57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

I live in Georgia and I've been tracking the Georgia data very closely.

New cases are rising very fast right now. In another week or two, it looks like the 7-day average of daily new cases will be at the highest level ever.

The original lockdown definitely worked. New cases were falling even as testing ramped up. Then about three weeks after opening back up, cases started spiking again.

The spike does coincide with even more testing. But Georgia's data on that is tainted badly. They combine Molecular (PCR) tests and Serology (antibody) tests into one number. So we don't know for sure if the spike in new cases is because of a vastly increased number of PCR tests. (Antibody tests are irrelevant to understanding the cause of the spike.)

My personal opinion is that the primary cause of Georgia's spike in new cases is because we eased restrictions. Following the governor's lead, Georgia citizens have started to ignore the dangers. I see it everywhere.

In a few weeks we will know if the spike in new cases leads to a spike in deaths. Unfortunately, it may take a lot of dead Georgians to know for sure what governor Kemp's deadly gamble has wrought.

And this same scenario is playing out in many other states. Georgia just happens to be the first.

Fat hurts wrote:And this same scenario is playing out in many other states. Georgia just happens to be the first.

There are some very interesting parallels with experience in the US during the Spanish flu. States and cities that eased restrictions back then early (imagine that, there were restrictions to try to control the outbreak!) suffered the worst and longest economic loss and sustained heavier second waves and associated deaths.

I hope history does not repeat itself, but fear it will and like you am watching very closely (although not Georgia specifically).

Giles Corey wrote:

Right. There are no global elites that call most of the shots.

They depend on people like you

This is completely nuts. Money does talk and the wealthy have a disproportionate influence over democracy. However it's fairly clear most investors didn't want a lock-down. Amazon furiously resisted being closed down - they had no idea whether they'd continue to have staff working. I'm sure you can name a few companies which have done well - Amazon, Netflix and Walmart. But for every one of those there's a ton of blue-chips which have collapsed.

Your definition of elite seems to be an ever dwindling pool of people as then the idea a lock-down is economically beneficial to anybody is crazy. The "elite" will want you to go back to work. In fact everyone wants to go back but until we've got antivirals, a vaccine and home test kits (we need 2 out of 3 of these) we're not going back to normal anytime soon.

Jesus H. Have you seen how many trillions of $$ have gone to the elite since the lockdown?

Who owns the media that is selling us 24/7 fear?

When's the last time the elites engaged in a fear campaign and weren't up to no good?

Wake up

So you do know the names of the “elite.”

Giles Corey wrote:

Who owns the media that is selling us 24/7 fear?

Fox News is owned by Rupert Murdoch.

His company owns The London Times, The Sun, The Wall Street Journal and the NY Post. He also owns the two most read Australian papers. Rupert Murdoch companies also run entertainment and sports television and radio channels globally - programs which are more difficult to create if there's a lock-down.

Newspapers have seen a massive drop in circulation due to the lock-down. Not only is this a problem in itself for him but it threatens his influence as newspaper journalism is still widely used by broadcast media for a steer on their news.

Remind me again why he would want a lock-down?

Giles Corey wrote:

Who owns the media that is selling us 24/7 fear?

And if you think I'm just picking on Fox then NBC is owned by Comcast who also own Universal Pictures and Universal Parks. ABC is owned by Disney who similarly run film studios and parks.

Remind me again why they would want nobody to go to the cinema or to amusement parks?

Hmmm almost as if they would prefer we go back to normal as quickly as possible.

appleswan wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

Who owns the media that is selling us 24/7 fear?

Fox News is owned by Rupert Murdoch.

His company owns The London Times, The Sun, The Wall Street Journal and the NY Post. He also owns the two most read Australian papers. Rupert Murdoch companies also run entertainment and sports television and radio channels globally - programs which are more difficult to create if there's a lock-down.

Newspapers have seen a massive drop in circulation due to the lock-down. Not only is this a problem in itself for him but it threatens his influence as newspaper journalism is still widely used by broadcast media for a steer on their news.

Remind me again why he would want a lock-down?

How many effin trillions of $$ have to go to the top 1/10th of 1% before you understand why he would want a lockdown? You guys will remain in denial all the way

Giles Corey wrote:

appleswan wrote:

Fox News is owned by Rupert Murdoch.

His company owns The London Times, The Sun, The Wall Street Journal and the NY Post. He also owns the two most read Australian papers. Rupert Murdoch companies also run entertainment and sports television and radio channels globally - programs which are more difficult to create if there's a lock-down.

Newspapers have seen a massive drop in circulation due to the lock-down. Not only is this a problem in itself for him but it threatens his influence as newspaper journalism is still widely used by broadcast media for a steer on their news.

Remind me again why he would want a lock-down?

How many effin trillions of $$ have to go to the top 1/10th of 1% before you understand why he would want a lockdown? You guys will remain in denial all the way

So now we have Bezos and Murdoch outed. I thought you said these elites were secret???

How are they making money, gaining power and enslaving you?? Your conspiracy is falling apart.

BTW, unfortunately, 47 deaths reported in GA yesterday due to Covid. 47>27

Giles Corey wrote:

How many effin trillions of $$ have to go to the top 1/10th of 1% before you understand why he would want a lockdown? You guys will remain in denial all the way

But if Murdoch wants a lockdown why are pundits like the one you posted appearing on his channel calling it "insanity" and saying "it's causing panic and reckless moral judgement"?

Giles Corey wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll5aYN_VkM4

Fat hurts wrote:

The spike does coincide with even more testing. But Georgia's data on that is tainted badly. They combine Molecular (PCR) tests and Serology (antibody) tests into one number. So we don't know for sure if the spike in new cases is because of a vastly increased number of PCR tests. (Antibody tests are irrelevant to understanding the cause of the spike.)

Georgia has promised to change the way they report testing so that the above is no longer a problem.

The last few weeks, the number of tests reported in Georgia has been roughly in the range of 10,000 to 30,000 per day. But the last two days, the number of tests was only 1400 and 3646 respectively.

If those numbers really reflect the number of PCR tests we are doing then Georgia is in serious trouble. It means the spike in new cases is very, very real.

And it would mean that Georgia's reopening has been a total disaster.

Hospitals are not overwhelmed which means we should encourage more interaction. Ideally, hospitals would operate near capacity in order to help Covid patients and all others. That is the way to keep the curve as steep as possible which shortens the duration of the virus.

Every person in Georgia could be positive. The question is whether Georgia’s hospitals are overwhelmed. Wasn’t that the primary goal of the lockdown? Since you don’t care to dig them up, here are the hospital bed numbers from Georgia. Do you consider this a total disaster?

State of Georgia Bed Capacity

ER Beds in Use: 1,159

ER Bed Availability: 2,189

Critical Care Beds in Use: 2,032

Critical Care Bed Availability: 879

Inpatient Beds in Use: 9,956

Inpatient Bed Availability: 5,214

https://elink.clickdimensions.com/m/1/68680496/02-b20147-7e385d889c65426e88daf5e30fe601d9/4/580/d871a0f7-dfbf-4251-a322-09686fc62908

The Trump haters changed their tune when they realized that the death toll is not high enough. They now are trying to claim that lockdowns will save lives due to people not being infected. Theonly way for that to happen is to maintain a lockdown until a vaccine exists which may be never.

It is still too early to draw definitive conclusions, however, the first round of relevant data from Georgia shows that the re-opening is resulting in an uptick in positive cases. I still think we are two weeks away from really knowing the effect for states like Georgia that went ahead with re-opening early. It is also amazing that months into this mess, the CDC is only now trying to come up with a uniform data tracking standard.

I don't think we will see a huge spike. I do think we will be back up to levels that are not far off of the peak in states that are re-opening quickly. This is largely because many people will be following social distancing guidelines and protecting themselves. So, you will see very weak return to economic activity as significant percentages of people have no confidence in the re-opening and will avoid going out unless it is absolutely necessary. We may see states that have done the hard work be able to return with better level of confidence as their rates get low enough to be controlled with testing and tracking while others enter into a permanent state of a moderate outbreak that is enough to keep a good percentage of people home but without overwhelming the health system.

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1265596282179117056

https://covidtracking.com/blog/tracking-cdc

predictors wrote:

Hospitals are not overwhelmed which means we should encourage more interaction. Ideally, hospitals would operate near capacity in order to help Covid patients and all others. That is the way to keep the curve as steep as possible which shortens the duration of the virus.

That's a really stupid plan. You can't keep nurses and doctors battling this virus at full capacity for months and months. It's like saying you should run every workout at race pace.

It's equally stupid to encourage more transmission. Many people who get this disease will die. Others may suffer lasting effects such as diminished lung capacity.

The way to beat this is to do what other nations have done:

1) Shut it down

2) Stop the spread

3) Test and trace

That's how you save lives and get the economy back to full speed as quickly as possible.

Many nations have done this, but America has not. We are among the worst in the world and now other nations have pity on us.