My guess is they could both go sub 14:30.
Whenever I see BTC intstagram posts, it seems like they are usually in a separate group from Cranny et al who ran last night.
My guess is they could both go sub 14:30.
Whenever I see BTC intstagram posts, it seems like they are usually in a separate group from Cranny et al who ran last night.
Sub 14:30 not a chance. Houlihan ran much faster in the final last year over 1500. I would guess a little better than Schweizer was last year but not by much. SH says she's very strong aerobically so perhaps she's in 14:35-14:40 shape with KS a few seconds back.
She ran 14:34 in 2018. She is better now than then. So you can say not a chance, but you would be incorrect. Maybe not 14:29 but certainly a good chance. If you would be willing to give 10-1 odds since you say no chance, I will bet you any amount you want and you will probably get hundreds more takers here.
if elise cranny runs 14:48 (in a perfectly paced race)...then Houlihan has gotta be in american record shape. they paced about 4000m at 14:50ish pace after running a 1500 maybe 45min earlier.
I wanna see houlihan take down the 10,000 AR.
Shelby & Karissa paced the 5k race thru 9.5 laps at 72/lap which works out to exactly a 15-flat 5k.
Here are the splits:
https://live.athletictiming.net/meets/6154/athletes/3522249
They did this after running 4:02s in an unrabbited 1500m race.
There will be another BTC meet on Friday, 7/10. Those who ran the 5k last night will be running something shorter. Those who ran the 1500m will run something longer.
Ken Goe/Oregonlive has already reported that OTC Elite & Team Julian were considering joining in last night's races. Whether it's on July 10th or another meet later in the month, we'll see Shelby & Karissa go all out in a 5k as well as Lopez & Mo in their 5k with other runners such as Koko or Eric Jenkins.
Back to answering the question: that women's 5k race -- whenever it's held -- will be rabbited (likely by Quigley, Frerichs & Cranny) at 14:30 pace to give SH & KS the best chance possible to break SH's 14:34 AR. Just like Kate Grace rabbited them at 8:30 pace in February to make sure they got under Flanagan's 8:33/3k indoor AR.
With Koko likely in the race and the de facto rabbit the last few laps, 14:30 is not only doable but likely what they expect to do.
I believe we'll see 3 sub 14:30s in the same race sometime this month.
As well as an attempt on Lagat's 12:53 AR by Lopez where he & Mo could possibly be rabbited at 12:50 pace.
Rumor of Engels and Mead also in the 7/10 10 5k.
As Houlihan ran 14:34 in a supposedly non-ideal race, one would certainly expect her to be able to get sub 14:30. And since Schweizer beat her indoors, she could not be far behind. Admittedly it would be a huge improvement for Schweizer, 17 secs. in 2019 and about the same amount this year, but in line with her 3k indoors. I don't know what shape Koko is in nowadays but she was in low 14:20s shape last year (all 3 sub 14:30 races were negatively split and none with competent pacers) and it's hard to imagine her being not in ca. 14:30 shape, if healthy and in normal training.
reed wrote:
if elise cranny runs 14:48 (in a perfectly paced race)...then Houlihan has gotta be in american record shape. they paced about 4000m at 14:50ish pace after running a 1500 maybe 45min earlier.
I wanna see houlihan take down the 10,000 AR.
What does AR stand for?
I'd ballpark them at 14:35-40. With a couple more weeks training they could threaten the AR - will they be going for it this month like Lomong/Ahmed doing a 5000m?
I don't see them beating Koko...but stranger things have happened.
Count me surprised if.... wrote:
I don't see them beating Koko...but stranger things have happened.
Like Purrier beating Koko, Reekie and Stafford in the Millrose Mile with an US indoor record. The best of the BBs can lose to Koko and still run low/sub 14:30s. Their indoor 3k marks are about as good and Schweizer is certainly more of a 5000m runner.
To answer question above, AR = American Record.
Alexa Efraimson, a Nike athlete, also lives in the general Portland area. Could see her in a 1500m or 3k race with BTC and the other teams.
Hassan Mead trained with the BTC Bros last summer at their Park City camp so would expect him to jump into a 5k with those guys.
Woody Kincaid and Marc Scott were both pictured in various IG posts last week in Park City, so was surprised they opted out of Tuesday's race. Probably were still recovering from the camp so Jerry gave them a rain check.
By the way, if you check the splits, Lopez & Mo led the men's 5k through 3k in 8:06 -- that is just a bit over 13:30 pace. They picked up the pace a little over the next two laps before dropping out but then the top-4 really lowered the hammer over the last 3 laps to get the final times down to 13:11 - 13:14. This would suggest they could have maintained a faster early pace and broken 13:10.
McGorty, Fisher, Jager, Hill should put up some really fast 1500m or 3k times on 7/10.
Schweizer's 8:25 AR is worth 14:28 for 5000m
Tiberius Tony wrote:
reed wrote:
if elise cranny runs 14:48 (in a perfectly paced race)...then Houlihan has gotta be in american record shape. they paced about 4000m at 14:50ish pace after running a 1500 maybe 45min earlier.
I wanna see houlihan take down the 10,000 AR.
What does AR stand for?
american record
sharkriderrunner wrote:
What does AR stand for?[/quote]
american record[/quote]
And just to precise :
NR means Nation Record as just in the US.
AR means American record as in entire American continent.
I say it because for many people they think American means US.
Starno wrote:
sharkriderrunner wrote:
What does AR stand for?
american record[/quote]
And just to precise :
NR means Nation Record as just in the US.
AR means American record as in entire American continent.
I say it because for many people they think American means US.[/quote]
You got it wong.
Starno wrote:
sharkriderrunner wrote:
What does AR stand for?
american record[/quote]
And just to precise :
NR means Nation Record as just in the US.
AR means American record as in entire American continent.
I say it because for many people they think American means US.[/quote]
Only in the USA does it mean American Record. Everywhere else it means Area Record.
I said AR because we are in American so it could mean American Record, but more precisely it means Area Record. There can't be too many Area Records for North America that aren't American though.
reed wrote:
I said AR because we are in American so it could mean American Record, but more precisely it means Area Record. There can't be too many Area Records for North America that aren't American though.
Canada dominates the walks. So there.
toaster wrote:
reed wrote:
I said AR because we are in American so it could mean American Record, but more precisely it means Area Record. There can't be too many Area Records for North America that aren't American though.
Canada dominates the walks. So there.
Canadians are North Americans so therefore they can set an American record. "American" does not specically refer to the people of the United States.