is JAKOB INGEBRIGTSEN going to break the mile/3k/5k world records in his career?

jamin wrote:

I say no. The Ingebrigstens are milers physiologically: their body morphology and times indicate this. Sure, as we all know and have seen, strength-based milers can hop in a fast 5k race and be dragged to 13-flat.

This.

He is big for a 5000m runner and his lack of stamina show that he is not a 5 000m runner first. He is someone that has been outckicked twice last year in the 5000m and finished iin 13:02 both times.

The fastest race of the two (Doha) he died in the final straight and could have finished way further. He exploded completely.

if you're a doped-and-rigged-sen you can do anything

Ok let me try to rephrase my point. The fastest non African has run 12.54, that’s 17 seconds slower than the world record. The 12.54 was run 23 years ago. And really, no European has come close to it. In Oceania, Mottram is the only one who has broke 13 minutes at 12.55. In the Americas, Solinsky ran 12:55 and destroyed his body doing so. I want Jakob to run fast, it’s really cool to see great runners from countries that aren’t known for running. But no not African has run under 12.54 EVER and to say that Jakob will run under 12.37 is hard to believe. Again, it would be really cool, but I think very unrealistic.

The same can be said for 1500/3k. Only one non African has run under 7.30 I believe, and very few have run under 3.30. Its just hard to believe Jakob will run more than 4 seconds faster over 1500 and run 9ish seconds faster than any other non African over 3000

Yes what I meant is that in the 5000 you have some outstanding young athletes like Barega and Kejelcha. But in the 1500 all those guys will retire soon, leaving a few years gap for Jakob.

cheesewiz wrote:

it’s really cool to see great runners from countries that aren’t known for running.

norway had a female 5000 m wr holder and have great aerobic history elsewhere and the highest average vo2 max as a population or sth like that

khorrps wrote:

cheesewiz wrote:

it’s really cool to see great runners from countries that aren’t known for running.

norway had a female 5000 m wr holder and have great aerobic history elsewhere and the highest average vo2 max as a population or sth like that

Yes, the Norwegian mid/long distance GOATS remain Grete Waitz & Ingrid Kristiansen by a long shot.

Current projections indicate J. Ingebrigtsen will run 3:28.6/12:50/26:56/59:38 in his career...updating...every...second...

khorrps wrote:

cheesewiz wrote:

it’s really cool to see great runners from countries that aren’t known for running.

norway had a female 5000 m wr holder and have great aerobic history elsewhere and the highest average vo2 max as a population or sth like that

male 1000m + female 3000m, 5000m, 10000m, half marathon and marathon wr holder

jamin wrote:

I say no. The Ingebrigstens are milers physiologically: their body morphology and times indicate this. Sure, as we all know and have seen, strength-based milers can hop in a fast 5k race and be dragged to 13-flat.

No, that's complete non-sense.

The runners who best resemble Jakob are Mottram and Solinsky (both were a bit taller, but they were just as robust as Jakob if not more). Both of them were 5k/10k specialists.

Jakob does not look like El Guerrouj, or Seb Coe, etc at all. He also doesn't have anything close to the 400m speed of these guys, or 100m speed, or 800m ability, etc. If Jakob says 5k is his best distance right now and HM in the long-term, I fully agree with him.

What matters more than body size/looks is 400m speed and lactate tolerance in the 1500.

LateRunnerPhil wrote:

jamin wrote:

I say no. The Ingebrigstens are milers physiologically: their body morphology and times indicate this. Sure, as we all know and have seen, strength-based milers can hop in a fast 5k race and be dragged to 13-flat.

No, that's complete non-sense.

The runners who best resemble Jakob are Mottram and Solinsky (both were a bit taller, but they were just as robust as Jakob if not more). Both of them were 5k/10k specialists.

Jakob does not look like El Guerrouj, or Seb Coe, etc at all. He also doesn't have anything close to the 400m speed of these guys, or 100m speed, or 800m ability, etc. If Jakob says 5k is his best distance right now and HM in the long-term, I fully agree with him.

What matters more than body size/looks is 400m speed and lactate tolerance in the 1500.

What matter most in a 5k is the ability to kick after running 4600m.

And compared to el Guerrouj, Ingebrigtsen looks much weaker than the moroccon at that and also much weaker than someone like Lagat.

Talking about "world record potential" for a guy who has not even break 13:00 yet is a joke. Wake me up when he run sub 12:50 and even then he would be very far off.

Yes Norway has had great runners, but it isn’t a running country, and if I asked what countries immediately come to mind as countries known for running the answers would probably be Ethiopia and Kenya

Phil

Mottram was NOT a 10000m specialist. Not at all. This was not an intelligent comment on your part.

LateRunnerPhil wrote:

jamin wrote:

I say no. The Ingebrigstens are milers physiologically: their body morphology and times indicate this. Sure, as we all know and have seen, strength-based milers can hop in a fast 5k race and be dragged to 13-flat.

No, that's complete non-sense.

The runners who best resemble Jakob are Mottram and Solinsky (both were a bit taller, but they were just as robust as Jakob if not more). Both of them were 5k/10k specialists.

Jakob does not look like El Guerrouj, or Seb Coe, etc at all. He also doesn't have anything close to the 400m speed of these guys, or 100m speed, or 800m ability, etc. If Jakob says 5k is his best distance right now and HM in the long-term, I fully agree with him.

What matters more than body size/looks is 400m speed and lactate tolerance in the 1500.

What matter most in a 5k is the ability to kick after running 4600m.

And compared to el Guerrouj, Ingebrigtsen looks much weaker than the moroccon at that and also much weaker than someone like Lagat.

Talking about "world record potential" for a guy who has not even break 13:00 yet is a joke. Wake me up when he run sub 12:50 and even then he would be very far off.

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I think that your opinion is based on very poor research.

In DL London 2019 Jakob in his very first fast 5000m race (with pacemakers) ran the last 400m in 53 and the last 200m in 26. I think this is close to Bekele´s best performances when Bekele was dominant in the 5000m.

At OL 2004 in the 5000m final - where El-Guerrouj outsprinted Bekele and Kipchoge - last lap was run just under 53 so Jakob´s DL London performance at 18 was just a bit slower. But the 2004 final was won 13:14.40 so which overall performance was the better?

In london 2019 Jakob outsprinted the current toprunners Kimeli, Mcsweyn, Butchart, Rhonex Kipruto and Crippa with 3.46, 3.61, 4.20, 5.38 and 5.82 seconds respectively over the last 600m which went in 1:23.

Comparison to El-Guerrouj and Bernhard Lagat:

Jakob is MUCH faster at age 17 and 18 than the two were both on the 1500m and the 5000m!

E-G ran the 1500m in 3:33.61 at 19; Jakob 3:30.18 at 18. E-G 5000m 13:46.79 at 17; Jakob at the same age 13:17.

Lagat ran the 1500m in 3:37.7 at 21; Jakob ran 3:30.18 at 18. Lagat 5000m in 13:50.33 at 22.

Jakob 13:02.03 at 18!

Kenenisa Bekele ran 13:20.57 at 17 and 13:13.33 at 18.

Haile Gebrselassie ran 13:36.06 at 19 and 13:03.17 at 20.

On these pages several people have stated that Jakob could have run 12:55 or even faster in DL London if the pace had been more even. I agree with this.

I might have to wake you up later this season if there will be a fast well paced 5000m.

Outherwise we must judge out from a fast 3000m (DL´s new long distance).

It is so funny to see all the people who agree that Jakob Has no finishing speed in the 1500m since it is probably mostly the same people who consider Centro an excellent finisher!

Hello! Talk about biased minds!

As far as I can see Centro and Jakob have competed in 7 races and Centro is down 0 to 7!

Starting with the 1500 m in Palo Alto 2018 where a 17 years old Jakob outsprinted Centro with 1.68 sec over the last 200m (also beating Paul Chelimo with 1.10 sec, Engels with 1.40 and Fisher with 2.18).

Sometimes Centro has been close - sometimes longer back. I think that Centro should be considered to have taken a big scalp if he now - in his career´s "autumn" - should succeed to beat Jakob.

I AGREE THAT CENTRO IS A GREAT FINISHER WHO HAS DONE VERY WELL AT WCs AND ESPECIALLY AT OL 2016!

And why do people evaluate Jakob`s speed now as it is unchangeable?

Do the same people consider the very talented Matt Boling a finished product? Matt is some months older than Jakob.

When did Usain Bolt peak? At 18? No Bolt peaked just before his 23th birthday when he set the current WR´s in the 100m and 200m (even though he was already VERY fast at 18).

Most sprinters peak later. Justin Gatlin (hm, hm) much later.

Why should 18 years old Jakob not be able to improve his speed as he physically matures as amost all other toprunners (sprinters, middle distance and long distance) have done?

Help

My opinion is based on excellent research.

You are stating that Jakob last lap in London was similar to Bekele's last lap, but you are not taking account context.

Jakob last lap was 53.70 in a 13:02 race and a 2:26:00 last km. This is impressive, but not impressive for Bekele.

If you take Bekele 2008:

He ended the race with a 53.82 lap, but the race was much faster, 12:57, the last km was faster 2:25:30 and he has run the last two km of the race in 4:56, which is absolutely unbelievable after running 3000m while Ingebrigsten best record of 2 000 is just 4:50.

If you take Bekele 2009:

He ended with a 53.70 lap. The race was slower, 13:14, but the last km was significantly faster 2:24:88.

Here is a video of Bekele dropping a 53.02 second last lap in a 12:48 race.

As for El Guerrouj, his last lap was sub 53 in 2004 in a faster last km, and the one he lost in 2003 the last km was in 2:24 which is also much better and in a faster race.

The performance of Jakob is nothing special, it is very good, but nothing extraordinary.

You want to see what happen to Jakob when he is in a sub 13:00 race with a 2:24:94 last km? That's Doha 2019, he completely implodes and finish with a dive to save a 5th place because he can barely run.

His London 2019 performance was good but was the perfect situation for him. A moderately fast paced race with rabbits and then Kipruto who take the rythm. And the lack of competition. The only other top 5000m runner of the race with a kick beat him.

The only thing that Jakob has is his age. Wanjiru ran 26:41 at 10 000m at 18, Barega ran 12:43 at 18. Jakob is very good for his age but not even the best we have seen. And generally people who peak early don't progress much after.

Alfred de Musset wrote:

The only thing that Jakob has is his age. Wanjiru ran 26:41 at 10 000m at 18, Barega ran 12:43 at 18. Jakob is very good for his age but not even the best we have seen. And generally people who peak early don't progress much after.

I would also say that what Jakob has is his real age.

Also that the Ethiopians are getting tested and busted now. You can keep your head submerged several feet in the sand if you wish, but the statistical likelihood is that at least one of the names being mentioned here will get popped before Tokyo, or before world records come down.

"And generally people who peak early don't progress much after"

Perhaps you're simply not expressing yourself very well, but that sentence is just typical of the garbage in this thread. Well yeah, people who peak early don't progress much after. People who set their pbs at 21 don't usually run faster at 25. The question is - 'has Jakob peaked yet?' And there is absolutely no sign that he has yet. Rather, his two performances of this season have shown that (despite the lockdowns and no real competition) his progress is continuing at the same rate.

I'd like to know what Jakob's final 100m time was the other night. Looked pretty speedy to me. El G's 800m pb was 1:47 and Jakob ran 1:49 on tired legs at 16 (and the world age group record the year before).

They don't have their real age because they are black africans? Is that your argument? I don't see anything suspicious toward Barega or Kejelcha, they do look very young, not much older than Jakob.

I understand why you hope that suddenly out of nowhere these Ethiopians will start to get tested positive. That's the only way Jakob could win something because by the Olympics there are very little chance that Jakob improve and can challenge them

Coevett, you said this last year and if it weren't for coronavirus we would be having the Olympics in a month and the guys you claim will be done for doping would be winning medals.

You need to look elsewhere than hoping that the Africans will all be banned or injured or retire or die or whatever you are hoping for.

Jakob can win medals by progressing by himself. The discussion here is which event will he be best at. I think it's the 1500m personally but he needs to change his tactics.

Another year of development is a good thing for Jakob but the rest will improve also. A year of racing would help Jakob develop better tactics.

I like him as an athlete, and would like to see him do well as a European. But you are so despicable and distasteful it makes people not want to celebrate a talented teenager.

My opinion is based on excellent research.

You are stating that Jakob last lap in London was similar to Bekele's last lap, but you are not taking account context.

Jakob last lap was 53.70 in a 13:02 race and a 2:26:00 last km. This is impressive, but not impressive for Bekele.

If you take Bekele 2008:

He ended the race with a 53.82 lap, but the race was much faster, 12:57, the last km was faster 2:25:30 and he has run the last two km of the race in 4:56, which is absolutely unbelievable after running 3000m while Ingebrigsten best record of 2 000 is just 4:50.

If you take Bekele 2009:

He ended with a 53.70 lap. The race was slower, 13:14, but the last km was significantly faster 2:24:88.

Here is a video of Bekele dropping a 53.02 second last lap in a 12:48 race.

As for El Guerrouj, his last lap was sub 53 in 2004 in a faster last km, and the one he lost in 2003 the last km was in 2:24 which is also much better and in a faster race.

The performance of Jakob is nothing special, it is very good, but nothing extraordinary.

You want to see what happen to Jakob when he is in a sub 13:00 race with a 2:24:94 last km? That's Doha 2019, he completely implodes and finish with a dive to save a 5th place because he can barely run.

His London 2019 performance was good but was the perfect situation for him. A moderately fast paced race with rabbits and then Kipruto who take the rythm. And the lack of competition. The only other top 5000m runner of the race with a kick beat him.

The only thing that Jakob has is his age. Wanjiru ran 26:41 at 10 000m at 18, Barega ran 12:43 at 18. Jakob is very good for his age but not even the best we have seen. And generally people who peak early don't progress much after.

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You cannot read either! I stated that Jakob at 18 WAS CLOSE TO BEKELE.....

With your additional numbers I will maintain that Jakob at 18 was not far behind Bekele and E-G in their prime!

And we were talking about Jakob´s FINISHING SPEED not his last kilometers in a 5000m

(even though Jakob´s last km was only marginally slower than Bekele´s).

This thread was about what Jakob can do in the future and you have absolutely no argument for joining the "false melody" that Jakob will peak soon.

Jakob ran the 5000m in 14:38 at 15, 13:35 at 16, 13:17 at 17 and 13:02 at 18. Does his progression chart look like it is going to flatten soon?