DC Wonk wrote:Second, I think Cheptegei has a good shot at breaking the record. He's confident, and has probably been training for this since his road 5k record. Monaco is the right track.
I originally had quoted this to disagree and say that he was nowhere near Bekele's level when Bekele set those WRs, but when I looked at Bekele's resume at the time he broke the record, it's not that different than Cheptegei's. Both were World XC champions (although Bekele had the supreme mix of 4K and 12K speed that allowed him to win both short and long course).
Before he set the records, Bekele had run 7:30i, 12:49i, and 26:49. Cheptegei has ran 7:33, 12:57 (track), 12:51 (road) and 26:48. I guess it just remains to be seen if he can make the jump. One thing that should be mentioned is that Bekeled closed the 2003 WC 10,000m in 12:57 before he set the records--that's Cheptegei's 5000m PR right now. Not sure he can make the jump to Haile/Kenny B levels but we'll see.
Bekele went 2:33, 2:32, 2:32, 2:30, 2:29. That's about as good as you can do it. He did have to do it alone from 2K onward so there's a chance if Cheptegei has someone to drag him to 3500 or 4000 he would have a shot. Definitely not a good one.