Considering 4:44 is a doped time, to break it at altitude would be so obviously doping. 7:20 and 3:26 levels or more of doping.
Considering 4:44 is a doped time, to break it at altitude would be so obviously doping. 7:20 and 3:26 levels or more of doping.
With next-gen Nike CheaterFlys and some compression socks, nothing is out of the question.
Coevett wrote:
Kenyan depth wins again wrote:
Jakob isn’t better than Maree (4:54), Komen (4:52), or Aouita (4:50) were; he’s slower at every major distance. And I personally think that Ngeny (4:50), Baala (4:53), and Cram (4:51) were better at 800/1000 than Jakob is at 5000. At the very least, it’s obvious he wouldn’t be in the same race as Morceli (4:47).
Who knows how good Jakob is right now? He was better last year at 18 than all of those names above when they were 20 (except dope head Ngeny). No sign from his outing the other day that his progression is even slowing.
In the 1500m/Mile, his progression has been slowing. 2018 was his last big breakthrough. He only improved by ~1s last year and was the world #2, but he didn’t perform better in global championships. In fact, since he medaled in 2018 at the Continental Cup (plus Euros, WJCs), he arguably took a step back in 2019.
I agree that he has room for improvement in the 5K, which he has acknowledged as his best event. He can probably get down to low-12:5x, which, combined with his 1500m speed, would put him in contention for every global 5K title for the foreseeable future.
(2017-2018-2019)
1500m: 3:39.92-3:31.18-3:30.16
Mile: 3:56.29-3:52.28-3:51.30
5000m: 13:35.84-13:17.06-13:02.03
what a fool wrote:
Ah, look at how wonderfully your racism just oozes from your pores. You certainly make your hatred for talented white runners clearly apparent.
Preach on oh wondrous one. African runners are good. White runners are bad.
Is that what my post says? Maybe to someone with learning difficulties.
I think it says it is ironic (hence the overt sarcasm throughout the post) to celebrate a superior performance by one athlete over others, because you believe the others to be doped, and the only evidence you have for doing so is their performances.
It is entirely, totally, hilarious. El Guerrouj was doped to the gills BECAUSE he ran 3:26, a time which only Kiprop (doper) and Lagat (B sample) ran, BUT Jakob will run 3:24...
I don't think Jakob is doping. But I also don't think that many of those accused of doping on these boards were doping either.
The ridiculous thing is that you don't see the amazing performance of a white runner (someone you can associate yourself with) as evidence that it is possible to have great athletic performances without doping. Rather it gets twisted somehow to say the Africans that also performed amazingly MUST have been/are doping in order to be able to have beaten this great white talent.
You tell me which is the racist one?
The fact you can't even tell anymore that you are being racist just shows how deeply rooted your racism is.
what a fool wrote:
The fact you can't even tell anymore that you are being racist just shows how deeply rooted your racism is.
ex-runner is right and you are retarded.
objectiveobserver wrote:
I would not be surprised if Jakob with good pacemaking and conditions on the track could run 2k in 4:46. But he needs to go all in from the start.
Yeah - I’m sure Jacob (his 1500 PR pace is 57sec/400) will be able to tie/beat his PR and then run ANOTHER 57 400 to hit a 4:46 2k.
Real objective observation.
Tyler Day and Karissa Schweizer run 5k faster than their mile PR from when 18 years old. How hard us it to imagine that somebody can improve from 1500 to 2000?
Tim has run 1:43/3:28 and can legitimately run 3:45 for the mile. At sea level in a place like Monaco, he could conceivably run 3:27/3:44, maybe even dip under 3:27. He has not been pushed to the line in any of his top races yet. I think that he is aerobically strong enough to run sub 7:30 as well.
Morceli ran 4:47. I think Tim can go 4:46 at his peak at sea level. At 5800 ft, sub 4:50 is possible for him, which would be very, very good. Jacob can run 4:51-52 or so at sea level now, I think. His 1500m pr of 3:30 predicts 3:46/4:50. He doesn't figure to be in his best shape now with no official races for months.
Kenyan depth wins again wrote:
In the 1500m/Mile, his progression has been slowing. 2018 was his last big breakthrough. He only improved by ~1s last year and was the world #2, but he didn’t perform better in global championships. In fact, since he medaled in 2018 at the Continental Cup (plus Euros, WJCs), he arguably took a step back in 2019.
I agree that he has room for improvement in the 5K, which he has acknowledged as his best event. He can probably get down to low-12:5x, which, combined with his 1500m speed, would put him in contention for every global 5K title for the foreseeable future.
(2017-2018-2019)
1500m: 3:39.92-3:31.18-3:30.16
Mile: 3:56.29-3:52.28-3:51.30
5000m: 13:35.84-13:17.06-13:02.03
No, those stats are misleading and you're misinterpreting what I said.
First of all I don't mean he's going to continue chopping 5 seconds off his 1500m pb every season. What I mean is that his relative progression is still on course for him to reach his peak in his early twenties - as opposed to many here who every season assume he's already peaked.
Secondly, last season he just failed to break 3:30 in Lausanne when he looked like he had a lot more to give. He was also peaking for Doha much later. We all know how it went in Monaco. He was likely in shape for sub 3:29 there if it had been run the same way as the previous season when he made his breakthrough of 3:31. His 5000 progression last year (and which already appears to be continuing) is more indicative of his overall continued progression.
He improved his 1500m pb 6 seconds in 2015 at age 15, then only 2 1/2 seconds the next year at 16, but then another 8 seconds in 2018. He could break El G's WR this year (maybe unlikely simply due to the disruption in the calender), but it's certainly possible next year. At least, there is a chance of it, and be honest, the only reason you people are ruling it out is because he has the wrong skin color in your minds. A black kid running these times would have you all drooling at the expectation of sub 3:25 and sub 12:20 by the time he's 25, even with the documented age cheating in Africa.
And remember he also got sick at a critical time last year, and had his final school exams to study for. Not that he needs any excuses for the incredible feats he performed last season.
Jakob is 19. His PRs are from when was 17 or 18. Would you expect all of the current high schoolers to run the same times next year when they are 19? They usually drop a few seconds from their mile and.10-20 seconds off of 2 mile.
Coevett wrote:
Not that he needs any excuses
But you're always eager to dole out excuses for your losers.
Yeah - I’m sure Jacob (his 1500 PR pace is 57sec/400) will be able to tie/beat his PR and then run ANOTHER 57 400 to hit a 4:46 2k.
Real objective observation.[/quote]
3:30=56sec/400. Math can be hard
Coevett wrote:
He could break El G's WR this year (maybe unlikely simply due to the disruption in the calender), but it's certainly possible next year.
3:30 to 3:26? That’s an improvement of ~1s/lap. Jakob seems the lack the basic speed (or EPO) necessary to feel comfortable off of a ~1:50 first 800m.
Coevett wrote:
At least, there is a chance of it, and be honest, the only reason you people are ruling it out is because he has the wrong skin color in your minds. A black kid running these times would have you all drooling at the expectation of sub 3:25 and sub 12:20 by the time he's 25, even with the documented age cheating in Africa.
I personally think most of the distance records (1500-10K) are drug-assisted; I don’t think any current athletes could break them cleanly.
predictors wrote:
Jakob is 19. His PRs are from when was 17 or 18. Would you expect all of the current high schoolers to run the same times next year when they are 19? They usually drop a few seconds from their mile and.10-20 seconds off of 2 mile.
What US high school kid is even on the same planet as Jakob?! Apples to oranges if I've ever seen it.
zxcvzcxv wrote:
Tim has run 1:43/3:28 and can legitimately run 3:45 for the mile. At sea level in a place like Monaco, he could conceivably run 3:27/3:44, maybe even dip under 3:27. He has not been pushed to the line in any of his top races yet. I think that he is aerobically strong enough to run sub 7:30 as well.
Morceli ran 4:47. I think Tim can go 4:46 at his peak at sea level. At 5800 ft, sub 4:50 is possible for him, which would be very, very good. Jacob can run 4:51-52 or so at sea level now, I think. His 1500m pr of 3:30 predicts 3:46/4:50. He doesn't figure to be in his best shape now with no official races for months.
This is the first legitimate analysis on the thread and I agree with the take.
I don't think he can run sub-4:48 at 5800', but his PR's align with a near WR potential in the right conditions at sea level.
I don’t really have a dog in the fight, I just want to say that 4:46 is not 3:30 pace. Jakob’s PB is 4:40.21 pace. This is not to say that Jakob can run 4:46, just an observation.
It baffles me that someone can take the time to make an angry post where the whole post is based on an obviously factually incorrect argument.
babaganosh wrote:
I don’t really have a dog in the fight, I just want to say that 4:46 is not 3:30 pace. Jakob’s PB is 4:40.21 pace. This is not to say that Jakob can run 4:46, just an observation.
It baffles me that someone can take the time to make an angry post where the whole post is based on an obviously factually incorrect argument.
What are you talking about? Do you know what the word "predicts" means?
history repeats wrote:
Coevett wrote:
Not that he needs any excuses
But you're always eager to dole out excuses for your losers.
Always. White runners always have excuses in Covid's book.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year