Bold Prediction: Rupp Takes Tokyo Gold

Rupp has a fast enough track background to be in the same class as any other marathoner as far as talent, and he is good at doing all the little things and avoiding distractions. That should help him vs others with how turbulent the world of running has been lately.

However I don’t think Rupp stands much of a chance at winning if Kipchoge is on the starting line. Beating Kipchoge and beating everyone else are two very different matters.

If Africans boycott the games, then he has a chance.

Won't be any Olympics next year anyway Mon-Ami.

hardly workin wrote:

Of the three favorites (Kipchoge, Bekele, Rupp)

Lol.

One of the potential favorites in Kamworor suffered a tragic blow this week—let’s hope he can make it back to top form.

Lelisa Desisa, Lawrence Cherono, Birhanu Legese and Geremew would all clearly be favored over Rupp.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

hardly workin wrote:

Of the three favorites (Kipchoge, Bekele, Rupp)

Lol.

One of the potential favorites in Kamworor suffered a tragic blow this week—let’s hope he can make it back to top form.

Lelisa Desisa, Lawrence Cherono, Birhanu Legese and Geremew would all clearly be favored over Rupp.

Yep, in what world is Rupp a top three favorite for the Olympic Marathon? Sure, he COULD medal (he's done so before), but he's not a favorite to medal by a fair bit, I'd say. Is Farah still planning on running it, or did he permanently stop running marathons? Because I'd put my money on Farah over Rupp probably.

hardly workin wrote:

Bold Prediction: Rupp Takes Tokyo Gold

Unless "Tokyo Gold" is the name of a new designer PED, you've been smoking too much Panama Red!

That maybe true but it didn’t stop him last time. Everyone was saying the Atlanta course was ~3:00 slow. For Galen that would’ve mean he would’ve ran damn close to his PR. He also didn’t really push the race that much and definitely could have ran faster, but he didn’t. Him and Mike Smith have said that he wasn’t 100% going into that race either.

With a guy like Galen, times don’t mean much. His American records were certainly made for getting every last millisecond out of him, but recently we’ve yet to see him push himself to his limit. His current marathon PR being 2:06:07, I think he should be considered more of a 2:05 low or 2:04 high guy rather than a 2:06 low guy.

And in Olympic marathoning, they’re usually decent tactical. In 2016, Rupp got bronze after running the 10k and getting 5th place in 27:08. That 10k time itself is impressive enough. I think without running the 10k he might have been able to kick down Lilesa for silver, if not, it would’ve been very close.

We know Rupp has speed. If under Mike Smith his training is consistent and improving, I could 100% see Rupp being with Kipchoge and Bekele the last couple miles. The question is if he will be able to make a decisive enough move to split them. The only issue is that we’re talking about kicking down the world record holder in the 5000 and 10000 and second fastest marathon runner ever, and the marathon world record holder. That could be a kick for the ages.

Someone else mentioned Mo Farah. It will be interesting to see if Galen and Mo run the race together. I don’t know if they’re still on good terms or anything, but it could be some advantage to them both.

The chances of there being a Summer Olympics in 2021 are slim. I do think Rupp has a chance at gold ... if he shows up alone and managed to complete the course with no East African in sight.

Who will he take it from? From another person in the Olympic Village?