is JAKOB INGEBRIGTSEN going to break the mile/3k/5k world records in his career?

Must go to bed, LRC is stoopid wrote:

Coevett wrote:

The thing is, you and the other racist African doping apologists and exploiters frequently claim that every Kenyan just wants to play for Barcelona. Now when you're trying to explain why Kenyans produce so many elite runners, without bringing genes or peds into it, you suddenly claim every Kenyan boy wants to be Kiprop not Messi.

ex-runner writes a good, civil, insightful post and what do you do? Insult him.

And you think Kenya is all the same? Educate yourself.

Kids in the mountains of the Rift Valley want to be the next Kipchoge/Kiprop and not Messi, yes.

But you don't do facts, we know that by now.

Lol @ exrunner clown complimenting himself. No, you are not able to write an insightful post. All you are able to do at best is regurgitate some nonsense that got old 20 years ago.

About as insightful as a tapeworm.

I think I read something about Jakob saying that his best event will be the half someday. It’s too bad it’s not really contested at olys and wc.

Blimey wrote:

Must go to bed, LRC is stoopid wrote:

ex-runner writes a good, civil, insightful post and what do you do? Insult him.

And you think Kenya is all the same? Educate yourself.

Kids in the mountains of the Rift Valley want to be the next Kipchoge/Kiprop and not Messi, yes.

But you don't do facts, we know that by now.

Lol @ exrunner clown complimenting himself. No, you are not able to write an insightful post. All you are able to do at best is regurgitate some nonsense that got old 20 years ago.

About as insightful as a tapeworm.

Get lost Coevett.

What was the nonsense I regurgitated?

Europeans aren't competitive anymore because they don't try?

Is that really that much of an impossible argument to understand?

Will someone explain why us Brits used to run 1:41/1:42 and now are stuck at 1:44/1:45 with modern shoes and tracks?

Why the record Jakob was breaking was set by a Cram in about 1985 and no other Europeans have come close since?

Because we don't try.

I can't speak for Coevett. Hope I am not racist. But at least it is highly probable that he is clean. These allegations, without evidence, are not very nice. I don't think it is very probable that he will break the worldrecords. But you never know, you know. And by the way I am old, white and Norwegian.

KaareV wrote:

I can't speak for Coevett. Hope I am not racist. But at least it is highly probable that he is clean. These allegations, without evidence, are not very nice. I don't think it is very probable that he will break the worldrecords. But you never know, you know. And by the way I am old, white and Norwegian.

Highly probable huh? Ok, sure. I'd say highly probably too, but not for being clean. I just don't believe that in professional sports that you can put up "all-time" sorts of times and get benefit of the doubt. Not when the top lists are dominated by strongly suspected EPO dopers.

So would I say 100% dirty? Of course not. Not even for 2:01:39 Kipchoge would I say 100% dirty. But if you had to bet your life on yes or no, I know which way I'd bet.

As for Coevett, he has to be trolling on this matter. Surely no one can actually believe what he is saying. Multiple Western Europeans are capable of sub 3:30 clean but no Kenyan is capable of sub 3:32? Please.

3:55/54 indicates he's in good shape to go for sub 7:30 in the 3k. He has good speed considering that his training never seems to really hit the top speed much, except for the hill repeats. Steve Cram was the same way. He would do repeat 400s or 440s at 57 and 200s at 26-27, while Seb Coe was hitting high 30s on 300s and sometimes 23-24s on 200s quite a bit. This was a bit of a limiting factor for Cram, as we saw in L.A. in 1984 where he didn't have the acceleration Coe managed. Jakob should go after some fast 800m work to close the gap with Cheruiyot (right now, he's clearly ahead of Cheruiyot even with 8 second conversion down to 4:55 for altitude and several seconds for going out in 55; but last year he was certainly not close to that level), when the real season starts.

The real problem is that E. Africans & N. Africans runners been busted far more than European (-Russia) runners %-wise in the past decade. Many of the "European" runners busted have actually been Africans (like Fsisha)

I really don't think Russia has had more runners busted than Kenya either, yet Russia is the one banned.

There is a major loss of trust towards African performances.

Because top Europeans use modern methods with a smaller chance to get busted.

Oh Please, you twist it, by reasoning, not empirically. Why I wrote this is the extreme transparancy in the very, very, big Ingebrigtsen family, their friends etc. and they that they live in Sandnes. So it is based on my knowledge of both culture and tradition of norwegian running. And the norwegian antidoping work. Take it for what it is. Suspected EPO-dopers? Ok, but that is still not relevant in the Ingebrigtsen-case. I, for my sake, don't think he will break the trackrecords, but halfmarathon, maybe.

PS. We have had our dopingscandals, mostly in discus and shot put, all these guys who had been in US the 80ies were taken down one by one. And the pushing of limits in crosscounrtry skiing by using asthmamedicin. But not the best of them, those who did'nt have asthma. I am not, as you see using, a polemical style.

ex-runner wrote:

Blimey wrote:

Lol @ exrunner clown complimenting himself. No, you are not able to write an insightful post. All you are able to do at best is regurgitate some nonsense that got old 20 years ago.

About as insightful as a tapeworm.

Get lost Coevett.

What was the nonsense I regurgitated?

Europeans aren't competitive anymore because they don't try?

Is that really that much of an impossible argument to understand?

Will someone explain why us Brits used to run 1:41/1:42 and now are stuck at 1:44/1:45 with modern shoes and tracks?

Why the record Jakob was breaking was set by a Cram in about 1985 and no other Europeans have come close since?

Because we don't try.

I am sorry ex-runner.

That was stupid of me as usual.

I will never insult you again.

And of course you are right.

JamesTheAmateur wrote:

Not even remotely. Those records were set during the height of the EPO days. There's no way a non doped athlete could come close. I mean, look at recent history.

Who came the closest to 3:26? Kiprop, and the dude was banned for doping.

The fastest mile in the last ten years or so was Alan Webb in 3:46.91 and that is an enormous distance away from 3:43.13.

Now there is current crop of runners in the 12:40s, so maybe Cheptegei/Kipruto/Barega/Kejelcha could take it. But then it would just be a moving target for Jakob.

No way Jakob could take the WRs, even though he is massively talented.

Everything you said here is right on.

My question is that this rate of progression simply has to slow down at some point - obviously Jakob is super accelerated with respect to age and ability - could it be that he simply starts tapping out before he even hits 22? This is quite possible.

What do I think he's going to run if he stays healthy?

1500: 3.29.0 +/- 0.2 seconds

Mile: 3.48.0 +/- 0.2 seconds

2000m 4.49.5 +/- 0.5 seconds (if he ever runs one again which he may not)

3000m: 7.30.0 +/- 0.5 seconds

50000m: 12.55 +/- 1 second

I believe it's easy to just think he's going to blast his PR's every single time he's on the track. But his bank of cumulative hard efforts is well and truly underway. If he hit the best case for each of my predictions he is basically Mo Farah without the drugs which gives an idea of how good I am assuming he is.

As for WR's though? - to quote James - "not even remotely"

Some if these posts can't be real.

So he's just ran 4:50.04 virtually solo in an empty stadium after weeks of lockdown, and you think his maximum potential is 4:49.5, give or take a second either way? So his maximum potential could actually only be 4:50.5??

ex-runner wrote:

Will someone explain why us Brits used to run 1:41/1:42 and now are stuck at 1:44/1:45 with modern shoes and tracks?

Why the record Jakob was breaking was set by a Cram in about 1985 and no other Europeans have come close since?

Because we don't try.

The answer is clear because Brits aren't blood doping and using steroids the way the old timers did.:) And obviously the record stood since 1985 since Mo never took a legit shot at it.

It is hard to say why countries fall off. Some is luck (i.e. happening to have Ovett, Coe, Cram, and Elliot all show up in ~15 year period). Some is having competition pushes people. And some is environmental factors all lining up. Now if that factor was everyone doping, being inspired by events 10 years before, and so on is impossible to say.

Coevett wrote:

Some if these posts can't be real.

So he's just ran 4:50.04 virtually solo in an empty stadium after weeks of lockdown, and you think his maximum potential is 4:49.5, give or take a second either way? So his maximum potential could actually only be 4:50.5??

Your post can't be real.

Virtually solo? He had perfect, ideal human and electronic pacemaking.

Weeks of lockdown? He didn't undergo a lockdown in terms of training. He and his brothers trained very well throughout the whole corona scare.

Empty stadium? You have obviously never been to Oslo, let alone Bislett. There were people watching from the surrounding buildings and they were ALL cheering for Jakob. You could hear that very well when Warholm was running.

This was a glorified time-trial for Jakob, without any of the pressure that comes with competition.

Perfect conditions.

dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:

It is hard to say why countries fall off. Some is luck (i.e. happening to have Ovett, Coe, Cram, and Elliot all show up in ~15 year period). Some is having competition pushes people. And some is environmental factors all lining up. Now if that factor was everyone doping, being inspired by events 10 years before, and so on is impossible to say.

There's also soccer, which has attracted most European, West African and south/central American talent.

Soccer players were just starting to make good money in the late 70s. By the mid-80s you had stars like Maradona making every poor kid dream of fame and fortune.

Coevett wrote:

The Chinese men's 1500m record is 3:38.

It's 3:36. What about giving correct statements - at least now and then? Something unheard for you, I know, but...

restrunner wrote:

Coevett wrote:

The Chinese men's 1500m record is 3:38.

It's 3:36. What about giving correct statements - at least now and then? Something unheard for you, I know, but...

+1

my 3 cents wrote:

He’s probably close to max out at the 1500/mile. Say maybe 1-2 more seconds. So no.

For the 5k it would be huge if he breaks 12:50. I don’t think he will get under 12:45. However that’s still incredible and makes him a medal threat every time.

What I do find fascinating is his potential at 10k and especially the Half. He’s spent so much time training his threshold that those are ideal distances with speeds that are easy to him. Could he break 58 and run a WR for a half? I think it’s very possible.

So far his best event is the 1500. All that threshold training hasn't resulted in him being a better 5k runner than 1500 so I am not sure there is any evidence that he will be a better 10k guy than 5k guy. Maybe he gets better at the longer distances as he ages (i.e. we are talking about 19 year old) or runs more of them.

Blimey wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Get lost Coevett.

What was the nonsense I regurgitated?

Europeans aren't competitive anymore because they don't try?

Is that really that much of an impossible argument to understand?

Will someone explain why us Brits used to run 1:41/1:42 and now are stuck at 1:44/1:45 with modern shoes and tracks?

Why the record Jakob was breaking was set by a Cram in about 1985 and no other Europeans have come close since?

Because we don't try.

I am sorry ex-runner.

That was stupid of me as usual.

I will never insult you again.

And of course you are right.

You wanna be sarcastic?

Answer the question.

You or someone else I don't care.

Why are the British nowhere near as good as we used to be?

I have a good idea of the reason. I'm pretty confident in it.

What is yours?