Scott Gottlieb says half of the U.S. will have had COVID-19 by the end of 2020

Exponential growth and/or the logical belief that there are way more cases than positive tests.

Tree Jerky wrote:

Exponential growth and/or the logical belief that there are way more cases than positive tests.

I guess it's a non-falsifiable hypothesis then?

Scott's on it...its worse than you think . to hell with your needed Burger and beer at your local establishment..... stay safe stay home

hospitals will be overwhelmed in some states by the end of July barring they shut back down. I predict Florida, Texas, Arizona, and parts of California experience this.

well the latest projections show:

82 million by Oct 1

..or 8.3 million of everyone wore a mask.

So Scott is just predicting people are pretty dumb.

I predict after the whole White Power thing a few less people will do dumb things just to try to show allegiance to Trump...like not wearing a mask. So maybe only 81 million by October?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

..or 8.3 million if everyone wore a mask.

fixed

jamin wrote:

Can someone explain to me how this works? If there have been 2.5 million diagnosed cases in first 6 months then how do you end up with over 160 million in next 6 months? We'd have to accelerate to close to 1 million cases per day.

https://youtu.be/JGYIqa-ui5U

Explaining how this works to you is a zero sum game.

Isn't it viral load that determines the severity of the infection? Is it possible that the virus might become widespread but in such relatively minuscule quantity that we all gradually develop antibodies for it with only a few experience symptoms?

jamin wrote:

Tree Jerky wrote:

Exponential growth and/or the logical belief that there are way more cases than positive tests.

I guess it's a non-falsifiable hypothesis then?

Why wouldn't those be falsifiable?

The first one: exponential growth. Given time and testing, we can track the growth and see if it fits an exponential curve. If it doesnt, the hypothesis is false. Pretty straight forward.

Second hypothesis: way more cases than positive tests. Simply test a lot more, or do random sample testing, or do some sort of antibody test later. Also really pretty easy to test the hypothesis. This one seems pretty straight forward as well.

Look at antibody studies. Many have been done. It varies from place to place. 20% have IgG antibodies in NYC. Here in AZ is closer to 3%, maybe as high as 5% now. Most of the country is in the 3 to 5 percent range.

From these studies and current infection trends somewhere between 10 and 20 million Americans have been infected so far. It's tough to give an exact number due to data limitations.

runnerdnerd wrote:

jamin wrote:

I guess it's a non-falsifiable hypothesis then?

Why wouldn't those be falsifiable?

The first one: exponential growth. Given time and testing, we can track the growth and see if it fits an exponential curve. If it doesnt, the hypothesis is false. Pretty straight forward.

Second hypothesis: way more cases than positive tests. Simply test a lot more, or do random sample testing, or do some sort of antibody test later. Also really pretty easy to test the hypothesis. This one seems pretty straight forward as well.

The science left this behind more than a month ago.

1) "exponential growth" is a meaningless buzzphrase being thrown around rhetorically by people who don't fully grasp what it means mathematically. Mostly they are pointing at a cherry-picked upward-trending graph and claiming it will keep trending upward faster forever. That can't happen; in fact, rate of spread is inherently self-limiting because R number immediately starts to decline as the infected population increases.

But, setting that aside, you can't "track the growth" unless you have enough, and sensitive enough, testing. That's impossible because PCR tests aren't sensitive enough, and they'd have to test the entire population in only a couple week's time anyhow, since it can only find active or recent infections.

2) Antibody tests have low sensitivity too. Turns out only about 1 in 5 infected people even develops the serum antibodies detected by the tests. This is great news nobody wants to hear, because it amplifies further the unwelcome message that yes, this is "just the flu" after all, something very widespread that kills a very small proportion of those who catch it. But what it also means is that nobody really knows how many cases there are or have been right now, or will be at the end of 2020. But it's obvious at this point that it's too widespread to be controllable. It will run its course - and what is the sense in delaying that until next flu season when it's more likely to kill people than right now?

This is fear porn. This took off in the United States because half its populace regularly pleasures itself to disasters and hysterics. Watch them confirm that with their replies to this post - they're not serious, just out for kicks. That and the political angle - they want to win elections and believe this and riots are their only chance.

Bad Wigins wrote:...they want to win elections and believe this and riots are their only chance.

I guess that's what it comes down to for the lowest common denominator in the US, the idea that the world colluded to create a false pandemic to influence the US election. People are dying everywhere to get Trump out of office.

What a singularly stupid idea, by the stupidest poster on LRC (which is saying something), ironically (? perhaps not) on the day the US reaches 2600 THOUSAND cases (the jhu site has the US at 2,590,582 as I type...).

Bravo, wiggy girl, bravo. Grand entertainment.

interested reader wrote:...the day the US reaches 2600 THOUSAND cases (the jhu site has the US at 2,590,582 as I type...).

I just want to marvel about this a little more, the breathtaking stupidiy. It's a "bad" prediction to be off by, say, a factor of 2, ut let's set the bar for "bad" at a factor of ten, or one order of magnitude.

Wiggy's confident prediction, for no more than 2600 cases, was off by not one, not two, but THREE (and counting) orders of magnitude.

Let that wash over you. Contemplate the broader meaning. Imagine, a world free of such dunces and simpletons.

A virus has the ability to spread with exponential growth.

It's not rocket science. But our problem is that we don't believe in experts anymore. People just make up stuff and think the virus goes away in the summer month with the heat.

Kind of funny that this didn't work in Florida.

2600 Club wrote:

well the latest projections show:

82 million by Oct 1

..or 8.3 million of everyone wore a mask.

So Scott is just predicting people are pretty dumb.

I predict after the whole White Power thing a few less people will do dumb things just to try to show allegiance to Trump...like not wearing a mask. So maybe only 81 million by October?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Four plus months in....still don't know a soul who has been sick with this nor heard of any of the "celebs" they have told us have died from it.

Be afraid. Do what you are told. Question nothing. The elites are looking out for us

interested reader wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:...they want to win elections and believe this and riots are their only chance.

I guess that's what it comes down to for the lowest common denominator in the US, the idea that the world colluded to create a false pandemic to influence the US election. People are dying everywhere to get Trump out of office.

What a singularly stupid idea, by the stupidest poster on LRC (which is saying something), ironically (? perhaps not) on the day the US reaches 2600 THOUSAND cases (the jhu site has the US at 2,590,582 as I type...).

Bravo, wiggy girl, bravo. Grand entertainment.

You aren’t nearly as smart as you obviously think you are. Anyhow, I doubt he ever said it was a “false pandemic”. It’s a real pandemic, vastly hyped to sow fear among the masses.

Meanwhile, your kind continue to frighten little kids and destroy their quality of life and put their parents out of work over something that turns out to be fairly harmless to most people.

sowers of fear and hate wrote:.. I doubt he ever said it was a “false pandemic”.

Oh, I'm quite sure she did. Along with GC, Allenwhatever, dunce runner.

WE will all be dead withing 2 weeks if we don't wear our masks

Bad Wigins wrote:

How can you even think to click and post on a COVID thread without being severely embarrassed?

You’ve made a fool of yourself. Take a break from it.