agip wrote:
I think the deaths in the 4 problem states are falling unrealistically fast.
Why? Deaths are following the same pattern as it has everywhere the
disease has gotten established enough to go exponential.
Example:
https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/---
Covid hit Stockholm like a storm in mid-March. One day I was seeing people with appendicitis and kidney stones, the usual things you see in the emergency room. The next day all those patients were gone and the only thing coming in to the hospital was covid. Practically everyone who was tested had covid, regardless of what the presenting symtom was. People came in with a nose bleed and they had covid. They came in with stomach pain and they had covid.
Then, after a few months, all the covid patients disappeared. It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative.
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The data shows it takes about 4 weeks to reach 'herd immunity', which the definition
is that R is less than 1 so cases are decreasing. The flatness of the curve after that
4 weeks is going to be whether the disease is moving into new areas--the
overlapping curves for the new areas will flatten things out.
New York City, that seems to have been seeded pretty uniformly and is overall
densely populated, had a pretty sharp decline. Sweden was flatter because it
moved out from Stockholm to the rest of the country, but per the article listed,
Stockholm itself it followed the NYC curve.
For the US south. Looks like the riots jump started things in those states
all at the same time, so there will probably be a sharp decline. Not as sharp as
NYC, as there are suburbs and surrounding populations to round the
curve a bit, but it will probably be pretty sharp.
Thing is the riots may have saved Trump's candidacy. One, it showed maybe
the anti police positions have gone a bit too far, and two, without the riots
jump starting Covid, the southern states may have ended up peaking about
election time. With this timing instead, it will probably be essentially gone
there.