Will Nico Young's younger brothers surpass him? They are faster than he was in 9th grade

As to the original question: I suspect Lex and Leo will surpass Nico's track times in the 800, 1600 and 3200. As sophomores they will run faster than Nico did as a sophomore. I don't think they'll run faster than 8:40 as juniors, but they might be able to do it as seniors. I do not see either of the winning the individual national champ in XC, but would not be at all surprised to see them as All-American's their junior and senior year, collecting another team title at least once.

USA USA wrote:

First they need to pass the Hoeys and McGortys before they even think about the Ingebrigtsens.

That’s along the lines of what I was thinking. I assume that these boys are twins. If they “only” end up as good as the Rosa twins that would be extremely impressive.

It's possible, but Nico didn't break out until his sophomore track season, and his improvement of 25 seconds (9:05 to 8:40) from sophomore year to junior year in the 3200m is completely unprecedented at that level. Nico is an exceptional talent, and anybody, including his brothers, will be fighting against the odds to surpass him.

USA USA wrote:

You need a new odds maker . NAU has had 2 guys in history go sub 13:20 so the odds are not in favor of Young doing it.

Yeah but have you looked at their high school times? Tyler Day only ran 9:28 in high school. Nico's current 3k converts to about a 13:40 5k. Predicting Nico at about ~13:30 this year is not an insult to NAU, it's a testament to the fact that Young is a generational talent.

johnfromSJ wrote:

Yeah, Jakob would totally destroy Nico in a race when they do compete. I don't think Nico has a chance of ever catching up to Jakob as he looks to be already maxing out his potential. He looks to be straining with his form, and doesn't seem to be able to run any quicker. I may be wrong though. Look how ugly Drew Hunter's form was in HS and he still managed to improve.

I think you need to take another look at Nico's form. His upper body is a bit tight, but his lower body biomechanics are really efficient. He's also improved significantly since last year. He's nowhere near maxed out.

You need to look at the history at NAU of Americans and Foreigners who have gone there through the years. There have been dozens of guys who were high school studs including a handful who are there today. Yes Young can break 13:20 but that is much different than saying the odds are that he will do it. It is more likely that he will run 13:30 than 13:15. He has done some workouts in high school that would equal the NAU colkege workouts. If he ran 8:40 on the work that Bosley was doing in high school, I would see more upside.

USA USA wrote:

You need a new odds maker . NAU has had 2 guys in history go sub 13:20 so the odds are not in favor of Young doing it.

how fast were those guys in high school? nico will run sub 13:20 next year. especially with the help of being at altitude.

flotrack rocker wrote:

His coach also claims to be a 9 time national champ. He won about as many as you and me.

every goal time nicos coach said he was gonna hit, nico hit. he said nico will run 8:40 at arcadia (he ran 8:40), he said nico was gonna run 13:40 at woodbridge (he ran 13:39) he said nico was gonna try to break the clovis course record at 14:24 (he ran 14:28) he said nico was gonna run around 7:55 for 3k (he ran 7:56)

You mean guys like Lopez Lomong who has won US titles in distances from 1500-10,000 who ran 3:42 in high school? He didn't come close to 13:20 as a freshman. Or Futsum Z who ran 8:47 in HS? He managed a 13:50 as a freshman. Luis Grijalva ran 8:45 in HS. He didn't break 14 as a freshman. Do you realize in the entire NCAA outdoor 2019 only 3 guys went sub 13:30 and nobody broke 13:20? So Young is going to win the NCAA 5k outdoor next year? He will be lucky to be top 5 at NAU let alone being the best in the country. You are insane.

What are the odds that an NAU runner drops his 5000m high school pr by ten seconds? Pretty great, even using 3k/2M conversions, I'd say.

There is no reason to think he would have run 13:30 when 25 NCAA guys ran faster than him in the 3000 this year but only 3 guys ran under 13:30 in the outdoor 5000 last year. Why would he move up from 26th to 3rd or 4th in the 5000? If anything, he would probably lose ground to older guys who have trained more. Why did Grijalva run 8:45 in high school and not break 14 as a freshman at NAU? He is on the verge of being a world class runner. But sure, Young will run 30 seconds faster than he ran.

Nico could break 13:30 as a "freshman" if he redshirts or there is no track season next year.

flotrack rocker wrote:

You mean guys like Lopez Lomong who has won US titles in distances from 1500-10,000 who ran 3:42 in high school? He didn't come close to 13:20 as a freshman. Or Futsum Z who ran 8:47 in HS? He managed a 13:50 as a freshman. Luis Grijalva ran 8:45 in HS. He didn't break 14 as a freshman. Do you realize in the entire NCAA outdoor 2019 only 3 guys went sub 13:30 and nobody broke 13:20? So Young is going to win the NCAA 5k outdoor next year? He will be lucky to be top 5 at NAU let alone being the best in the country. You are insane.

These is no reason to think Nico could not run 13:30's right now. He ran 7:56 in Feb. Considering that was on an indoor track and very early in the year it would be expected for him to challenge the HS national 5000m record on 13:37 if he went for it or not.

Nico also won NXN from the gun in a way no HS boy has ever won NXN. It will go down as the most dominate if not one of the most dominate performances in HS history. Nico Destroyed Luis Graijalva 's cross country course records and times. You seem to want to prove to everyone Nico wont be an amazing athlete in HS or college. It's obvious you will say anything to try and get your point across with not real facts.

There is never 100% anyone will run fast, slow or whatever. Enough with the blows to Nico. The kid is a beast and the best the US has seen in HS in a long time.

Delusional. Lots of reasons to think he could not. Ritz dominated more than Nico and ran 13:44. I agree some chance exists. To say 'no reason to think' someone would not break a strong record sounds insane. This is not the HS gym class mile record. This is the US HSR.

Nico is not even the fastest this year in the mile.

13:45 is generous.

Did the original post say his brother ran 15:04 as a 9th grader? Is this a 5k course or 3-mile course? Very impressive if 15:04 5k XC in 9th.

Did you miss something. Nico has no races this spring. No chance to run the Mile. We have this thing called Covid-19 going on.

13:45 is generous? homie his 7:56 converts him to a sub 13:40 and he ran that February, let’s not forget that at NXN he made josh methner, cole sprout, matt strangio, cruz cullpepper ect look like hobby joggers. josh methner is the second faster 3 mile runner in history (behind nico). cole sprout has run 8:40 and 14:16 for the 5k. matt strangio has an 8:47 and a 4:03 time trial 1600. cruz cullpepper has a 4 flat mile and nico made a joke out of them. it’s like like he surged and beat them. he went from the gun and not one of them could hold his shoulder. like i said if his coach said he could’ve been in the 13:30s he would’ve been in the 13:30s. his coach has failed to predict an off time about nico.

flotrack rocker wrote:

You mean guys like Lopez Lomong who has won US titles in distances from 1500-10,000 who ran 3:42 in high school? He didn't come close to 13:20 as a freshman. Or Futsum Z who ran 8:47 in HS? He managed a 13:50 as a freshman. Luis Grijalva ran 8:45 in HS. He didn't break 14 as a freshman. Do you realize in the entire NCAA outdoor 2019 only 3 guys went sub 13:30 and nobody broke 13:20? So Young is going to win the NCAA 5k outdoor next year? He will be lucky to be top 5 at NAU let alone being the best in the country. You are insane.

but the promising thing about nico is he keeps making huge improvements each year. sophomore track season he ran 9:05 3200. junior XC season he ran 14:02 3 miles and 5th at NXN. junior track season he went 8:40. senior XC season he went 13:39 and embarrassed an absolutely stacked NXN field. senior track season he went 7:56 3k in February. he’s made steady improvement so when people say he’s gonna burn out because they saw one workout he did blows my mind. they don’t care to look at the leaps nico has made each season.

I wish he could race this summer and LRC would do a betting contest. Far fewer than 50% would predict under 13:40.

you mean when people like you said Nico couldn't break 8min in the 3000m at Millrose.

How did that workout?