57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

hey look, it's the least expert of all the least experts. wrote:

[quote]Bad Wigins wrote:

When data is reported doesn't tell you when it happened, and with this virus, it doesn't even tell you what they actually died of either.

dude, shut up.

tens of thousands more Americans are dying than normal......you have an explanation for that?

1. Do you have a source for that?

2. The rise in unemployment, food shortages, drub abuse, depression, etc. due to the lockdown had killed how man y people?

Giles Corey wrote:

hey look, it's the least expert of all the least experts. wrote:

dude, shut up.

tens of thousands more Americans are dying than normal......you have an explanation for that?

1. Do you have a source for that?

2. The rise in unemployment, food shortages, drub abuse, depression, etc. due to the lockdown had killed how man y people?

1. why bother?

can you give me an example of when you changed your mind based on a fact?

2. can you please give me a source for that? I'm going to say zero.

Giles Corey wrote:tens of thousands more Americans are dying than normal......you have an explanation for that?

1. Do you have a source for that?

That question tells us all we need to know about GC's idiotic point of view.

Actual daily fatalities data for Georgia (US state, not the nation GC gets it confused with...), in fatalities per million population, smoothed as 5-day average, are:

Georgia's fatalities show a weekly pattern, usually peaking on Saturdays. There has been a recent uptick, but so far this is just noise, and daily fatalities have been hovering at about 3 per million per day (or a little over 30 fatalities per day) since early April, or a little over six weeks. If you squint at the graph, you can see a gradual lowering trend over the past 3 weeks. Lt's hope this keeps up or accelerates!

Herd immunity means many have to die and only the ones who can resist the virus get to survive. If USA goes down the path of herd immunity, expect 2 million deaths.

We better hope this virus does not mutate and start attacking kids. Thats why re-opening schools is gonna be a difficult decision.

Drumroll wrote:

Herd immunity means many have to die and only the ones who can resist the virus get to survive. If USA goes down the path of herd immunity, expect 2 million deaths.

We better hope this virus does not mutate and start attacking kids. Thats why re-opening schools is gonna be a difficult decision.

You believe the current virus isn't a threat to kids but we may needto stay shut down because it could mutate?

Her immunity doesn't mean everyone has to die. It means enough people need to be exposed to the virus. Yes some will die but the fatality rate of this thing is estimated by nearly everyone to be well under 1% so that isn't 2 million deaths. And kids and what not won't get infested very much do they will limit deaths.

You are worried this will mutate? So then it would seem you aren't optimistic about a vaccine. So what's your strategy stay locked down forever?

not exactly sir wrote:...Yes some will die but the fatality rate of this thing is estimated by nearly everyone to be well under 1% so that isn't 2 million deaths....

The US has reached damn near 100,000 deaths. 2 million may seem impossible, but I think a lot of people (the deniers anyway) thought 10s of thousands was impossible a few weeks ago.

I personally fear the foot-dragging rationalizers will argue their point all the way to over a million deaths in the US, still chirping "iit's the flu, bro) and "fake deaths" all the way there...

And meanwhile, back at LRC HQ, three deaf, dumb and blind monkeys sit by, watching, amused.

The time for Never Trumpism is over. You can rally around the guy who will continue to appoint competent judges and defend the country or you can posture for the libs.

Dodging the draft for a pointless illegal war was the honorable thing to do. Do people actually retroactively support the Vietnam War to own Drumpf?

Principled Turd wrote:Dodging the draft ... was the honorable thing to do.

I feel like view doesn't resonate strongly among most republicans (or democrats).

not exactly sir wrote:

Her immunity doesn't mean everyone has to die. It means enough people need to be exposed to the virus. Yes some will die but the fatality rate of this thing is estimated by nearly everyone to be well under 1% so that isn't 2 million deaths. And kids and what not won't get infested very much do they will limit deaths.

Just plan wrong. It takes anywhere from 40-90+ % exposure before herd immunity kicks in.

So using US’ demographics and the mortality rate per demographic group as seen in Italy and S. Korea:

1. 30% infection @ Italian death rate => 1.2 million

2. 70% infection @ Italian death rate => 2.9 million US deaths.

3. 30% @ Korean rate => 0.8 million US deaths

4. 70% @ Korean rate => 1.9 million US deaths

So 2 million deaths is a very reasonable estimate of # of deaths while achieving herd immunity. If mutations etc. open up the possibility of reinfection for exposed persons, the deaths would obviously be higher.

not exactly sir wrote:

exact opposite story is being told by others

https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/go4zyc/ga_sees_lowest_coronavirus_hospitalizations_since/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/gncv7k/as_georgia_was_reopening_at_the_end_of_april/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Here's what those 7 days look like when you actually look at the numbers instead of the 7 day average, taking into account the fact that there's an incubation period for the virus, so any infection data we have is really always a historical look.

Oh, and here's the updated data for that time period:

Yeah, that 7 day average line in orange doesn't start going up on May 11 (2 weeks after reopening) at all...

Spyke wrote:

57 deaths reported today in Georgia. 1000 new cases the day before. 7 day death average highest since re-opening.

Are we starting to see the signs of the predicted spike?

Lies. 150 deaths over the last four days.

Georgia's death rate is HALF of that of the U.S. as a whole. Fake Frikin News from Fake Frikin Fear-mongers.

Jurgen wrote:

Wrong, I’m an actual conservative not a fan boi of a New York real estate, reality TV conman in bed with the Kushners.

Close to 100,000 Americans are dead inside a few short months and our Vets are dropping like flies.

Yet all I see is a bunch of Cosplaytriots moaning about haircuts while real men who served die in hospitals without any real support from the right wing in their hour of need.

Stay home like Trump did in Vietnam.

Real men who served, and who did they serve. Oh that’s right whoever paid. That’s called a mercenary

Real question:

Does anyone have update on the homeless, shouldn’t they be all but wiped out by now?

One more:

What’s the difference between being asymptomatic and being immune?

There has been a failure to remind everyone that the stated goal of the policy — total lockdown and whole-population isolation — has been accomplished in most of the United States, including the epicenter of New York. Specifically, two curves, hospitalizations per day and deaths per day, have flattened. The goal was to prevent hospital overcrowding and, aside from a few in the New York area, hospitals were not overcrowded. Today, most hospitals stand under-filled, necessitating layoffs of personnel. More importantly, it was never a policy goal to eliminate all cases of COVID-19. That is impossible, unnecessary and illogical, when 99 percent of infected people have no significant illness from it.

There has been a failure to reassure everyone that we fully anticipate more cases will occur, whether we test or not, with continuing relaxation of today’s isolation. Since millions of people have the highly contagious infection, and half are entirely asymptomatic, that spread is fully expected. Even though we will see headlines sensationalizing the next projection, the models are already set to adjust upward for less strict isolation. We also know those same models will project more deaths, because they extrapolate from what happened in the past. Governors rushed to confine everyone in low-risk groups, yet failed to protect nursing homes, the one group needing strict isolation and testing from day one. Due to that inexplicable error, nursing home residents constitute most of the deaths in many states and more than a third nationwide. The coming projection uptick is not a cause for fear or panic. It only reinforces the need for new policies targeted to specifically protect that clearly defined high-risk group.

There has been a failure to educate the public that the overall fatality rate is not only far lower than previously thought but is extremely low in almost everyone other than the elderly. In Detroit’s Oakland County, 77 percent of deaths were of those over 70; 92 percent were of people over 60, similar to what was noted in New York and worldwide. While somehow escaping attention, updated infection fatality rates are less than or equal to seasonal flu for those under 60 in France, Spain and the Netherlands. Less than 1 percent of deaths occur in the absence of underlying conditions. Of the exceptionally rare deaths in children in New York City, only one tragic case out of 15,756 COVID-19 deaths — 0.006 percent — was a child without a known underlying condition. Similarly, the likelihood of serious disease requiring hospitalization is far higher for older people and those with certain underlying conditions. In New York City, the hospitalization rate for those over age 75 is approximately 10 times that for ages 18-44, and more than 100 times that for those under 18. Under 1 percent of New York City hospitalizations have been patients under 18.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/498180-were-risking-national-suicide-if-we-dont-adjust-our-pandemic-response

asymptomatic: not symptoms, but able to 'shed' the virus. aka, still contagious.

immune: not infected, not contagious.

i should note: i have found no reliable demonstration that infection leads to long term immunity with covid-19. you can get the flu more than once, you can't get chickenpox more than once. 'herd immunity' assumes it's not mutating subtly enough to get past the antibodies created during first infection, OR that the body keeps producing the required antibodies for a long timwe after infection (not always the case).

Jeljo wrote:

Listen, all Trump wants to do is keep this country shut down for as long as possible, playing the passive aggressive leader that he is, hoping that we withstand this before the elections and come out the other side in better shape so he reaps the rewards. However, I'm not sure that strategy is going to work. This will take longer than his handlers predicted. That being said, he will more than likely win re-election.

If we open up the country, most of the trump voters will die. Without the geriatric vote, the republican party is doomed. And let's not forget the question that Romney asked in 2012. Are you better now than 4 years ago? Unemployment up 10%, national deficit up 800%. A 100k+ of dead americans. Those are going to be some tough headwinds for anyone to overcome.

I can't wait to see trump and biden debate. What is the over/under on coherent sentences during that debate? Like 2? I think we have to go back to nixon to find a worse candidate for POTUS.

Recent data out of Georgia is not good, but it is too early to know whether the current numbers out of Georgia are the result of reopening or are people who contracted COVID 19 during lockdown. It can be 4-6 weeks from the date of infection to death. People spend weeks on ventilators before doctors give up and take people off life support to die. We will not be able to draw solid conclusions about Georgia's reopening until mid-June.

But the debate over reopening is incomplete because it is always presented as a choice between improving the economy and continuing the damage to the economy due to lockdowns. The real choice is between reopening the economy where the virus is still in unchecked community spread and only people who are willing to risk infection go out and keeping a strict lockdown in place until we reach very low infection rates (like S. Korea) where outbreaks can be effectively traced and isolated. In the latter situation, everyone can participate in reopening with good social distancing practices because the risk of infection is incredibly remote. The reopen early strategy means very weak economic recovery because a significant portion of the population is self isolating because infection rates are still high. Waiting to reopen until infection rates are very low means more short term pain, but much better long term recover prospects if infection rates are kept to a minimum and outbreaks are quickly contained.

Precious Roy wrote:

Recent data out of Georgia is not good, but it is too early to know whether the current numbers out of Georgia are the result of reopening or are people who contracted COVID 19 during lockdown. It can be 4-6 weeks from the date of infection to death. People spend weeks on ventilators before doctors give up and take people off life support to die. We will not be able to draw solid conclusions about Georgia's reopening until mid-June.

In 2-3 weeks after reopening, we should be able to tell if cases spike. And then another 2-3 weeks to see what the death toll turns out to be. To some extent a spike is to be expected and nothing to worry about. It is the size of the spike that matters. Going up to 60-70 deaths isn't the end of the world. If they double 2 more times to 200+/day over the next couple weeks, then you screwed up.

WFH mileage wrote:

Wow.....this is all so interesting! I was planning on voting for Trump, then someone posted a leftist article, and upon reading the headline, I changed my mind immediately! THEN, someone else posted an article from right-leaning website, and I changed my mind AGAIN! It just keeps going back and forth!

I'm so glad everyone on the Internet is educating me with unbiased information so I can make an informed decision! :)

I know your post is satirical but I chuckle because i always had this thought. When folks throw out these anti-left and anti-right rants, articles, videos or whatever what is their end goal? Do they really think that they are swaying people opinions?

The stats say that most folks don't even care about politics when you look are voter turnout. Those that do pretty much have their ideology set, I would think.