Predict my marathon time

you are probably in a 2h35-2'40 potential shape right now.

The question is are you going to improve on 10k and half during the marathon training, in which case you could target around 2h30, or plateau in shorter distances and only develop the ability the run the marathon to the actual potential.

Hard to know but the better you become, the harder it is to keep on improving.

I would train for 2h35 and do some 10ks and half 1-2month before the marathon and adjust the specific M pace if improvement.

I think 1h12'00 in the half could lead to 2h30 one or two month later.

Thank you, that's quite interesting. I'm pretty sure I made a huge leap forward compared to last year, but I'm wondering how big (so I can train more precisely). I guess the only way to really find out is running the entire thing.

I will say that I ran my time trials off of marathon training, with very little anaerobic training.

I was thinking the same: training for 2:35, and doing some races that give an indication of my shape so I can adjust in either direction. My plan is to get to 2:30 for a spring marathon, and use the fall marathon as a stepping stone.

Will you "upgrade" to the Alpha Fly?

Were you wearing compression socks in your last TTs? And will you wear them on race day?

Rojo or Wejo?

the important questions wrote:

Will you "upgrade" to the Alpha Fly?

Maybe, if I can get my hands on a pair. I would like to use them next year to run 2:30. I can't even get new Next%s here in Germany at the moment.

Were you wearing compression socks in your last TTs? And will you wear them on race day?

No, I used to race in them a few years back but didn't feel like they made much a difference. I'll give a try for a longer run sometime soon again, great idea!

Rojo or Wejo?

Jonathan Gault?

Nice thread - I'm in a similar camp as you so interested to follow along on your journey.

runnerchef wrote:

Nice thread - I'm in a similar camp as you so interested to follow along on your journey.

Awesome! Tell me more :). What plan are you following? Are you trying to get to 2:35 or 2:30 straight away?

I'll use this thread as my training log, for those interested. I recall there was a 2:30 thread, but can't seem to find it...

Last weekend I did a fasted run on a course with a bunch of smaller but steep hills. I ran 4:14/km (6:48/mi) for 30k, at under 160bpm (marathon hr is 170-185bpm). This weekend I have 26k with 13k @ MP, should be fun! The rest of this week is all aerobic running and a strength session. I really hope there'll be a race in October, it seems like things are opening up here in Germany but nothing is concrete yet.

I looked at Magdeburg to do,small enough to go ahead I think.October 25th

I was a 2:48 marathoner (in the horrific conditions at 2018 Boston) and 1:15 half guy until last year when I started to do longer tempos. I was able to get down to 1:10 in the half, that was about a month before my 3rd marathon where I ran high 2:31. Also ran a 32:48 road 10k 9 days before.

You can most likely get down to 2:35 range with a good training cycle. Consistency is key but always listen to your body. Most marathoners struggle with this. Yes it is okay to be fatigued after a hard workout for a few days but if you see yourself going backwards, I'd reevaluate training.

My best piece of advice would be to hire a coach that has experience with putting together marathon training plans. That is how I went from 2:48 to 2:31 in just one race. Happy training!

Good running.

To be honest I think I'm similar to you (aged 33 - 33.58 10k, 1.13.28 HM, 2.43.18 Tough marathon) so interested in replies more then I can give advice.

I think though 2.30 with consistency and following a training plan is achievable (I say that as that's my ultimate aim for a Spring 2021 marathon. I recon a 1.11 HM would be target which would bring confidence for sub 2.30.

iceland takeover wrote:

I looked at Magdeburg to do,small enough to go ahead I think.October 25th

Oh, interesting! I might actually sign up for it. I'm already signed up for 2 October marathons, hoping that at least one will happen. One of them is Rotterdam, which I'd prefer to run because it's just about the running. When running a smaller marathon in under 2:40 there's a decent chance of winning it, which actually sounds very distracting to me. I'd much rather be a hobby jogger and run a PR somewhere in a pack than at the very front with all the attention/pressure.

northernmi.runner wrote:

I was a 2:48 marathoner (in the horrific conditions at 2018 Boston) and 1:15 half guy until last year when I started to do longer tempos. I was able to get down to 1:10 in the half, that was about a month before my 3rd marathon where I ran high 2:31. Also ran a 32:48 road 10k 9 days before.

You can most likely get down to 2:35 range with a good training cycle. Consistency is key but always listen to your body. Most marathoners struggle with this. Yes it is okay to be fatigued after a hard workout for a few days but if you see yourself going backwards, I'd reevaluate training.

My best piece of advice would be to hire a coach that has experience with putting together marathon training plans. That is how I went from 2:48 to 2:31 in just one race. Happy training!

Great advice. I am working with a coach but running-wise we are just doing slightly modified versions of Pfitzinger (some intervals added). Anything you did differently in that training cycle? What was your mileage and what / how often were your key workouts? When you say longer tempos, how long/fast did you do them?

Another update: had two good training weeks of 140 and 144k (86/89 mi). I did a 30k with 12k @ ultimate goal MP (3:33/km). Either my GPS has issues or I was running very inconsistent km splits. It felt pretty consistent and fast, so hoping it's a GPS issue. Doesn't matter too much at this stage yet. Also put in a threshold run two days after that and it was saying I was running 4:15/km or so -- I was definitely a lot faster.

Today I did a 30k long run without MP sections, just cruising along with the final 10k just slower than 4:00/km, felt very good. After two weeks of more than 140k, I still feel fresh and not tired. But there's still 16 weeks to go, so plenty of time for that ;).

I signed up for the Magdeburg marathon (as per the suggestion above), hopefully it'll take place! It has a limit of 5000 ppl, so I'm guessing the chances are much higher than with a big event.

I was around 70-90 miles per week. Averaged between 80-85 most commonly. By longer tempos I would do broken tempos. For example, 5 by 10 minute tempos at HM pace with some jog rest between. Or in a long run maybe warm up a few miles, then 20 minute tempo, run a few more easy miles, then 15 minute tempo and so on. Remember to vary the surfaces you run on, I like to switch between soft surfaces and hard either during a run or between daily runs. Softer surfaces will be easier on joints and tendons but harder on muscles and vice versa. Good luck!

Find your Pulse Price=75%HRmax running by 1 hour X avg heart rate pulse at this pace = Avg heart rate at your Marathon X Marathon pace, from there MPace=Pulse Price divide by avg heart rate at your marathon. Very simple.