Scott Gottlieb says half of the U.S. will have had COVID-19 by the end of 2020

jamin wrote:

If there have been 2.5 million diagnosed cases in first 6 months then how do you end up with over 160 million in next 6 months?

Because he isn't reflecting only diagnosed cases.

And there won't be 160 million diagnosed cases.

But there may be 160 million people that have been exposed to it, with the vast majority of them not getting sick enough to see a doctor or bother with getting a test.

Star wrote:

jamin wrote:

If there have been 2.5 million diagnosed cases in first 6 months then how do you end up with over 160 million in next 6 months?

Because he isn't reflecting only diagnosed cases.

And there won't be 160 million diagnosed cases.

But there may be 160 million people that have been exposed to it, with the vast majority of them not getting sick enough to see a doctor or bother with getting a test.

B.S. on your post. What a liberal liar you are! You are clueless!

Quite the opposite--it just shows how wildly inaccurate the models they were using were--projecting a mortality around two million. The case fatality rate is much lower than that. Only certain population segments, e.g. immunocompromised or nursing home patients should have been quarantined. Otherwise, this spreads like wildfire similar to certain strains of the flu and social distancing and wearing of masks are not particularly effective. This was born out by serology studies in Santa Clara County, LA, and other localities. The purpose of the lockdowns was never to reduce death rates from Cov 19 but not to overwhelm hospital facilities. However, this goalpost has moved so now most people are convinced that you need to cancel most activities and wear masks to save lives--thus many of these science authorities have been talking out of two sides of there mouth and terrifying the public as well.

Our data very early on was limited. You're surprised one would have an incorrect forecast with limited data?

Nobody has been saying millions of deaths in the US since March. It has been patently obvious since early April the IFR was much lower.

It's likely the pandemic will take between 300K and 500K in the US at this point. But it heavily depends on human behavior. Could be higher. Might be lower. Depends on how people respect the disease.

interested reader wrote:

interested reader wrote:...the day the US reaches 2600 THOUSAND cases (the jhu site has the US at 2,590,582 as I type...).

I just want to marvel about this a little more, the breathtaking stupidiy. It's a "bad" prediction to be off by, say, a factor of 2, ut let's set the bar for "bad" at a factor of ten, or one order of magnitude.

Wiggy's confident prediction, for no more than 2600 cases, was off by not one, not two, but THREE (and counting) orders of magnitude.

Let that wash over you. Contemplate the broader meaning. Imagine, a world free of such dunces and simpletons.

You might be off by an additional order of magnitude [actual infected is roughly estimated at around 5-10x current confirmed cases].

Also hopefully we realize that 2600 thousand is in fact || within a single % or so of 2.59m yes?

Just making sure...

He is a bit out of his lane to make that prediction. He is not an infectious disease expert or a data scientist. He is also getting way ahead of the science claiming that vaccination rates of 40% will get herd immunity. We do not know that much about acquired immunity to be able to say that people contracting the virus will still have immunity by winter. And the vaccine may not confer sufficient immunity to prevent infection and transmission. It may just limit the extent of the infection (which would still be very valuable to take away all the bad reactions).

I think he just made a back of the napkin calculation before coming on the show by looking at current R factor and doing a messy extrapolation out over time. But I will say that it is definitely possible for the virus to spread that quickly if people stop using masks and go back to pre-pandemic life.

What does Gilbert Gottfried have to say?

I kept looking back at the posting date. I was surprised to see its current.

Why does anyone care about the infection rate? Its infectious. Who cares about infection load?

All you should care about is the death rate. 125,000

Its not the flu. The flu seems to be seasonal and it averages 25K dead of all ages.

This is happening everywhere in every country without regard to the season. And it didn't miraculously disappear by Easter.

And if it is flu like, this going to be back next year, if it actually takes a break.

We need a vaccine. Simple as that.

And say goodbye to any elderly friends, you may not get another chance if they get the virus

runnER/DR wrote:

Our data very early on was limited. You're surprised one would have an incorrect forecast with limited data?

Nobody has been saying millions of deaths in the US since March. It has been patently obvious since early April the IFR was much lower.

It's likely the pandemic will take between 300K and 500K in the US at this point. But it heavily depends on human behavior. Could be higher. Might be lower. Depends on how people respect the disease.

It's likely the pandemic will take between 300K and 500K in the US at what point? Tomorrow, the end of the year, five years from now?

At least wiggy had the balls to make a prediction this is patently garbage

heywoodja wrote:

I kept looking back at the posting date. I was surprised to see its current.

Why does anyone care about the infection rate? Its infectious. Who cares about infection load?

All you should care about is the death rate. 125,000

Its not the flu. The flu seems to be seasonal and it averages 25K dead of all ages.

This is happening everywhere in every country without regard to the season. And it didn't miraculously disappear by Easter.

And if it is flu like, this going to be back next year, if it actually takes a break.

We need a vaccine. Simple as that.

And say goodbye to any elderly friends, you may not get another chance if they get the virus

Where are you getting your patently wrong average?

Is the flu unique to the US or does it happen everywhere in every country?

It did disappear for about, what, a week maybe two. Now it’s back on the news.

It is flu like and it will be back so keep hiding, the highways don’t miss you.

The virus isn’t the only reason to appreciate old people. You should go visit your mom at the nursing home she misses you.

Giles Corey wrote:

Four plus months in....still don't know a soul who has been sick with this nor heard of any of the "celebs" they have told us have died from it.

Be afraid. Do what you are told. Question nothing. The elites are looking out for us

In other words, you are implying that if there were around 132 random people from the USA, you should know at least one, otherwise its not random??

I am Sam wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Four plus months in....still don't know a soul who has been sick with this nor heard of any of the "celebs" they have told us have died from it.

Be afraid. Do what you are told. Question nothing. The elites are looking out for us

In other words, you are implying that if there were around 132 random people from the USA, you should know at least one, otherwise its not random??

Not sure where you got that number from. I believe the official number of Covid cases in America is 2,690,000. Not 132. And the latest narrative is that is may be ten times that number

Four plus months into a deadly pandemic due to a super infectious virus that is infecting so many people that we had to shut down the economy and we get 24/7 media saturation coverage, one might expect to see actual signs of it in real life. We are told nearly one in every one thousand Americans, perhaps as many as one in every hundred, has been infected.

Don't you think? You ever study stats and probabilities?

Giles Corey wrote:

I am Sam wrote:

In other words, you are implying that if there were around 132 random people from the USA, you should know at least one, otherwise its not random??

Not sure where you got that number from. I believe the official number of Covid cases in America is 2,690,000. Not 132. And the latest narrative is that is may be ten times that number

Four plus months into a deadly pandemic due to a super infectious virus that is infecting so many people that we had to shut down the economy and we get 24/7 media saturation coverage, one might expect to see actual signs of it in real life. We are told nearly one in every one thousand Americans, perhaps as many as one in every hundred, has been infected.

Don't you think? You ever study stats and probabilities?

Giles, I'm not asking you to provide personal information, but approximately where do you live? I live in an area that has been middle of the pack in terms of cases and I personally know 5 people who've had Covid. I absolutely agree with you regarding the media coverage being misleading. It's important to clarify that if a state sees 500 new cases per day, and 200 of them are in nursing homes and 100 are in prisons, that does not pose as huge of a risk to the general public as if all 500 cases were people who are roaming about freely.

jamin wrote:

Can someone explain to me how this works? If there have been 2.5 million diagnosed cases in first 6 months then how do you end up with over 160 million in next 6 months? We'd have to accelerate to close to 1 million cases per day.

Editor's note: The clip comes between 1:10 and 1:25

https://youtu.be/JGYIqa-ui5U

It sounds like he’s banking on the fact that we’ll have the capacity to test that many people by then. Given that we develop the capacity, you bet your arse, come he’ll or high water his prediction will be spot on

Bad Wigins wrote:

The science left this behind more than a month ago.

This is fear porn. This took off in the United States because half its populace regularly pleasures itself to disasters and hysterics. Watch them confirm that with their replies to this post - they're not serious, just out for kicks. That and the political angle - they want to win elections and believe this and riots are their only chance.

LOL. Honey, you're the LAST person I'd listen to for advice.

What a coincidence. Nobody listens to you either, honey. Haha hahhah what a trite petty sophomoric ignoramous

I live in a suburb of Boston that was said to be the second "hottest" town (not city) in the state. Not only do I not know anyone personally that has had Covid, nobody I know does. Lots of a brother in law of a friend I used to work with connections.

You know five people who got sick with this? Nursing home folks?