57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

Here's Georgia data (taken from the John's Hopkins site, 5-day smoothed) of daily new cases per million population:

https://ibb.co/Tmn7K1x

Last time I updated the graph it looked like new cases were slowing down, but the dreaded resurgence people have warned the deniers about appears to have materialized. Time will tell whether this too is just noise versus a real and worrisome change in behavior.

Here are a couple of other states that have been surging up the past few weeks:

https://ibb.co/jGQ9RtJ

https://ibb.co/BCWbsL1

Of note, Florida has been creeping upward since they loosened restrictions 3-4 weeks ago.

The overall trend in the US has been gradual decrease, and roughly half of US states are showing slowing growth. However, if I exclude NY and NJ, the epicenter of the original outbreak in the US, we get the following recent trend:

https://ibb.co/94fLs2z

The US outside NY and NJ has been hovering stubbornly around a plateau for 6 to 7 weeks, showing no obvious signs yet of slowing down. This seems to be what the deniers and foot-draggers think is OK.

Just a question: why 5-day smouthing when there is obvious noise for week-ends data? Isn't 7-day smouthed the way to go to eliminate that noise?

I recommand playing with the options of the second (or fourth if you prefer normalized per state population) graph in this page:

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Set it to linear and Y axis scaled to highlight if you want to better show specific trends.

You can see various indicators. I'll just let others do their own interpretation of the data, and the implications on what it means for political decisions.

expert of nothing wrote:Just a question: why 5-day smouthing when there is obvious noise for week-ends data? Isn't 7-day smouthed the way to go to eliminate that noise?

The short answer is because that's the way I set up my spreadsheet a couple of months ago, and I can't be bothered to adjust it. The difference between 5-day and 7-day smoothing is barely perceptible and makes no difference for practical purposes.

I've built a more recent spreadsheet for tracking hot spots (areas of recent 2-week growth in daily new cases), and in that spreadsheet I've adopted 7-day smoothing. But it really makes little or no difference.

Of course, clueless people like riled-up Corey read 5-day smoothing and their heads explode. Which amuses me a little, hence I've not bothered to change what I show in these graphs.

interested reader wrote:

expert of nothing wrote:Just a question: why 5-day smouthing when there is obvious noise for week-ends data? Isn't 7-day smouthed the way to go to eliminate that noise?

The short answer is because that's the way I set up my spreadsheet a couple of months ago, and I can't be bothered to adjust it. The difference between 5-day and 7-day smoothing is barely perceptible and makes no difference for practical purposes.

I've built a more recent spreadsheet for tracking hot spots (areas of recent 2-week growth in daily new cases), and in that spreadsheet I've adopted 7-day smoothing. But it really makes little or no difference.

Of course, clueless people like riled-up Corey read 5-day smoothing and their heads explode. Which amuses me a little, hence I've not bothered to change what I show in these graphs.

Giles says IMGBB is fake news. ;)

Pretty sure 26 is less than 57.

In fact, 31 deaths Friday and 26 on Saturday equals precisely the 57 claimed by the OP.

Maybe he was confused when he claimed 57 in one day.

And, as far as smoothed graphs of cases per million......what does this show?

Let's focus on actual numbers.

26 deaths in Georgia on Saturday.

Far below the average of weeks ago during the lockdown.

Let the fact free smearing, name calling, and general whining begin by those whose opinion is given to them by the media.

Daily New Deaths in Florida

Novel Coronavirus Daily Deaths

Daily Deaths

May 24: Two

In the interest of countering stupidity and disinformation, here is the past few weeks of daily cases and fatalities for Florida:

https://ibb.co/Bq3tGPr

Cases have been climbing steadily upward for nearly four weeks, since right about the time they opened the beaches back up. Fatalities fluctuate wildly, but have hovered at around close to about 2 per million population for about six weeks.

Lots of people will cherry pick stats to try to make a point.

Can't find fake news so making up your own?

Georgia deaths still going down and are half the rate of the U.S. (0.22/100,000 v. 0.41).

Lying for an agenda of societal control is the job of media, just let the pros do their job in fanning the flames of fear.

There are many right now who are getting a well-paid vacation that want the checks to keep coming while they get to feel righteous for getting paid not to work. The rest of us don't have the dole coming in to pay for this nonsense.

zzzz wrote:

Go away rainy day wrote:

Why should we care if there is an increase? As long as hospitals are not overwhelmed, we should continue to decrease distancing.

Most people don't want to be "processed" through COVID-19. If someone gets it bad enough get hospitalized, they have about a 17% chance of dying.

"Among 281 (92.1%) patients who were no longer hospitalized at the time of data abstraction, 48 (17.1%) died. Case fatality among patients aged 18–49 years, 50–64 years, and ≥65 years was 3.4%, 9.8%, and 35.6%, respectively (p<0.001)"

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e1.htm

Your stats are WAY off, based on predictions from early on based on Italy, etc. Current estimates show about 20 to 50% of carriers are asymptomatic, so consider how that affects the fatality rate.

The chances of dying from COVID-19 if you are in the 0 to 49 age group is currently estimated by the CDC to be .05%:

YMMV wrote:

Can't find fake news so making up your own?

Georgia deaths still going down and are half the rate of the U.S. (0.22/100,000 v. 0.41).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/georgia

Lying for an agenda of societal control is the job of media, just let the pros do their job in fanning the flames of fear.

Uh oh....

“IHME (aka healthdata.ord) receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation”

So you trust Bill and Melinda Gate now? ???

YMMV wrote:Georgia deaths still going down and are half the rate of the U.S. (0.22/100,000 v. 0.41).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/georgia

Lying for an agenda of societal control is the job of media, just let the pros do their job in fanning the flames of fear.

Speaking of lying, you clearly did not look at the data you've just linked, or you chose deliberately to distort the truth, as they show that the daily rate of fatalities in Georgia has been roughly the same for several weeks, with minor fluctuations.

Can you guys explain to me who is behind this vast conspiracy and what it is they are trying to gain?

Is it the Illuminati, Free Masons, Jaycees, 4-H Club???

YMMV wrote:

Can't find fake news so making up your own?

“The model has been cited often by the White House and has informed its policymaking. But it may have led the administration astray: The IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak — an assumption that has not been borne out.“

“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to making projections about Covid-19, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told reporters.“

Oh good lord... this is too good!

Not only did your organization get funded by the gates - it’s projections have also been consistently proven as trash.

Rough morning for you ?

Spyke wrote:

Can you guys explain to me who is behind this vast conspiracy and what it is they are trying to gain?

Is it the Illuminati, Free Masons, Jaycees, 4-H Club???

The global elites.

What are they trying to gain?

More. As always. More money. More power. More control.

More for them, less for uys.

Sensationalist headlines aside, 235 people, in the entire state, under 70, have died from COVID with no known (51), or unknown (184), underlying conditions. Protect the the elderly and go back to work. Act responsibly, do some damn homework, and quit destroying this country. The data is per their dashboard, download the CSV file and figure it out for yourself.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Giles Corey wrote:

The global elites.

What are they trying to gain?

More. As always. More money. More power. More control.

More for them, less for uys.

Demographic ageing over the next decade or so is going to be a big problem: more senior citizens to support with less young workers to provide economic growth.

Could the conspiracy be the virus kills a % of the over-65s and the "elites" are happy with this because it means more money for them? They therefore encourage you to ignore any safety measures and downplay the severity so you spread the disease.

Before this started, I thought this would be angle you'd take?

The Sword of Science wrote:

The chances of dying from COVID-19 if you are in the 0 to 49 age group is currently estimated by the CDC to be .05%:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

This has been widely ridiculed by prominent epidemiologists. And in my state 18-49 is running 0.4% symptomatic CFR.

macdaddy wrote:

YMMV wrote:

Can't find fake news so making up your own?

“The model has been cited often by the White House and has informed its policymaking. But it may have led the administration astray: The IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak — an assumption that has not been borne out.“

“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to making projections about Covid-19, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told reporters.“

Oh good lord... this is too good!

Not only did your organization get funded by the gates - it’s projections have also been consistently proven as trash.

Rough morning for you ?

I couldn't care less about the modeled projections, they usually turn out to be wrong. This site presents the historical data on mortality and that is why I linked it. If you have a better link to Georgia's historical covid mortality data, feel free to post it up instead of looking for bullshit that I neither mentioned nor care about.