Lance Armstrong and the Marathon

I've run 2:40 off of mediocre training, so I'm betting that a world class endurance athlete could certainly best that time if he worked at it. Give the guy a little respect athletically.

I ran 2:24 at age 32 on a whim. Training only 70 miles / wk. and only racing 5K on the road (14:42 PB that year). Lance is no doubt a thousand times tougher and a thousand times more talented that I could ever hope to be.

Contrary to what some people think, the marathon is not that hard until you start getting to about 2:12 or so. I think most decent male runners under 40 could break 2:30 if they put their mind to it. It's more mental than physical IMHO. It's aerobically easy, the tough part is fighting your fatigue and the onset of soreness.

Convince the Gallowalkers of this "fact"!

Reality Czech wrote:

Contrary to what some people think, the marathon is not that hard until you start getting to about 2:12 or so.

Okay, it's becoming more and more apparent that many of the people posting here have never even sniffed at 2:45 for the marathon. Look, if you have some talent, 90 minutes a day for training, and choose a reasonable race course, then 2:45 is not that hard. It doesn't take tons of miles - a talented individual could average 60 miles a week and easily accomplish 2:45, if not faster, and I think Lance qualifies as sufficiently talented in this arena.

I think everyone that posts from here on out should post their marathon PR and/or half-marathon so we all know if you have any idea what it takes to run 2:30, etc. If you haven't run either race, then why should we care what you think? If you have a relevant degree in something related to this string (exercise science, etc.), then you can note that in lieu of your PRs. Hey it's a little embarrassing, but here are my PRs (which did not include heavy mileage at all; I'm in law school and don't have time for heavy mileage; plus, I'm married - nuff said):

marathon: 2:40:04, Philly '04

1/2 mar.: 1:12:56, Hamilton Half Marathon

its lance wrote:

The guy has beat cancer and won 7 straight Tours. I don't think anything is quite out of reach for that guy, so 2:15 certainly shouldn't if he wants it.

Well if nothing is quite out of reach, then he should go for sub-2:00. If I was Lance and anything was possible, I'd just crush the current WR by over 4 minutes.

ok, here goes:

'thon: 2H24 london 2003

half: 69'30 bath 2003

I think it comes down to what you think Lance will do.

If you think he can run a 2H15 'thon off 4 months training, averaging 70 miles a week, then my feeling is that you're sadly mistaken.

But yeah let's say that's what he did: 70 miles a week for four months... Given his little background as a runner, I guess he might manage a sub 2H40 (probably not sub 2H30 though)... Now give the guy more time to improve, and develop his running muscles and appropriate physological pathways - say 5 years- and get him to gradually run 120M a week... There's no doubt he'll run sub 2H15...

As I've posted before though, the question is: could he (should he?) be bothered?

Marathon PR 2:33:58

Half-Marathon PR 1:09:40

Been trying to drop under 2:30 for the past couple of years.

Most here have no idea what running a marathon requires. It's not simply a matter of "Well my 10k or half PR is this, so I should easily run this for a marathon". Hell, with my half PR I should easily be under 2:30. The fatigue and damage done during a marathon is different than any other race you'll ever run. Unless you've run a marathon you have no idea. Now, if you train reasonably you should be able to predict your 10k or half-marathon time from a 5k race, at least you'll be close. Not so with a marathon because of the eccentric muscle fatigue that requires TIME to train and adapt to. TIME is what Lance doesn't have. Like I said earlier, if this was 1998 he would be close to 2:20 by now.

Alan

Here's some perspective from a competitive cyclist...

A world class runner would, generally, fare very well after a few years of training as a cyclist. They would get shelled in anaerobic events like criteriums because they have no top end, but they would naturally excel at hilly road races.

Triathlete Chris Lieto started taking up cycling in the hardest district in the nation, Northern California. He competed in the Pro 1/2s and recently won a difficult stage race. These are domestic pros he raced against here.

Three years ago, collegiate runner, Justin England, decided to take up competitive cycling. Just like everyone else, he started in the amateur newbie class (Cat5), where he won the majority of his races. He cat'd up in quick fashion and became a pro. Not just any pro. He became Chris Horner's right hand man at Webcor. He also recently smashed a 15 year old hill climb record at Mt. Tamalpasi by 3 minutes!!! This was a record that pros had been trying to beat this whole time because it comes with a cash prize.

In the same sense, I do not hesitate to say that the majority of world-class runners could enter the roadie world and become domestic pros within 3 years given the right training. The folks that "dance on the pedals" in the mountains (just like Lance), are usually runners as well. The sports lend themselves well to each other.

Finally, it's not like Lance has zero running background. A 2:30 is more then manageable for him after a year of real training. And yes, he's "retired", but he retired at the absolute pinnacle of his sport and only a week ago. It's not like he's out of shape now. Quite to the contrary, many folks think he's in the best shape of his whole career.

Damn Crash! Don't you know better than to post knowledgable opinions based on factual examples at Let's Run? You are going to ruin the board with reasoned and sensible stuff like this.

Great - now this thread is going to be deleted because it got smart!

Well,

Lance Armstrong surely has the aerobic capacity to run a 2:15 marathon. Its no question that he has one of the best Vo2 max's in the world and can handle oxgen debt as good as anyone, but I think one the import questions to answer is how well his body will handle the impact of running. biking has little to no impact on your legs, meaning you can train your body much harder on a bike than you can running. Think if professional runners could train for 3 hours a day at a time, without worrying about stress fractures and tearing tendonds and planter facistis. You'd have world records that are much better than the current ones.

We'd have to find out how well his mechanics would suit running a 26 mile race. I would venture to say he'd try to apply the same type of mentality to a marathon as he did to cycling, which would lead to injury. If armstrongs body can handle hundreds of miles of impact, which is different than hudreds of miles of non-impact, then he might have a shot, I'd venture to say it would take him at least 2 years to run under 2:20.

If your V02 Max is 79 and you haven't broken 15min for a 5k...then it's obvious you don't have that killer instinct. Here's a suggestion...train and maybe you'll break 15. You suck.

Since when was running 2:15 part of a "normal life. Of calm". That guy is downplaying it like everyone can do it.

I do train, A LOT, and yes I know I suck. I'm just pointing out that Vo2max means absolutely squat. If you're 5'6' and 140-45 pounds like me you have a lot of weight to carry around and it slows you down. The catch is that even if I could drop 10-15 pounds of muscle the majority of that would be in the legs which would drop the Vo2max. So like I said, Vo2max doesn't mean squat.

Alan

First, I was put off by Armstrong's seemingly overconfident arrogance concerning his marathon ability. But then I stepped out of my own reality and into his.

Here's the Lance Armstrong reality check:

Being an athlete is the man's profession, not his past-time. His training and money put him in contact with trainers to tell him what to run, when to run, and how fast to do so; likewise this supplies him with the necessary information for nutrition - what to eat, when to eat it, and how much. Training guides supplied, injuries tended to, and no obtrusive 8-hour day to get in the way.

He should achieve his goal.

And if he does run a marathon...he better achieve his goal. Otherwise his fate can be summed up in three simple words...

Michael - Jordan - Baseball!

There is no doubt that if anyone could run such a marathon in so little time then he's arguably the one to do it. Because yah, he's got the all of the money in the world to spend, access to the greatest coaches/nutritionists he can find, 24 hours of free time everyday, etc.

But the reality check comes in the fact that you can't just run a 2:15 because you decide to pursue it. It takes years. Shoot, less than 1% of actual runners can do it and these are people who've done it for 5, 10, 15, and even 20 years of their lives in to their thirties.

He won't do 2:15. That's obsurd. MAYBE high 2:30's if he really really trains hard and does things right. Oh and if he doesn't get injured (which actually my prediction is he gets injured and never races one leaving us all to wonder and debate it).

His weight might limit him. He said he was 165 when he finished the tour this year and stated that he will never be that light again the rest of his life. Even if he puts on just five pounds that would put him at 170 and there are not too many 170 pound 2:30 marathoners.

TO MANY CALCULATIONS!!!!!! Just let the guy run. Since when has running gotten so complicated...vO this and whatever.

I really feel like everyone is taking this to personally.

You have to realize that some people have something called TALENT! Running fast for Joe may be slow for Moe...

Sorry, but Lance is the sort of person who if he REALLY wants to do something...he'll do it.

After hearing interviews...I don't think he WANTS to take a shot at the American record...he wants to spend time with his kids. therefore, first marathon with minimal training...2:40 range...

HOWEVER, if he wants to make running his 'new mountain'...sub 2:15...but again, I don't think he wants to have a 'new climb.'

No, it sounded like he wanted to spend more time with Sheryl Crow than the kids.

But still, supporting her career can be that obstacle that conveniently stands in his way of training.

he's not 165, maybe 150.