Heps Track 2010

With the usual apologies if I've screwed up the arithmetic (I caught two mistakes; there may be more), here's how the projected scoring looks, based on the listings at Direct Athletics (and ignoring fractions of a point):

Men

Cornell 223, Princeton 176, Penn 62, Dartmouth 51, Columbia 45, Harvard/Brown/Yale 41

Women

Cornell 143, Columbia 120, Princeton 114, Brown 111, Penn 90, Harvard 62, Yale 36, Dartmouth 35

Not much to add to previous remarks:

The listings at DA include wind-aided (sometimes very wind-aided) marks.

The DA listings ignore the (im)plausibility of some doubles and triples.

Some very strong potential pointscorers in certain events, typically the distance runs and multis, do not yet have a mark.

I suspect both meets will go down to the final events (event?). The women's meet has five potential winners, definitely including Penn (which, after Cornell, has top-six marks in the most events). Brown is the "stealth" candidate on the women's side, with only 26 points projected on the track but huge scoring potential in the field.

Given the closeness of the projected scores, I can understand people's picking the home teams as the slightest of favorites. But I'm the Big Red Fan:

GO CORNELL!

Columbia women are having a great season so far, what are their chances at a Team title?

shadyMountain wrote:

Columbia women are having a great season so far, what are their chances at a Team title?

The Columbia women are strong in the sprints and jumps, but not much in terms of throws and distance. I think Cornell and Princeton have better odds of winning the conference title on the women's side because they are more well rounded than Columbia. I'd say 40% Princeton, 35% Cornell, 20% Columbia, 15% another team.

BRF: does your analysis include the mens 4x8 relay?

Also, who is planning on going to watch? I know Hepstrack will be posting results on their website as things get available, and they're going to have someone at the meet using Twitter to try to do play-by-play postings (let's see how fast her fingers type!)

shadyMountain wrote:

Columbia women are having a great season so far, what are their chances at a Team title?

Based on their 2d place indoors and the projected outdoor scores in my previous post: their chances for a win are pretty good. A couple of caveats, looking at the DA lists (

) :

The lists have been updated since my post and now include top marks from the indoor season. I haven't recalculated the projected points--will someone do that, please?

I doubt Sharay Hale will run the 100, 200, AND 400. She's currently the list leader in all three.

OTOH Jackie Drouin, the current 1500 leader, is probably capable of grabbing some points in the 3000.

CU's weakness in the throws obviously hurts in an outdoor meet. Brown benefits commensurately.

Columbia should be in the thick of the team race through most of the meet. They have a decent chance to win; probably aren't the favorites, but I'm not sure *any* team is--this meet is too much of a tossup.

C/M Runner wrote:

BRF: does your analysis include the mens 4x8 relay?

Yes, it did.

However, my virtual scoring did not include any of the several dozen marks (from indoor) that were added to the list yesterday. It'd be interesting to see what the projected scores look like when those marks are added in--the Princeton women, in particular, pick up many points in the 3,000/5,000 when you add the indoor times.

Anybody have an hour or so to run another virtual meet?

Why combine the indoor and outdoor times together on one performance list? I don't think it's right to do that since I feel the indoor marks are not relevant to what the athletes can do for the outdoor season. For some of the field events, the majority of the top marks are from indoor, which skews what has been done during the outdoor season.

C/M Runner wrote:

Why combine the indoor and outdoor times together on one performance list? I don't think it's right to do that since I feel the indoor marks are not relevant to what the athletes can do for the outdoor season. For some of the field events, the majority of the top marks are from indoor, which skews what has been done during the outdoor season.

I actually agree, but still think it would be *interesting* to score the combined-marks list.

To pick one example off the top of my head, Hewitt hasn't been close to her indoor 6m LJ for ~3mos. And, of course, some other top indoor performers haven't even competed outdoors.

If anything, it will be quite interesting to see the start lists when they are published on Friday evening. I'm really curious if Sharay Hale will try the 100/200/400 double. Katy Jay did that in 2002, correct? She didn't win all three but she did place top 2 in all three of them in the year she did it. Sharay ran the 100m last weekend at the Princeton Elite Meet. Did she run that meet so she could get used to the Princeton final straightaway? Or is is going to try and do a Meredith Rainey: win the 400m in record time WHILE scoring big points in three other events?

Speaking of Meredith Rainey, I heard she may be coming to Heps this year to watch since her record could be broken this year.

I may bail on the Heps this weekend, if the forecasts deteriorate further. Thunderstorms on Sat/high of 60 on Sun: not my cuppa.

I was actually at the first two women's Ivy meets, many moons ago, and the weather was terrific at both--in Ithaca and Hanover, no less. Heps weather has often sucked in recent years, IIRC...

Last year at Penn the weather was fine (if anything, a bit sunny both days). But the weather will make the weekend a bit more interesting (I just hope I can keep my stuff dry!)

C/M Runner wrote:

Last year at Penn the weather was fine (if anything, a bit sunny both days). But the weather will make the weekend a bit more interesting (I just hope I can keep my stuff dry!)

Looks like the chance of rain for Saturday is 50/50, but its supposed to be warm. Sunday is supposed to be clear, but windy, and low 60s.

Tiger Guy wrote:

Looks like the chance of rain for Saturday is 50/50, but its supposed to be warm. Sunday is supposed to be clear, but windy, and low 60s.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/08540

Looks like I need to pack some rain gear. Thanks for the heads up.

So, who will win?

C/M Runner wrote:

Tiger Guy wrote:

Looks like the chance of rain for Saturday is 50/50, but its supposed to be warm. Sunday is supposed to be clear, but windy, and low 60s.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/08540

Looks like I need to pack some rain gear. Thanks for the heads up.

So, who will win?

Actually, you may not, it seems like the largest rain threat is noon and earlier, so hopefully it won't effect the meet too much.

Well I'll bring it just in case. I live in PA so we'll be getting the same weather as Princeton, so I might be coming over with rain gear on.

When and where will first start list be published?

Typically the coaches meeting does not take place until late afternoon/early evening (like 5pm), which is where they decide the entries and any changes to the schedule. I would say the entry lists would be up by 9pm on hepstrack.com (at least Brett will have a post up when the lists become available, with directions to get to the listing. He's close with the timing squad and has connections with the League).

danke

Starting lists for Saturday are available:

http://hepstrack.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/heps_sat_startlists.pdf

Sunday's start list is available as well, but it will be updated with the results from the trials on Saturday night:

http://hepstrack.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/heps_sun_startlists.pdf

Thanks for the links. Looks like Hale is skipping the 400.

And it looks like I may be missing the meet--just too much going on. Nerts. Have fun, all.

GO BIG RED!