57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.

It’s not.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1289975186909884417?s=20

unbiased news reader wrote:

Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.

It’s not.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1289975186909884417?s=20

It is. Deaths, do they count?

unbiased news reader wrote:

Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.

It’s not.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1289975186909884417?s=20

You do know that this guy thinks that smoking pot will turn everyone into psychotic homicidal maniacs?

And his main argument is that lockdowns are not necessary because the virus naturally works itself out. He thinks this is Farr's law in action. But Farr's law is just an observation on how outbreaks progress in a symmetrical pattern. It was never intended to be a policy guide. And Berenson just keeps going around pointing to the expected plateaus and declines in severity of outbreaks in places where there are no lockdowns as evidence that lockdowns aren't necessary. But this assumes that if there was a lockdown everything would have turned out the same. No sane person thinks that TX, AZ, FL would have proceeded on the same trajectory had they locked down in June when it became clear that new case total were moving up. About 3,500 people died in TX in July, Had the state locked down long before new case numbers rose exponentially, many of those 3,500 people would still be alive today. That is because it has been shown over and over that when you lock down early, you do not even get to Farr's law.

There are two-three weeks of major deaths to report from when there were bigger icu issues. Not to mention around July 4-6, deaths were averaging around 90 per day. If that’s the own the libs good news in Florida when they’re nearing 10,000 deaths I’m not sure they’re doing it right.

Theros wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

First off, people definitely do go about their normal routing while waiting for their test results.

Secondly, fifi never said the person suspected COVID. You don't have to suspect you might have it to get a test.

brazen2 has been advocating that everyone go and get tested no matter what. This is foolhardy and a waste of precious testing resources. It makes the problem worse.

I never said he/she did.

But if you are going to play this game...

Fifi said when the lag In results is greater than 2 weeks, testing is meaningless. Since the lag in results is typically not greater than 2 weeks, the point is meaningless.

And how does more testing make the pandemic worse?

It's not that more testing makes things worse. It's the slowdown of test results that makes the pandemic worse.

If you can't get test results within 48 hours, then the test is meaningless in terms of preventing further spread. That's what the medical experts are telling us.

Right now, testing is a scarce resource. Testing of healthy individuals who have no reason to suspect infection makes the pandemic worse because it takes testing away from those who really need it.

In other words, many who are likely to have the virus can't get tested or suffer a delay that might have identified them and allowed contact tracing. But if those likely to be infected don't quickly get tested and don't quickly get results, you can't use the positive test to help stop the spread.

Rt at 0.97

Cases per day continue to drop from peak Jul11 (at 3.5 week low)

Deaths at plateau since Jul15

Hospitalizations at plateau since Jul20

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

brazen2 wrote:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/end-home-isolation.html

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

I notice that you dropped "believe the science". Is that because you know that the science says you are wrong? Is it because science says your four suggestions aren't working?

The only way to fix this problem is to have lockdowns wherever there is high community spread. Right now, we don't have any other effective tools.

08/03 Data

All: 7 day rolling average of deaths

Data the next few days will be poor because of the hurricane in FL and the US east coast.

The world did set a new cyclical high. That's the worst news.

The US has 3 days of a plateau. Probably because of FL reporting delays.

Brazil may be on the mend - its 7 day average is 1003...its high a few weeks ago was 1081.

In the states...

FL fell for the second day in a row. Probably hurricane related.

CA new high

TX new high

AZ is falling. Now at 68 was at 83 once. Good going AZ.

Add those states together, take a 7 day average, and you get a new high, 31% higher than a week ago. That is legit scary.

And that 31% is the highest in this cycle.

7/27: 12% rise

7/28: 14% rise

19%

20%

29%

30%

29%

8/3: 31% rise

I suppose you can say that acceleration is stalling out, but it could be just because of the 'cane.

Congrats. You know how to mimic a parrot. What a concept you mimic a creature that is also mimicking. I almost wish I was this stupid

245 deaths reported in Florida today. 186 last Tuesday I believe. This week may end up being Florida's worst, as the Mondays had identical deaths.

Theros wrote:

fifi wrote:

When the lag in results is > 2 weeks, testing is entirely meaningless. You could be infected, get tested, spread the disease for 2 weeks, then find out you were positive 2 weeks ago. This model obviously isn't working and it's entirely because Donald Trump is an astoundingly weak leader.

If you suspected you had COVID or came into contact with someone who did, why would you go about your normal routine while waiting for your results. Wouldn’t you isolate or. quarantine?

I agree. But then what's the point of testing for an active infection? How will that help stop the spread?

Theros wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

First off, people definitely do go about their normal routing while waiting for their test results.

Secondly, fifi never said the person suspected COVID. You don't have to suspect you might have it to get a test.

brazen2 has been advocating that everyone go and get tested no matter what. This is foolhardy and a waste of precious testing resources. It makes the problem worse.

I never said he/she did.

But if you are going to play this game...

Fifi said when the lag In results is greater than 2 weeks, testing is meaningless. Since the lag in results is typically not greater than 2 weeks, the point is meaningless.

And how does more testing make the pandemic worse?

Brazen claims that getting tested will help stop the spread. On it's face that makes sense- if you know you have the disease you will self-quarantine. But since there is undeniably a huge delay in testing (no idea what the average is but I personally know someone who waited >2 weeks for a result) how could testing possibly help stop the spread? Why are we telling everyone to get tested when there is such a massive delay? Given that there is a delay we must triage testing for testing to be effective.

You should get tested if you have symptoms or were in contact with someone who had it. There are only a few places that have quick enough testing turnaround to encourage getting tested just for the heck of it.

Florida had to make an adjustment for it:

http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/08/080320-2104-covid19.pr.html

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

You should get tested if you have symptoms or were in contact with someone who had it. There are only a few places that have quick enough testing turnaround to encourage getting tested just for the heck of it.

Florida had to make an adjustment for it:

http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/08/080320-2104-covid19.pr.html

Good. Sounds like we're in agreement. However the original poster who I was responded to has consistently stated to "GET TESTED", but to what end? That is what I was questioning.

Gotcha. Yeah, I'm in agreement to revise that well-meaning, but misguided directive.

My co-workers were alarmed by my thought that I think NYC/Northeast schools should at least partially resume in-school classes. As you can tell from this thread I am definitely not a COVID-19 truther. Unfortunately, I think school openings in parts of the country will be bad, which will color any interpretation of how it fares in other parts of the country. What I mean is if it goes disastrously in Florida/Georgia, if an isolated school in Massachusetts has a small outbreak suddenly that will be viewed with a very dire perspective. We will see.

fifi wrote:

Theros wrote:

If you suspected you had COVID or came into contact with someone who did, why would you go about your normal routine while waiting for your results. Wouldn’t you isolate or. quarantine?

I agree. But then what's the point of testing for an active infection? How will that help stop the spread?

There is no point of testing people who have symptoms or have been in contact with a person with the disease. Assume you have and and isolate. I think brazen just posted the CDC guidelines for that and there is no testing. Just stay isolated. Finding asymptomatic or presymptomatic positives through testing would help though. It may not be the be all end all way but it be one way to help.

Do you really not get how it works. Yes, for the individual the reaction is the same. However, for the dozens of people that individual has come into contact with: do you really think they're all going to quarantine for 10 days based on someone *thinking* they might have encountered someone else OR might have symptoms. If that person gets a test (and it's positive), there's a 99.9% chance they'll treat their own possibility of having it much more seriously.

fifi wrote:

Theros wrote:

I never said he/she did.

But if you are going to play this game...

Fifi said when the lag In results is greater than 2 weeks, testing is meaningless. Since the lag in results is typically not greater than 2 weeks, the point is meaningless.

And how does more testing make the pandemic worse?

Brazen claims that getting tested will help stop the spread. On it's face that makes sense- if you know you have the disease you will self-quarantine. But since there is undeniably a huge delay in testing (no idea what the average is but I personally know someone who waited >2 weeks for a result) how could testing possibly help stop the spread? Why are we telling everyone to get tested when there is such a massive delay? Given that there is a delay we must triage testing for testing to be effective.

All I’ve seen him/her post is “get tested” so I can’t answer that for him/her. Testing helps communities know where hot spots are. A high positive percentage would show that. And a high number of positive tests would show that and help communities better prepare. Without testing resources could not be allocated efficiently. . The family next door to me got tested yesterday and got results in 30 minutes. I know another person who got one of the PCR tests and got it back in 2-3 days. It’s definitely less than ideal but i don’t think testing hurts.