Let's assume Boston happens as planned in 2021. (If it doesn't, I have a backup marathon that's even more likely to happen as scheduled.) In my area there are 2 races coming up, in 8 and 12 weeks, with all distances from 5K-marathon available. The overriding goal is to run well in Boston. What are my best choices for this late summer/fall?
My current BQ (2:53) will be well under the qualifying standard for my 2021 age group. A faster BQ time might get me an AG target on my back. I have a sub-1:18 HM from last fall. After some injuries this spring, I'm back to 60+ mpw, but I've only done a few, mostly moderate workouts apart from weekly 20-minute tempo runs (at slower than HM pace). I have a recent 10K time of around 36:50 and a 5K time of around 17:40 from races, each with a one-week taper.
It would probably take me 6 weeks of low, easy mileage to recover from an all-out HM race, and 8 weeks from a marathon. At least that's been the reality the last couple years. If it makes a difference, my winter training will mean running in life-threatening cold and ice, or risky use of an indoor track/treadmill.
I'm leaning toward running a 10K tuneup (I probably can't recover from an all-out HM in 4 weeks) and then a marathon. I've only run 1 marathon, could use more experience at the distance, and might get a faster seed time. Drawback: It'll be Thanksgiving before I'm recovered and can start building up mileage again.
Other options:
5K/10K or 5K/5K to avoid a long layoff.
HM (MP effort)/marathon (race).
Something else.
It doesn't matter, because it's too far out from Boston to make a difference.
What race distances would you choose?