HS Junior John Lester runs 1:48.93 negative split (June 27)

younger man wrote:

The high school indoor 800 record went on to be the NCAA champ. Most 800 specialists have improved greatly in college. You are not only incorrect, the opposite is true.

I don't agree. And I am not wrong.

Brandon McGorty, Sean McGorty's brother, ran a 1:48 in highschool. Never broke 1:50 again in his labored and erratic college career.

Blake Yount, the Colorado state highschool record holder, never managed to dip into the 1:40's after running a highschool best of 1:50.

If you check the school record list of a very successful legacy track highschool in Texas called Lewisville Flower mound, you'll see that each of their top 10 in the 800m (the fastest of which is a 1:52, followed by a string of 1:55-1:56/7's) maximized their potential in highschool. Not a single one improved after.

Now, this didn't take alot of research. I just pulled these names out of dozens that I can't recall at the moment. That attests to the vast number of highschool 800 specialists who actually bust. You only cited ONE example.

What I am not saying is that they cannot improve in other longer events, only that 800m speed is peaked in highschool very easily and most promising preps will have run very close to their PRs. I am also not saying that there aren't exceptions.

That's extremely generous when he's run 1:48 twice, and it's equivalent to suggesting that Rudisha could've potentially run 1:39 just because he's run a 1:40.91.

1:48 may be Lester's ceiling.

hansen9952 wrote:

You only cited ONE example.

What I am not saying is that they cannot improve in other longer events, only that 800m speed is peaked in highschool very easily and most promising preps will have run very close to their PRs. I am also not saying that there aren't exceptions.

There are a lot of people who dont improve post high school in every event, or only slightly improve, it isnt unique to the 800m.

German fernandez

Slagowski

Verzbikas (ok, that might be because of his bike accident)

Cain

The high school 60m record holder

High school shotput record holder

I dont disagree with you that the 800 probably takes less time to maximize. It's an event that you see more 18 to 20 year olds at their peak. My theory is it is because of the combination of aerobic and anaerobic that it is comprised of. It certainly isnt unusual for sprinters to peak at 18 to 20, so I think some 800m runners peak at this age too, because they dont get any more speed, and improving their aerobic base isnt as beneficial in this event. As you said, there are of course still individuals reaching their max potential 6 to 10 years after high school.

Anyway, the kid this thread is about is a high school junior who started running as a sophomore. So it seems likely he will improve, simply due to some beginner gains he has left, if nothing else.

But I think we can just appreciate a fast time, no sense getting hung up on speculation.

hansen9952 wrote:

This guy will probably bust in college. Most highschool phenoms in the 800 do. Almost every single 1:49/1:50 guy that I've seen has not improved in college at all or will improve by .1 seconds only. Donavan Brazier is the only 800 specialist I've seen improve by bounds after highschool.

I feel personally attacked by this comment

What about all the 2 mile specialists that are busts. For example here are the top 3 2 milers of all time

Lukas Verzbicas -> did nothing in college

German Fernandez -> Had 1 good year and then did nothing

Jeff Nelson -> pretty much nothing

The 1500m list is like 50/50 (i.e. for every Jim ryun their is a Tim Danielson).

The top 10 800m list is

1:46.45 Michael Granville (Bell Gardens, California) 1996

1:46.58 George Kersh (Pearl, Mississippi) 1987

1:47.31 Pete Richardson (Berkeley, California) 1981

1:47.55 Donavan Brazier (Kenowa Hills, Grand Rapids, Michigan) 2015

1:47.59 Cameron Cooper (Oak Park Michigan) 2017

1:47.67 Carlton Orange (University, Memphis, Tennessee) 2015

1:47.67i Josh Hoey (Shanahan, Downingtown, Pennsylvania) 2018

1:47.68 *Elijah Greer (Lake Oswego, Oregon) 2008

1:47.74 Alan Webb (South Lakes, Reston, Virginia)

1:47.79 Andrés Arroyo’ (Colonial, Orlando, Florida)

Kersh did OK for himself. Brazier has done fine. Webb has done fine. A couple are sort still early on (Hoey, cooper and orange). And a yes a few are busts.

You would really need to look a bit deeper (say top 50) to figure out what the trends are but in pretty much every event there is a lot of burnout or people that just never take that next step.

A lot of runners don't improve. Some of them 800 m runners. A lot do. Some of them 800 m runners. 4 of the top 8 finishers in the 2019 NCAA mens 800 m race (including Hoppel) had improved over 3 seconds from their HS best to 1:47 or better. Recall you first said you could only think of one (Brazier).

Maybe you're right, but from anecdotal experience I've witnessed a greater proportion of 800m runners cease to improve versus, say, the mile or two mile. It seems like every other day that I come across a fast and promising highschool half-miler who, when researching their whereabouts, didn't really amount to what their times had suggested. It's not like I EXPECT every single low 1:5x phenom to eventually run at least a 1:49 or slightly better, or a high 1:4x guy to run a 1:46 or better, but it should be the case if the improvement curve is relevant at all. Most college guys should expect to improve at least a couple of seconds. People who do peak in highschool could also have been facing alot of pressure to perform well though. The 800m is very popular in highschool.

Sorry, I didn't mean literally only Brazier, rather, I was pointing generally to the rare exceptions.

I really appreciate this answer. Agree with your analysis

hansen9952 wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

A lot of runners don't improve. Some of them 800 m runners. A lot do. Some of them 800 m runners. 4 of the top 8 finishers in the 2019 NCAA mens 800 m race (including Hoppel) had improved over 3 seconds from their HS best to 1:47 or better. Recall you first said you could only think of one (Brazier).

Sorry, I didn't mean literally only Brazier, rather, I was pointing generally to the rare exceptions.

Also, how would you explain the top 10 of Flower mound (maybe even more, since I didn't bother to look up any more of their names) that I cited. I looked at their college stats. No improvement at all. Surely at least one would've gone on to faster times.

This does pose a question which is incredibly difficult to answer in the 800 in particular.

How fast could an athlete go in the perfect race given their splits in another race?

In this particular race my instinct would say 1:47.5 or so.

But how do you calculate it objectively? If an athlete ran 60 then 54 for example?

Or even in big positive splits such as 51 then 58, where the athlete went out slightly too fast and then died?

Are there any formula or rules of thumb out there?

Where do you think all of the 1:45 and 1:46 and 1:47 guys come from in the NCAA? A few are foreigners but the rest all improved after high school. I thought you were focused on the elite guys, not a bunch of 1:52 or 1:55 guys. Who cares about them? Here are a few guys who ran fast in high school but ran much faster after. There are hundreds of them.

Dixon

Hoppel

Jewett

Roomes

Manternach

Nixon

Brazier

Rhoads

Orange

Greer

Arroyo

Mudd

Lilly

Andrews

Sowinski

hansen9952 wrote:

Also, how would you explain the top 10 of Flower mound (maybe even more, since I didn't bother to look up any more of their names) that I cited. I looked at their college stats. No improvement at all. Surely at least one would've gone on to faster times.

Yes, one would think at least one would have improved. Leads me to question what they are doing at that school. Presumably at least some went to a college with a decent coach.

ex-runner wrote:

This does pose a question which is incredibly difficult to answer in the 800 in particular.

How fast could an athlete go in the perfect race given their splits in another race?

In this particular race my instinct would say 1:47.5 or so.

But how do you calculate it objectively? If an athlete ran 60 then 54 for example?

Or even in big positive splits such as 51 then 58, where the athlete went out slightly too fast and then died?

Are there any formula or rules of thumb out there?

Stats Gangsta’s lap optimizer is often talked about on these forums, but it only goes down to 1000m.

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

What about all the 2 mile specialists that are busts. For example here are the top 3 2 milers of all time

Lukas Verzbicas -> did nothing in college

German Fernandez -> Had 1 good year and then did nothing

Jeff Nelson -> pretty much nothing.

Well, all three of these were taken out by injuries. Bad training, bad coaching, bad luck, whatever it is. We all know about Fernandez and Verzbicas, but Oregon was the wrong place for Nelson.

Anyway, this thread is about John Lester. I don't know anything about his background, but I'd say just with years of aerobic improvement alone he could run faster. Anyway, he's only a junior. Let's see what happens and then bemoan his soon-to-be-burnout.

Why don’t we all just...

Wish the best for this talented young man? Instead of needlessly bringing in pessimistic future stuff. Can ANY one performance ever live in the moment???

1 guy is pesimistic.. There are about 6 of us arguing with him about it. I will include you also in the camp that most 800 guys will improve and Lester is the best one of them.

younger man wrote:

1 guy is pesimistic.. There are about 6 of us arguing with him about it. I will include you also in the camp that most 800 guys will improve and Lester is the best one of them.

It would be interesting to get real data, there is probably enough data available to make some semi meaningful conclusions.

For example, if you look at every 1:50 high school kid, what percentage went on to run 1:45? I'd guess maybe 5%? Then what percentage of 1:53 kids went on to run 1:45? 1%?

But using my made up numbers, what if there are 10 1:50 high schoolers in any graduating class and 100 1:53 guys? With the percentage of 1:45 guys who ran 1:53 in high school versus 1:50 would be still 2:1 in favor of the 1:53 crowd. At a glance, if we only look at 1:45 guys, it makes it seem advantageous to have run 1:53 in high school compared to 1:50. But the reality is that any individual 1:50 kid is still more likely to become and elite 800m runner than any one 1:53 kid.

I'd be curious how the real numbers play out. This seems like a task for one of our competent resident number scrapers. Take high school results from say 2005 to 2015, compare them against elite results from 2005 to 2020.

My point is, I'd be shocked if the data suggests there is a point where you become "too fast." I suspect it's more likely that we feel this way only from anecdotal evidence: i.e., we just dont notice all those 1:53 kids who fail to go on to greatness.

The trouble with the data would be getting enough data at the fastest end, since it obviously is a bell curve.

....Tried it myself.

Add:

Ricky Faure, WY, 1:48.14 in HS

Only got near it once (1:48.47 as a Freshman) and could only manage 1:54.xx by his senior year