 years later. 28.5 seconds in the final 200m is what happened. Kipketer for the record managed around 26.6 seconds after a slightly slow 3rd 200m of 26.1 (Rudisha 25.0 in London). The fact that he ran even faster in Koln off almost 1 second slower at 400m tells me that on this hot night in Zurich, with that track surface (the old mondo that I can tell you from experience was a like a runway) and that crowd atmosphere, that if that first 400m had been a little more controlled (48.9-49.0) he could have run even faster than he did in the final 400m than he did in Koln (51.9) If he does that maybe the mark Rudisha has to gun for is something more like 1.40.7

This is my opinion but it's one that is shared by a few - including Rudishas former manager James Templeton. I remember talking to him briefly after London and he specifically mentioned the Kipketer Zurich race and how they were thankful they got out that hard because it ended up capping the WR and that Kipketer really should have well under 1.41 that night. In 2004 when I talked to Kipketer about it himself days before the Olympic final, I asked him if he thought that first 400m was too fast and he kind of wryly smiled and said that he just wanted to make of breaking the WR after having tied it in Stockholm and him and his coach believed they had to set up a large buffer at 500m in order to do so. He did also tell me thought he could have run 1.40.5 which fits with what I believe he could have done. Knowing the pain of the 800m and how fine that line is in the first 400m, this race in Zurich is still the most stunning piece of 800m running I've ever seen and that is no disrespect to Rudisha's amazing run in London.

BTW in case you didn't know I love discussing the 800m so any conversation on this event is good conversation.

"wanted to make sure of breaking the WR after having tied it in Stockholm"

Who else wishes they could edit posts here.

You guys are forgetting Cruz, who was better than Coe.

I think Brazier can most definitely threaten 1:40.8-1:40.9 WR. I think he may give it a shot later this summer in an exhibition all-out attempt. Kid is on another planet right now.

Wesley Vazquez will give Brazier a few more opportunities in championship races to run very fast, I am sure. With the added aerobic ability this year and next from higher mileage and longer workouts, which is cumulative over several years, Brazier will have a very good chance to drop his 800m by a second, maybe more. So, the WR might be in play. Right now, you figure that there are three current guys with a chance at the world record, Brazier, Amos, and Korir, but I'd really like to see Brazier in a very fast paced Monaco-style 1500m. If Wheating could go 3:30 in his first Monaco while hanging on at the back most of the way, why not Brazier?

9 1:41.73 Nijel Amos BOT 15.03.94 2 London 09.08.2012

18 1:42.05 Emmanuel Korir KEN 15.06.95 1 London 22.07.2018

20 1:42.14 Nijel Amos BOT 15.03.94 1 Monaco 20.07.2018

29 1:42.34 Donavan Brazier USA 15.04.97 1 Ad-Dawhah 01.10.2019

Amos also ran 1:41.89 in 2019.

under a bridge wrote:

Emma Stoned wrote:

I see his best bet as hitting 25 second 200m splits on the dot, come through 600m at 1:15 exactly then see what he can do. Who says no?

Basically every WR and every elite PR ever run.

Those are in race conditions though. This would be in a time trial

You are so right. We don't know what he'll do in the future so we should just appreciate his greatness now. Nijel Amos ran 1:41.73 at the 2012 Olympics when he was 18 and 8 years later hasn't broken the world record. Timothy Kitum ran 1:42.53 that same day at 18 years of age and I don't think he's progressed much since then. We'll see what happens with Brazier.

It will be interesting to see what Max Burgin ends up running. In the 2012 Olympic final Nijel Amos ran 1:41.73 at the age of 18 and Timothy Kitum ran 1:42.53 at the age of 18. Neither one has run that fast since although Nijel Amos came close last year...nearly 8 years later. Good luck to Max!

You're right about temperament being a factor in performance. It affects the ability to train, rebound from disappointments, and run to one's full potential.

Sapel wrote:

You guys are forgetting Cruz, who was better than Coe.

I think Brazier can most definitely threaten 1:40.8-1:40.9 WR. I think he may give it a shot later this summer in an exhibition all-out attempt. Kid is on another planet right now.